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Illinois House Eight polls: Duckworth up, Walsh vulnerable

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Updated with response from Krishnamoorthi, Walsh campaigns....

WASHINGTON--Illinois Democratic House hopeful Tammy Duckworth has a 59 percent to 17 percent lead over primary rival Raja Krishnamoorthi, according to a campaign poll released to a variety of news outlets on Wednesday.

The winner in the north suburban 8th congressional district fight goes on to battle freshman Tea Party Rep. Joe Walsh (R-Ill.) in November. Walsh has been targeted by Democrats in the Democratic leaning district and on Wednesday, a Democratic SuperPac--the House Majority Pac--released a poll showing Walsh may face an uphill battle.

Note: I did not see the either of the entire polls and was shown only the poll memos.

The House Majority Pac poll, done by Public Policy Polling concludes, "In Illinois' 8th District, only 32% of voters think Congressman Joe Walsh deserves to be reelected, while 57% think it's time for someone new. Congressional Republicans have a 30/57 favorability rating and only 28% of voters approve of Walsh's job performance while 44% disapprove. Walsh trails a generic Democratic opponent 49-35 and may be the most vulnerable Republican incumbent in the country."

The Duckworth poll by Normington, Petts & Associates: 400 likely Democratic primary voters was conducted from Jan. 10-12 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.

Excerpt from poll memo: "She holds a three-to-onemargin with key constituencies: voters who say the will "definitely vote," voters who voted in at least two Democratic primaries out of the last four, voters age 50 and older, liberals and pro-choice voters. In addition to her solid vote support, Duckworth is also the choice of 65% of likely voters when asked
who has the best chance to beat Joe Walsh in November.

"Just 13% opt for Krishnamoorthi.

"After positives messages from both candidates are simulated, Duckworth maintains her 59% support while Krishnamoorthi is able to climb to just 23%. So while we expect the race to tighten somewhat as Krishnamoorthi communicates his message to voters he neither gains significant traction among undecided voters nor is able to cut into Duckworth's support."

Updates

React from Walsh spokesman Justin Roth: "Like the New York Times that only gave Congressman Walsh a 12% chance to win the last election, PPP is nothing more than a liberal polling firm that has no credibility.
"
The election is over 10 months away and Congressman Walsh has not really started campaigning in the district, as he has devoted his time to representing his constituents in the 8th district. Once the campaign begins and voters see the contrast between either of these liberal candidates who will be a rubber stamp for Obama's policies, and an independent voice in Congressman Walsh, the choice will be clear. The Congressman looks forward to a spirited debate on the issues as the campaign begins."


React from Krishnamoorthi campaign:

There are two months before Election Day. Raja has the resources to get his message out and he has the stronger message.

"This campaign has barely begun. If polls two months out predicted elections, Hillary Clinton would be the President, and Rick Perry would be the Republican nominee. Leaders in our district have overwhelmingly endorsed Raja as their choice and I'm confident that when voters get the chance to hear from both candidates, they'll make Raja their nominee. Raja is the only candidate in this race with the economic experience and a detailed plan to turn our economy around by helping to create jobs for the middle class." - Mike Murray, Deputy Campaign Manager
__________________________________

below, poll memo from Duckworth pollster.....

M E M O R A N D U M
To: Interested Parties
From: Jill Normington
Date: January 25, 2012
The following is a summary of findings from a telephone survey conducted among 400 likely Democratic primary voters in the new 8th Congressional District of Illinois. Interviews were conducted January 10-12, 2012.

The sampling error for this survey is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

With less than 60 days before the Illinois primary, former Assistant Secretary of Veterans Affairs Tammy
Duckworth is in a dominant position to win the Democratic nomination for the Eighth Congressional
District.

Duckworth enjoys 83% name identification with 67% of the electorate rating her favorably and just 7%
evaluating her unfavorably. This glowing assessment is enviable for any candidate but for one in the
expensive Chicago media market, it is literally worth millions.

She leads former Illinois Deputy treasurer Raja Krishnamoorthi 59% to 17%.

She holds a three-to-onemargin with key constituencies: voters who say the will "definitely vote," voters who voted in at least two Democratic primaries out of the last four, voters age 50 and older, liberals and pro-choice voters. In addition to her solid vote support, Duckworth is also the choice of 65% of likely voters when asked
who has the best chance to beat Joe Walsh in November.

Just 13% opt for Krishnamoorthi.

After positives messages from both candidates are simulated, Duckworth maintains her 59% support
while Krishnamoorthi is able to climb to just 23%. So while we expect the race to tighten somewhat as
Krishnamoorthi communicates his message to voters he neither gains significant traction among
undecided voters nor is able to cut into Duckworth's support.

It should be noted that this informed vote is
nearly identical to the informed vote from our July poll, which showed Duckworth ahead 60% to 21%.

As veteran strategist David Axelrod said, "I have never seen anyone overcome a 42-point deficit this late
in the race."

Duckworth continues to build a solid campaign. She has raised more than a million dollars (outraising
Krishnamoorthi every quarter she has been in the race) and enjoys the endorsements of Senator Dick
Durbin, SEIU Illinois as well as nearly a dozen other labor unions, EMILY's List and VoteVets.


Duckworth is extremely well-positioned to win in March and pick up this seat for Democrats in the
general election against Tea Partier Joe Walsh.

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Lynn Sweet

Lynn Sweet is a columnist and the Washington Bureau Chief for the Chicago Sun-Times.

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This page contains a single entry by Lynn Sweet published on January 25, 2012 2:02 PM.

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