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House GOP political operation memo on Illinois House contests

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Below, memo from the National Republican Congressional Committee on Illinois House races......




NRCC ILLINOIS PRIMARY MEMO

TO: INTERESTED PARTIES
FROM: NRCC POLITICAL AND NRCC COMMUNICATIONS
DATE: FEBRUARY 3, 2010
SUBJECT: ILLINOIS PRIMARY RESULTS

The road to putting an end to the Democrats' reckless agenda began tonight in President Obama's own backyard. The results of the Congressional primaries in Illinois prove that Republicans are not only poised to successfully defend all of the GOP-held districts in the Land of Lincoln, but we are prepared to run highly aggressive campaigns in several suburban Chicago districts currently held by vulnerable Democrats. With an unacceptably high unemployment rate, a skyrocketing deficit and an out-of-touch agenda, Democrats are on the defensive, and Republicans are well positioned to pick up seats in November.

Open Seats:

IL-10 (Rep. Mark Kirk, R)

Outgoing Rep. Mark Kirk has consistently beaten back Democratic challengers despite this district's overall Democratic bent, and Robert Dold is in a strong position to repeat Kirk's success on Election Day.

A small business owner, Robert Dold started this race as an outsider, and quickly proved himself as a political force to be reckoned with. As a third-generation native of the Chicago suburbs, Dold brings with him a background in both business and public policy, having served as the investigative counsel for the House Government Reform and Oversight Committee. As the Republican nominee for the suburban Chicago district, Dold is well positioned to carry on the Kirk tradition of being an independent voice for the hardworking families of suburban Chicago. Dold defeated state Rep. Beth Coulson, entrepreneur Dick Green, Arie Friedman and Paul Hamann for the Republican nomination.

Meanwhile, House Democrats have exhibited a pathological inability to close the deal in this district, failing to win the seat in the Democrats' banner years of 2006 and 2008. A two-time loser for this seat, Dan Seals has proven to be more of a paper tiger than a top-tier candidate the Democrats would like to see on the ballot. Even with President Obama on the ticket last year, Seals not only failed to beat Kirk, he underperformed Obama by 13.5% in the district. Without Obama's coattails, and running in a decidedly Republican-friendly year, Seals clearly has his work cut out for him in November. Seals defeated Julie Hamos, the Democratic Party's top choice for the nomination.

With the political environment turning against Democrats, and this district's longstanding support of Republican Congressional candidates, the GOP is in a prime position to defend this seat in November.

History. The 10th Congressional District has been held by a Republican since 1980 despite the fact that President Obama won the district with 61% of the vote in 2008.

Geography. The 10th Congressional District consists of the Chicago suburbs north of the city extending nearly to the Wisconsin border. The district is home to the Great Lakes Naval Training Center, Northbrook, Deerfield, Highland Park, and a long stretch of shoreline on Lake Michigan.

Challengers:

IL-11 (Rep. Debbie Halvorson, D)

Adam Kinzinger's victory symbolizes the passing of the torch to the next generation of Republican leaders. This fall, Kinzinger showed true leadership by holding a dozen town hall meetings on healthcare when incumbent Debbie Halvorson was avoiding her constituents like the plague. Kinzinger, currently a Captain in the Air National Guard, beat David McAloon, Henry Meers Jr., Darrel Miller and Dave White to win the GOP nomination.

The Debbie Halvorson who sits in Congress today is a far cry from the Halvorson who ran as an "independent" in 2008. This election year will be a referendum on Halvorson, who voted for her party's failed stimulus package, the National Energy Tax, and the trillion dollar government takeover of healthcare. Halvorson's voting record clearly alienates her from the district's center-right views.

In contrast's to Kinzinger's distinguished record of public service in the Air Force and Air National Guard, Halvorson's record of public service began as a key lieutenant of former Gov. Rod Blagojevich. Given the contrast between these two, and Halvorson's reliable support for the Democrats' job-killing agenda, Republicans view this seat as a potential pick-up opportunity.

History. President Obama won the 11th Congressional District with 53% of the vote in 2008, but the district was carried by President Bush in 2004 with 54%.

Geography. The 11th Congressional District of Illinois includes the towns of Joliet, Kankakee, LaSalle, Ottawa and Streator, and all or parts of Will, Kankakee, Grundy, LaSalle, Bureau, Woodford and McLean counties. It was represented by Republican Congressman Jerry Weller from 1995 to 2009.

IL-14 (Rep. Bill Foster, D)

As a state Senator, Randy Hultgren has a proven record of fighting against the Democrats' reckless tax and spend agenda - the very same agenda that Bill Foster fights for every single day in Washington. With a background in public policy and a proven track record of creating jobs, Hultgren will bring to the campaign, and then to Washington, the insight that Foster lacks. State Sen. Randy Hultgren defeated attorney Ethan Hastert for the Republican nomination.

Since winning a pair of elections in 2008, Rep. Bill Foster has proven himself to be well outside the mainstream, supporting everything from the failed stimulus package to the trillion dollar government takeover of healthcare. Foster will also find himself on the defensive for breaking a campaign promise by voting to slash Medicare funding.

Given Foster's extreme views on healthcare, his support for the failed stimulus package, and the district's overall center-right leanings, Republicans view this seat as a potential pick up.

History. President Obama carried the 14th District with 55% of the vote and Rep. Bill Foster carried the district with 57.7% in 2008. However, the 14th District was carried by President Bush in 2004 with 56% of the vote.

Geography. The 14th Congressional District of Illinois covers a part of northern Illinois, including the cities of Aurora, Elgin, DeKalb, Dixon, and parts of Henry, Whiteside, Lee, DeKalb, Kane, Kendall and DuPage counties.

Incumbents:

IL-13 (Judy Biggert, R)

In 2008, Rep. Judy Biggert convincingly defeated Democrat Scott Harper, outperforming GOP presidential nominee John McCain by 9.5%. Biggert, a member of the NRCC's Patriot Program, reported having $637,820.81 cash on hand in her pre-primary filing.

2008 candidate Scott Harper will again be on the ballot this year. Harper held Biggert to under 55% last cycle in large part because of Obama's coattails and a political environment working decidedly against Republicans - two factors certainly not in play this year. Harper has just $98,770.07 cash on hand, yet still has under $160,000 in campaign debt from last cycle.

Given her significant cash advantage, the general political environment, and her dedication and service to the people of the 13th District, Judy Biggert is well positioned to win re-election handily.

History. Although President Obama carried the 13th Congressional District with 54% in 2008, this district has been held by a Republican as far back as 1895.

Geography. The 13th Congressional District covers the southwest suburbs of Chicago, including Downers Grove, Westmont and Woodbridge.

Other incumbents:

At present, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is not targeting any other Republican incumbent in Illinois for defeat this November.

Statewide Roundup:

The following are the unofficial results from Tuesday's primary election in Illinois. These results are UNOFFICIAL AND INCOMPLETE until certified by the Illinois State Board of Elections:

DISTRICT/NAME RAW VOTE %__
*Indicates Incumbent

IL-01 (Bobby Rush, D) Democratic Primary
Precincts Reporting 86%
Bobby Rush * 58,074 79% - winner
JoAnne Guillemette 6,913 9%
Fred Smith 4,505 6%
Harold Bailey 3,595 5%


IL-03 (Rep. Dan Lipinski, D) Democratic Primary
Precincts Reporting - 94%
Dan Lipinski * 53,688 78% - winner
Jorge Mujica 15,228 22%


IL-05 (Rep. Mike Quigley, D) GOP Primary
Precincts Reporting - 95%
David Ratowitz 5,383 40% - winner
Rosanna Pulido 4,490 33%
Ashvin Lad 3,739 27%


IL-07 (Rep. Danny Davis, D) Democratic Primary
Precincts Reporting - 91%
Danny Davis* 48,231 67% - winner
Sharon Dixon 9,837 14%
Darlena Williams-Burnett 9,227 13%
Jim Ascot 4,801 7%


IL-08 (Rep. Melissa Bean, D) GOP Primary
Precincts Reporting - 98%
Joe Walsh 14,048 35% - winner
Dirk Beveridge 10,201 25%
Maria Rodriguez 8,242 20%
Christopher Geissler 3,617 9%
John Dawson 3,227 8%
Gregory Jacobs 1,225 3%


IL-10 (Rep. Mark Kirk, R-open) GOP Primary
Precincts Reporting - 99%
Robert Dold 18,018 39% - winner
Elizabeth Coulson 14,211 30%
Dick Green 6,978 15%
Arie Friedman 6,448 14%
Paul Hamann 946 2%


IL-10 (Rep. Mark Kirk, R-open) Democrat Primary
Precincts Reporting - 99%
Daniel Seals 22,267 48% - winner
Julie Hamos 21,605 47%
Elliot Richardson 2,503 5%


IL-11 (Rep. Debbie Halvorson, D) GOP Primary
Precincts Reporting - 99%
Adam Kinzinger 31,281 63% - winner
Dave White 5,200 11%
David McAloon 4,847 10%
Henry Meers 4,517 9%
Darrel Miller 3,667 7%


IL-12 (Rep. Jerry Costello, D) GOP Primary
Precincts Reporting - 94%
Teri Newman 13,981 53%
Theresa Kormos 12,404 47%


IL-14 (Rep. Bill Foster, D) GOP Primary
Reporting - 98%
Randy Hultgren 33,598 55% - winner
Ethan Hastert 27,938 45%


IL-18 (Rep. Aaron Schock, R) Dem Primary
Precincts Reporting - 100%
Deirdre Hirner 13,635 54% - winner
Carl Ray 11,496 46%


IL-19 (Rep. John Shimkus, R) GOP Primary
Precincts Reporting - 94%
John Shimkus (i) 44,447 85% - winner
Michael Firsching 7,606 15%

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Lynn Sweet

Lynn Sweet is a columnist and the Washington Bureau Chief for the Chicago Sun-Times.

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This page contains a single entry by Lynn Sweet published on February 3, 2010 12:12 AM.

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