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Rep. Danny K. Davis Chicago mayoral poll: focus on African American vote

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Rep. Danny K. Davis (D-Ill.) commissioned a poll to test his viability as a Chicago mayoral candidiate, taken before Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D-Ill.) said last week he would not jump in the race. The Davis team shared a memo about the poll with me; I did not see the entire poll. Activists in Chicago's African American community are working through a process to find a consensus candidate. The Davis poll memo looks closely at Davis and former Sen. and Ambassador Carol Moseley Braun. The poll found Cook County Sheriff Tom Dart overall in the "favorability" lead followed by former White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel, who, the poll memo noted, did well among African American voters.

Click below for poll memo...

memo below, from Rep. Danny Davis.....

STATEMENT FROM CONGRESSMAN DANNY K. DAVIS
REGARDING MAYORAL POLL
Davis poll suggest that he is well positioned to be a formidable candidate for mayor. A poll commissioned by Congressman Danny K. Davis and conducted by the Blackstone Group, a Chicago Michigan Avenue based polling firm during the period September 29th through October 4th shows Congressman Danny K. Davis to be well positioned to win the election for Mayor of Chicago.

In the one on one matchups Davis and Mosley Braun demonstrated the strongest challenge to any other candidates in an April runoff.

The Blackstone Group said, "We can see the election being a run off with Emanuel, Dart and either Braun or Davis if Davis, for example, is able to capture the votes that would have gone to Braun, Meeks and Jackson. In this scenario, Emanuel would receive 41 percent of the vote, Dart would receive 24 percent and Davis would receive 35 percent.

The numbers look similar with Braun instead of Davis.

However, Emanuel does well against Davis and Braun one-on-one, even when just looking at African-American voters and Hispanic voters. Emanuel received 45 percent of the African- American vote and 58 percent of the Hispanic vote, compared to 36 percent and 20 percent respectively for Davis.

The numbers are similar one-on-one with Braun, but Braun does better
with Hispanic voters. This seems to be due to Emanuel's name recognition and generally positive image.

So, even if a coalition of African-American voters is possible, that does not guarantee success. However, there are a fair number of undecided voters so that adds another variable into the mix."


Davis favorability ratings place him among the top 3, next closest being 63% and all of the other potential candidates being 60% or under.

Candidate Ratings:
CANDIDATE FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE
NET
FAVORABILITY
SCORE
TOM DART 77% 23% 53%

RAHM EMANUEL 68% 32% 35%

DANNY DAVIS 66% 34% 31%

LUIS GUTIERREZ 63% 37% 26%

MIGUEL DEL VALLE 61% 39% 22%

CAROL MOSELEY BRAUN 56% 44% 12%

LARRY ROGERS 52% 48% 4%

EMIL JONES 48% 52% -4%

JAMES MEEKS 47% 53% -6%

RICKEY HENDON 42% 58% -15%

JESSE JACKSON JR 32% 68% -35%

Davis high name recognition, combined with his record of experience in the city council, county board and in Congress, plus his long and consistent record of coalition building and progressive politics makes him a formidable candidate for Mayor in the 2011 mayoral election.The margin of error is margins of error are 4.89% and 4.09% respectively based on n=402.

5 Comments

Interesting that this poll ignores the one Dem running with millions in his campaign war chest, who had the shout out from Mayor Daley, and is the key Latino candidate in the race who has major crossover appeal for other communities....Gery Chico.

Look for Gery Chico to be the runoff opponent, while Emanuel & Dart fight for the same base of support!

I attended the meeting of the coalition for a Black mayor. and it was clear that the so called media favorites and the fake polls are full of error well they wouldn't take a vote because the room was overall supporters of William Dock Walls you failed every-time to mention his name in the poll so if you dint ask people his name you won't have to deal with his overwhelming support for William Dock Walls for Mayor Chicago 2011

Davis ,poll is weak in several areas
1. The date the Poll was taken is well before the Mayoral fourm at Bethel church. William Walls stole the show there and clearly showed he has a more progressive vision for Chicago than Davis, Braun, Burris, Meeks or Hendon.
2.Williams Walls was not listed in either Poll.
William Walls is the people's candidate and the whole
community saw that fact at Bethel church.

I am disgusted with the climate and mindset of Black voters in Chicago. We are constantly manipulated and played against each other, all to our detriment. Bill Walls is the only straight shooter amongst the Black contenders for that 5th floor office downtown; anyone who knows anything about the situation knows that. With Bill in the drivers seat, there will be a return to the scenic view along Harold Washington Street.

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Please join us! Be A Liberty Chick....Be A Liberty Dude....Be a Liberty Kid!

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Lynn Sweet

Lynn Sweet is a columnist and the Washington Bureau Chief for the Chicago Sun-Times.

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