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Kirk slips past Giannoulias in poll

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WASHINGTON--GOP Illinois Senate nominee Rep. Mark Steven Kirk (R-Ill.) edges past Democratic rival Alexi Giannoulias in a poll released Tuesday. Read about it here.

Click below for links to poll and cross tabs.

below, from PPP.....


The last two months have not been good for Alexi Giannoulias, and Mark Kirk now leads him 37-33 in his bid to be the next Senator from Illinois.


A PPP survey taken a week and a half before the primary found Giannoulias up 42-34 on Kirk. But the closing stretch of the campaign did not go well for the Democratic nominee, with the attacks on him resulting in a final margin of victory that was a good deal less than what he had shown in earlier polls. Since then most of the news for him has been bad.

The main reason Giannoulias is behind is that he's getting only 54% of the Democratic vote while Kirk is winning 77% of the Republican vote. It's not that a lot of Democrats are planning to cross over and vote for Kirk, but 36% of them are undecided right now compared to just 16% of Republicans. That suggests Democratic voters don't really know what to make of Giannoulias' problems right now so they're just taking a wait and see approach to the race.

It's clear that the movement in Kirk's direction over the last two months has nothing to do with him and everything to do with Giannoulias. A majority of voters in the state have no opinion of Kirk and his favorability spread of 24/23 is almost identical to the 27/22 he sported in late January. Giannoulias has seen his favorability drop from 31% to 21% and his unfavorability increase from 19% to 28% in that period of time.

Also not helping Giannoulias is that President Obama is not nearly as popular in the state as he once was. 50% of voters approve of the job he's doing to 42% who disapprove. His 7% approval rating with home state Republicans is just as bad as it is with them nationally and his 81% standing with Democrat is about par for the course. He does continue to be more popular with independents in Illinois than he is in most states, with 51% of them approving of his job performance to 38% disapproving. Voters in the state express support for his health care plan by only a 46/43 margin.

The large mass of undecided Democrats are the critical bloc of voters in this race. If they come home to Giannoulias he'll probably still win- this continues to be a very Democratic state. But if they- unhappy with both Giannoulias and Pat Quinn- decide to just stay home or even worse to vote Republican Kirk has a pretty decent shot at winning this. There may not be a state in the country where Democrats have a weaker top of the ticket at this point than Quinn and Giannoulas.

This analysis is also available on our blog:

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/04/kirk-moves-ahead.html

4 Comments

Hallelujah! Illinois voters are finally getting the real picture. Giannoulias is incapable of telling the truth, has way too many failings, hasn't the aptitude of a snake nor the character of a rodent, and has no business being on the ticket. Plain and simple, Giannoulias is a crook and he is incompetent. One could easily say he is an incompetent crook too. Kirk will win hands down if Giannoulias remains on the ticket. The Whitehouse and Dick Durbin may support him but that will backfire for Giannoulias and for Obama/Durbin in the future.

I will run to the poll in November to cast my vote against Giannoulias.

"That suggests Democratic voters don't really know what to make of Giannoulias' problems right now so they're just taking a wait and see approach to the race."

Well, that's one guess. It could also mean Democrats aren't paying attention to the race yet, or they could have backed other candidates in the primary. In all likelihood, most voters don't know much of anything about the scandal. It takes time for stories to saturate beyond the news junkies.

"Also not helping Giannoulias is that President Obama is not nearly as popular in the state as he once was..."

In other words, the numbers could just be part of a national mood swing that has nothing to do with Kirk or Giannoulias.

I know all the media outlets do these polling stories but I don't believe it has any value over real news.

AND YOU ARE SURPRISED?

Alexi has no business being in the race, and November will be a landslide for Kirk. Alexi is incompetent, lacks integrity, and is nothing more than a 2 bit clown. We have enough clowns in Washington, it's time to "Send Out the Clowns"!

JD IS RIGHT. ALEXI SHOULD WITHDRAW FROM THE RACE. I THINK THE UPCOMING BLAGOJEVICH TRIAL WILL CREATE MORE PROBLEMS FOR ALEXI, AS IF HE DOESN'T HAVE ENOUGH ALREADY.

1. REZKO
2. GIORANGO
3. GIANNIS
4. BRIGHT START PROGRAM
5. BROADWAY BANK CATASTROPHE
6. LINCOLN HOTEL LOSS
7. NEW YORK SPRING BANK PROBLEMS

THE EVIDENCE CONTINUES TO MOUNT. ALEXI HAS NO QUALIFICATIONS FOR ANY OFFICE INCLUDING GARBAGE COLLECTOR.

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Lynn Sweet

Lynn Sweet is a columnist and the Washington Bureau Chief for the Chicago Sun-Times.

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This page contains a single entry by Lynn Sweet published on April 6, 2010 4:36 PM.

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