A poll conducted for Chicago Teamsters Joint Council 25 in the upcoming Chicago mayoral race shows former White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel far ahead of his rivals--both for the Feb. 22 primary and the April 5 run-off.
The survey of likely voters was conducted for the Teamsters council--representing 22 locals in the Chicago area-- by Anzalone Liszt Research between Nov. 8--14 with a 3.7 percent margin of error. The Teamsters have a lot of members in the city and wanted a poll for guidance, I was told. I did not see the whole poll but did get a detailed memo--and other information about the survey.
In polling for city contests--where politics play along race, ethnic and regional lines--knowing the racial makeup of the sample is important. The respondents were 44 percent White, 38 percent African American, 14 percent Hispanic and four percent other.
Former Sen. Carol Moseley Braun had the highest name identification--but also the highest unfavorables. "Emanuel's lead is not purely a function of high name recognition," the poll concluded.
The head to head:
14 Rep. Danny Davis
13 Moseley Braun
10 Attorney Gery Chico
7 State Sen. James Meeks
4 City Clerk Miguel Del Valle
The presence of three African American candidates also seems to have splintered an important city potential voting bloc. Among African Americans surveyed, 29 percent were for Emanuel to 22 percent for Davis, 18 percent for Moseley Braun, 14 percent for Meeks, 2 percent for Chico, 1 percent for Del Valle and 14 percent undecided.
Click below for the polling memo.
Below, polling memo for Teamsters Joint Council 25 conducted by Anzalone Liszt.....
Chicago, IL. Interviews were conducted between November 8-14, 2010. Respondents were selected at random, with interviews apportioned geographically based on past voter turnout. Expected margin of sampling error is ±3.7% with a 95% confidence level.
November 15, 2010
To: Interested Parties
Fr: John Anzalone / Jeff Liszt / Zac McCrary
Re: Summary of Polling Results Among Likely 2011 Municipal Voters in Chicago
Less than three months from Election Day, Rahm Emanuel holds a clear lead over the field of likely mayoral candidates. Emanuel leads primary and run-off scenarios by more than twenty points, and leads across racial and geographic lines. Emanuel is well known, but so are his nearest competitors (Davis / Mosley Braun) - indicating Emanuel's lead is not purely a function of high name recognition.
Chicago voters are aware of the residency issues raised in the campaign, but clearly believe Emanuel meets the necessary requirements. Voters also reject criticisms that Emanuel abandoned the President or does not have the appropriate temperament to be a successful mayor.
Rahm Emanuel holds a 22-point lead over his nearest rival, and leads across racial and geographic lines.
• Emanuel currently receives 36% of the vote and leads his nearest competitor by more than 2:1 (Emanuel 36% / Davis 14% / Mosley Braun 13% / Chico 10% / Meeks 7% / Del Valle 4%).
• Emanuel is leading among whites, African-Americans, and Hispanics - and in every one of the city's seven congressional districts.
• Emanuel also leads by 20-plus points in head-to-head scenarios against Danny Davis (Emanuel 54% / Davis 33%) and Carol Mosley Braun (Emanuel 55% / Mosley Braun 32%).
Carol Mosley Braun has the highest name-identification of any candidate tested, but Rahm Emanuel and Danny Davis are the only candidates who receive a majority favorable rating.
• Gerry Chico 31% Favorable / 16% Unfavorable - 47% Name ID
• Danny Davis 55% Favorable / 24% Unfavorable - 79% Name ID
• Miguel Del Valle 24% Favorable / 13% Unfavorable - 37% Name ID
• Rahm Emanuel 58% Favorable / 29% Unfavorable - 87% Name ID
• James Meeks 34% Favorable / 39% Unfavorable - 73% Name ID
• Carol Mosley Braun 48% Favorable / 42% Unfavorable - 90% Name ID
Chicago voters are aware of the recently-raised residency issues involving Rahm Emanuel, but an overwhelming majority believes he should be allowed to run.
• Almost two-thirds of the electorate is aware of the press reports involving Emanuel's residency (63%), and - by a greater than 3:1 margin (62% Yes / 20% No) - Chicago voters believe Emanuel meets the residency requirements to run for mayor. In fact, Emanuel's lead is actually slightly greater among voters who are aware of the residency issues than among those who are not aware.
• Just 24% agree that "because he has spent so much time living outside the city, Emanuel just doesn't understand the city well enough to be a good mayor". Almost three-quarters (72%) disagree.
Voters also reject the criticisms that Emanuel "abandoned" the President and does not have the appropriate personality to be an effective mayor.
• Only 36% of voters agree that, "Emanuel is an opportunist. He left his seat in Congress to work in the White House. Then he abandoned the President to run for Mayor before the difficult mid-term elections. Now, he wants to run for Mayor even though he has not lived here." A solid majority (59%) disagrees.
• Voters also disagree that "Rahm Emanuel's personality would make it hard for him to get things done as Mayor" (37% Agree/ 50% Disagree).