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Giannoulias campaign Illinois Senate polling memo

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Below, from the Giannoulias campaign....

March 1, 2010
Giannoulias Continues to Lead in Public Polling
Research 2000 Findings Continue Trend of Surveys Showing Illinois
Democrat Ahead in Race for Senate
To: Interested Parties

From: MichaelBocian,GreenbergQuinlanRosner Jason McGrath, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Last week's Research 2000 survey of likely voters in the November election for U.S. Senate in Illinois is another in a series of polls that indicate that Democrat Alexi Giannoulias has a clear advantage in the race for the open Senate seat.

We fully expect this to be a closely contested matchup throughout the year, but Giannoulias starts with the upper hand.

Giannoulias holds a solid 43 - 36 percent lead over Republican Congressman Mark Kirk in the new survey, with a nearly unified base and an even division of Independent voters, who are moving away from Democrats in many other races around the country. Giannoulias even enjoys better standing among voters (including Independent voters) than Kirk, even though Kirk escaped from his primary relatively unscathed, while Giannoulias faced hundreds of thousands of dollars in attack ads.

Table 1: Recent publicly released surveys from the Illinois U.S. Senate race between Alexi Giannoulias and Mark Kirk (Percent responding)

This survey comes on the heels of a number of others in recent weeks that show the Democrat with a real advantage over Kirk. A Public Policy Polling survey from late January showed Giannoulias with an 8-point, 42 - 34 percent lead. Our own survey last month indicated a 49 - 45 percent lead for Giannoulias (this survey asked undecided voters which candidate they leaned towards supporting, resulting in a lower undecided figure).

While polls are just a snapshot of a race, the last several weeks have provided observers with a small photo album of data to indicate that Alexi Giannoulias holds a very real lead over Mark Kirk.

1 Research 2000 survey conducted February 22-24, 2010 among 600 likely voters. This survey includes a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percent at the 95 percent confidence interval. 2 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research survey conducted February 9-14, 2010 among 600 likely voters. This survey includes a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percent at the 95 percent confidence interval.

3 Public Policy Polling survey conducted January 22-25, 2010 among 1,062 likely voters. This survey includes a margin of error of +/- 3.0 percent at the 95 percent confidence interval.

Washington, DC Seattle London Buenos Aries
Giannoulias - Kirk
2/22 - 2/24 (R2K)1
43 - 36
2/9 - 2/14 (GQR)2
49 - 45
1/22 - 1/25 (PPP)3
42 - 34
Giannoulias Continues to Lead in Public Polling
The Research 2000 survey included a few important pieces of information within the data that are worth noting:

 Giannoulias and Kirk are knotted up among Independent voters. This is the bad news for the Kirk campaign. Even in a down year for Democrats, Republicans in Illinois can't win without a large advantage among Independent voters. The fact that Kirk can only manage a tie is a bad early sign for him. This follows our survey from last month that showed Giannoulias with a wide 58 - 34 percent advantage among voters who consider themselves moderates.

 Giannoulias has positive standing across the electorate. Giannoulias is viewed favorably by both men and women, younger voters and older voters, Democrats and Independents. Overall, 49 percent of voters view him favorably and 34 percent view him unfavorably. Even though there was almost no negative advertising against Kirk in the primary, his standing is 42 percent favorable - 35 percent unfavorable, less positive than Giannoulias'.

 Barack Obama remains incredibly popular in Illinois. Echoing our findings from February, Barack Obama continues to demonstrate very strong standing with likely voters in his home state. Voters view Obama favorably by 60 - 36 percent. Independents view him favorably by a similar 61 - 35 percent. Clearly, Barack Obama is an asset for Democrats in Illinois this year.
 2010 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

1 Comment

If Giannoulias actually wins this race, the only reason will be because Barack Obama puts a big kiss on his cheek, and pushes Alexi's wheelchair over the finish line.

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Lynn Sweet

Lynn Sweet is a columnist and the Washington Bureau Chief for the Chicago Sun-Times.

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This page contains a single entry by Lynn Sweet published on March 2, 2010 12:28 PM.

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