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Sweet: Plouffe analysis of Obama weekend sweep

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WASHINGTON--Obama campaign manager David Plouffe crunches numbers in a Sunday memo (at the click) and sees bright prospects for Barack Obama after the Illinois senator won all the weekend contests.

TO: Interested Parties

FR: David Plouffe

RE: Upset in Maine Caps Off Weekend Sweep

DA: February 10, 2008

By the numbers:

Projected pledged delegates won in Maine: Obama – 15; Clinton – 9

Obama’s current lead over Clinton: 84 pledged delegates (a total that increased 57 this weekend)

Pledged delegates: Obama – 1030; Clinton – 946 (the increase is reflected by gains in Maine and totals that were revised upward from yesterday’s results – see chart below)

States won: Obama – 20; Clinton – 11

Primaries won: Obama – 9; Clinton – 9 (With New Mexico still in question)

Caucuses won: Obama 11; Clinton – 2

Today, Obama won an upset victory in Maine, a state where internal and external polls had Clinton leading in the days leading up to the caucuses. Obama is projected to win 15 delegates to Clinton’s 9, capping off an Obama sweep of this weekend’s contests.

Barack Obama has won nearly twice as many states as Hillary Clinton. He won a Red State, Purple State, and Blue States this weekend – showing he has broad national appeal and can win in every corner of this country. Obama has now won 20 contests to Clinton’s 11; he’s won a larger share of the popular vote; and he’s projected to more than triple his current pledged delegate lead since Super Tuesday from 27 pledged delegates to 84, a net gain of 57 pledged delegates.

This weekend’s net gain of 57 pledged delegates represents more than the 42 delegate net gain that Clinton won in Massachusetts, New Jersey, Tennessee and Arizona – combined.

While Obama’s victories demonstrate his broad national appeal, he still faces an uphill battle in every upcoming contest because the Clintons are far better known and have a political machine that’s been honed over two decades. But the more voters get to know Obama and his message of change, the more they support him, which bodes well for the upcoming primaries.

Obama’s victories reflect what a recent Time poll confirmed the other day – that he is the candidate best suited to win Independents, play well in Red States, and beat John McCain in November. As the nominee, Obama will also help down-ballot Democrats get elected to Congress across the country, especially in those Red States where Democrats haven’t fared well for decades. So Obama won’t just win an election, he’ll win a new majority for change, so we can finally solve the problems we’ve been talking about for decades.




Share of Vote


Pledged Delegates

State
Date
Pledged Delegates
Obama
Clinton
Edwards
Obama
Clinton
Edwards

Iowa
3-Jan
45
38%
29%
30%
16
15
14

nNew Hampshire
8-Jan
22
37%
39%
17%
9
9
4

Nevada
19-Jan
25
45%
51%
4%
13
12
0

South Carolina
26-Jan
45
55%
27%
18%
25
12
8

Alabama
5-Feb
52
56%
42%
1%
27
25
0

Alaska
13
74%
25%
0%
9
4
0

American Samoa
3
43%
57%
0%
1
2
0

Arizona
56
42%
51%
5%
25
31
0

Arkansas
35
27%
70%
2%
8
27
0

California
370
42%
52%
4%
163
207
0

Colorado
55
67%
32%
1%
37
18
0

Connecticut
48
51%
47%
1%
26
22
0

Delaware
15
53%
42%
1%
9
6
0

Georgia
87
67%
31%
2%
60
27
0

Idaho
18
79%
17%
3%
15
3
0

Illinois
153
65%
33%
2%
101
52
0

Kansas
32
74%
26%
0%
23
9
0

Massachusetts
93
41%
56%
2%
38
55
0

Minnesota
72
67%
32%
0%
48
24
0

Missouri
72
49%
48%
2%
36
36
0

N. Jersey
107
44%
54%
1%
48
59
0

New Mexico1
26
48%
49%
1%
12
13
0

New York
232
40%
57%
1%
95
137
0

N. Dakota
13
61%
37%
1%
8
5
0

Oklahoma
38
31%
55%
10%
14
24
0

Tennessee
68
41%
54%
4%
29
39
0

Utah
23
57%
39%
3%
14
9
0

Louisiana
9-Feb
56
57%
36%
0%
34
22
0

Nebraska
24
68%
32%
0%
16
8
0

Virgin Islands
3
92%
8%
0%
3
0
0

Washington
78
68%
31%
0%
53
25
0

Maine2
10-Feb
24
59%
41%
0%
15
9
0

Total





1030
946
26

NOTES:

1. New Mexico results not complete -- one delegate remains to be allocated based on final state results

2. Maine results reflect 87% reporting


3 Comments

Things are looking very promising. However, am very concerned about Sun-Times exclusive from yesterday where real estate broker who was working with Tony Rezko apparently logged mutliple visits by Obama to Rezko's office west of the Loop (so really cannot say I happened to be Downtown and just stopped in to say hi). If true, this really negates "just one of thousands of contributors" defense.

Again, despite the many fine attributes and capabilities that Barack brings to the table, he really must address the Rezko relationship. Right now the only person who can derail the Obama Express is Barack himself, and he will do so by not being open and candid.

As opposed to the Clintons and Whitewater, Travelgate, Pardongate, etc.? And what's up with NOT releasing tax returns -- just how does a politician's family amass $40M in such a short time? And McCain -- remember the S&L crisis years back? Sure doesn't sound like we have anyone with Midwest Values huh? :-)

Don't worry Obama supporters. Obama could be caught on tape taking a bribe from Rezko and the media will cover for him. To Will Delia, sounds like you don't like anyone questioning your poor precious baby Barack. Maybe you and his supporters should wrap him up in a blanket and feed and burp him every night before bedtime.

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Lynn Sweet

Lynn Sweet is a columnist and the Washington Bureau Chief for the Chicago Sun-Times.

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This page contains a single entry by Lynn Sweet published on February 10, 2008 11:40 PM.

Lynn Sweet's Patti Solis Doyle profile. was the previous entry in this blog.

Sweet: Obama's Monday North Carolina visit to Edwards home follows Clinton's Thursday drop by. UPDATE. Obama cancels meeting. is the next entry in this blog.

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