Rahm Emanuel is in a solid lead in the first public poll for the Chicago mayoral race taken since the field has shrunk to four major contenders: Emanuel, Gery Chico, Carol Moseley Braun and Miguel Del Valle.
The survey, conducted for Chicago Teamsters Joint Council 25 in the upcoming Chicago mayoral race shows former White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel far ahead of his rivals--both for the Feb. 22 primary and the April 5 run-off.
Emanuel is the only contender running significant television advertising in the contest, already spending close to $2 million dollars on spots.
The survey of 500 ikely voters was conducted for the Teamsters council--representing 22 locals in the Chicago area-- by Anzalone Liszt Research between Jan. 4-6, after state Sen. James Meeks and Rep. Danny Davis dropped out of the contest in order to try to consolidate black support for Braun.
The is is the second Teamsters Chicago mayoral poll. Read the results of the Nov. 8--14 survey here.
The January poll has a 4.4 percent margin of error. The Teamsters have a lot of members in the city and wanted a poll for guidance, I was told. I did not see the whole poll but did get a memo, which is at the bottom of this post.
The January Teamster poll head to head:
26 Moseley Braun
7 Del Valle
The November Teamster poll head to head:
13 Moseley Braun
4 Del Valle
Click below for the polling memo.
January 07, 2011
To: Interested Parties
Fr: John Anzalone / Jeff Liszt / Zac McCrary
Re: Summary of Polling Results Among Likely 2011 Municipal Voters in Chicago
Roughly six weeks from Election Day, Rahm Emanuel is maintaining a decisive lead in the race to become Chicago's next mayor. Emanuel's support has increased from the mid 30s into the 40s, and he continues to lead Carol Moseley Braun by 20+ points in a head-to-head scenario.
Moseley Braun still trails Emanuel by significant margins despite the termination of the Davis and Meeks campaigns - and Moseley Braun's near-unanimous name-identification and high unfavorables severely limit the potential to grow her vote as the campaign progresses.
Rahm Emanuel continues to hold a sizable, double-digit lead over his nearest rival and his favorable-to-unfavorable ratio has dramatically improved in the past few weeks.
• Emanuel currently receives 42% of the vote and leads Moseley Braun, his nearest competitor, by 16 points (Emanuel 42% / Moseley Braun 26% / Chico 10% / Del Valle 7%). Emanuel holds a better than 3:1 lead among white voters, a 16-point lead among Hispanic voters, and only trails Moseley Braun among African Americans by 11 points (32% Emanuel / 43% Moseley Braun).
• In November, Emanuel's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio was a solid 2:1 (58% Favorable / 29% Unfavorable), but has since grown to an extremely impressive ratio of better than 3:1 (68% Favorable / 22% Unfavorable).
• Moseley Braun's unfavorable rating (41%) is almost double that of Emanuel (22%), and the unfavorable ratings of Chico (20%) and Del Valle (18%) are similar to Emanuel's despite their lower name-identifications.
o Rahm Emanuel 68% Favorable / 22% Unfavorable
o Carol Moseley Braun 50% Favorable / 41% Unfavorable
o Gery Chico 44% Favorable / 20% Unfavorable
o Miguel Del Valle 30% Favorable / 18% Unfavorable
In a two-way head-to-head with Moseley Braun, Emanuel is over 50% and Moseley Braun shows very limited potential to expand her support.
• Emanuel's 22-point head-to-head lead (53% Emanuel / 31% Moseley Braun) is virtually unchanged from his margin before the attempted consolidation of African American support behind Moseley Braun (55% Emanuel / 32% Moseley Braun in November polling).
• Moseley Braun's near-universal name-identification (91%) and high unfavorable rating (41%) are indicative of a candidate with little ability to grow her vote share. In fact, more voters identify Emanuel as their "second choice" preference than choose Moseley Braun (16%).
• Moseley Braun's unfavorable rating exceeds her favorable rating among white voters (40% Favorable / 54% Unfavorable) and Hispanic voters (41% Favorable / 43% Unfavorable). And her 26% unfavorable rating with African Americans will make it difficult to ever fully consolidate her African American base.
Anzalone Liszt Research conducted N=500 live telephone interviews with likely 2011 municipal election voters in Chicago, IL. Interviews were conducted between January 4-6, 2011. Respondents were selected at random, with interviews apportioned geographically based on past voter turnout. Expected margin of sampling error is ±4.4% with a 95% confidence level.