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Rahm Emanuel lead grows in Teamsters/Anzalone Liszt Chicago mayoral poll

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Rahm Emanuel is in a solid lead in the first public poll for the Chicago mayoral race taken since the field has shrunk to four major contenders: Emanuel, Gery Chico, Carol Moseley Braun and Miguel Del Valle.

The survey, conducted for Chicago Teamsters Joint Council 25 in the upcoming Chicago mayoral race shows former White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel far ahead of his rivals--both for the Feb. 22 primary and the April 5 run-off.

Emanuel is the only contender running significant television advertising in the contest, already spending close to $2 million dollars on spots.

The survey of 500 ikely voters was conducted for the Teamsters council--representing 22 locals in the Chicago area-- by Anzalone Liszt Research between Jan. 4-6, after state Sen. James Meeks and Rep. Danny Davis dropped out of the contest in order to try to consolidate black support for Braun.

The is is the second Teamsters Chicago mayoral poll. Read the results of the Nov. 8--14 survey here.

The January poll has a 4.4 percent margin of error. The Teamsters have a lot of members in the city and wanted a poll for guidance, I was told. I did not see the whole poll but did get a memo, which is at the bottom of this post.

The January Teamster poll head to head:

42 Emanuel
26 Moseley Braun
10 Chico
7 Del Valle

The November Teamster poll head to head:

36 Emanuel
14 Davis
13 Moseley Braun
10 Chico
7 Meeks
4 Del Valle


Click below for the polling memo.

January 07, 2011

To: Interested Parties

Fr: John Anzalone / Jeff Liszt / Zac McCrary

Re: Summary of Polling Results Among Likely 2011 Municipal Voters in Chicago

Roughly six weeks from Election Day, Rahm Emanuel is maintaining a decisive lead in the race to become Chicago's next mayor. Emanuel's support has increased from the mid 30s into the 40s, and he continues to lead Carol Moseley Braun by 20+ points in a head-to-head scenario.

Moseley Braun still trails Emanuel by significant margins despite the termination of the Davis and Meeks campaigns - and Moseley Braun's near-unanimous name-identification and high unfavorables severely limit the potential to grow her vote as the campaign progresses.

Rahm Emanuel continues to hold a sizable, double-digit lead over his nearest rival and his favorable-to-unfavorable ratio has dramatically improved in the past few weeks.

• Emanuel currently receives 42% of the vote and leads Moseley Braun, his nearest competitor, by 16 points (Emanuel 42% / Moseley Braun 26% / Chico 10% / Del Valle 7%). Emanuel holds a better than 3:1 lead among white voters, a 16-point lead among Hispanic voters, and only trails Moseley Braun among African Americans by 11 points (32% Emanuel / 43% Moseley Braun).

• In November, Emanuel's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio was a solid 2:1 (58% Favorable / 29% Unfavorable), but has since grown to an extremely impressive ratio of better than 3:1 (68% Favorable / 22% Unfavorable).

• Moseley Braun's unfavorable rating (41%) is almost double that of Emanuel (22%), and the unfavorable ratings of Chico (20%) and Del Valle (18%) are similar to Emanuel's despite their lower name-identifications.
o Rahm Emanuel 68% Favorable / 22% Unfavorable
o Carol Moseley Braun 50% Favorable / 41% Unfavorable
o Gery Chico 44% Favorable / 20% Unfavorable
o Miguel Del Valle 30% Favorable / 18% Unfavorable

In a two-way head-to-head with Moseley Braun, Emanuel is over 50% and Moseley Braun shows very limited potential to expand her support.

• Emanuel's 22-point head-to-head lead (53% Emanuel / 31% Moseley Braun) is virtually unchanged from his margin before the attempted consolidation of African American support behind Moseley Braun (55% Emanuel / 32% Moseley Braun in November polling).

• Moseley Braun's near-universal name-identification (91%) and high unfavorable rating (41%) are indicative of a candidate with little ability to grow her vote share. In fact, more voters identify Emanuel as their "second choice" preference than choose Moseley Braun (16%).

• Moseley Braun's unfavorable rating exceeds her favorable rating among white voters (40% Favorable / 54% Unfavorable) and Hispanic voters (41% Favorable / 43% Unfavorable). And her 26% unfavorable rating with African Americans will make it difficult to ever fully consolidate her African American base.

Anzalone Liszt Research conducted N=500 live telephone interviews with likely 2011 municipal election voters in Chicago, IL. Interviews were conducted between January 4-6, 2011. Respondents were selected at random, with interviews apportioned geographically based on past voter turnout. Expected margin of sampling error is ±4.4% with a 95% confidence level.

3 Comments

The people of the city of Chicago apparently revel in the corruption. They actually seem to take pride that "The Chicago Way" is known worldwide as a way of describing corrupt government. Some people would decide to clean it up, but Chicago looks like they are going for more of the same. First they sent "The Chicago Way" to the White House, and now they are bringing some of it back to insure it continues in Chicago. Good luck to the windy city!

I'm not a math wiz, but it looks to me that Emanuel's lead narrowed, not grew. The correct headline should be: "Moseley Braun support doubles; in strong second to Emanuel."

Its interesting to me to see how many people still sleep while awake in this great city we call Chicago. We sit and pout over why do elected officials have more rights and breaks than us civilians but it’s clearly obvious that it’s because we sit by and allow them to. Rahm is not and hasn’t been a resident of Chicago, END OF STORY. Do we receive a break if taxes are not filed by April 15th? Or should we turn a blind eye to how many Chicago dollars are being spent to prove one way or the other?
Well I hope if you vote for Rahm that you will be happy with the $5 per hr boxes through downtown or how we will continue to have the worst streets and public schools in the country.

Since he has rode the coat tails of Obama thus far, I’m sure Rahm will continue to receive the same courtesy as our soon to be former Mayor Daley from our prestigious president...Turn a blind eye on what happens in Illinois!

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Lynn Sweet

Lynn Sweet is a columnist and the Washington Bureau Chief for the Chicago Sun-Times.

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This page contains a single entry by Lynn Sweet published on January 7, 2011 4:56 PM.

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