Sweet: Obama campaign manager David Plouffe memo lowers Super Tuesday expectations.
CHICAGO--Obama campaign manager David Plouffe lowered Super Tuesday expectations on Monday, predicting that Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) will win more states and delegates. But the strategy behind the decision for Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) to spend the past few days travelling to small delegate yield primary and caucus states is to have a higher state win score on Tuesday night.
Plouffe excerpt; full memo at the click....
We fully expect Senator Clinton to earn more delegates on February 5th and also to win more states. If we were to be within 100 delegates on that day and win a number of states, we will have met our threshold for success and will be best positioned to win the nomination in the coming months.
February 4, 2008
To: Interested Parties
From: David Plouffe
RE: Putting Tomorrow into Perspective
Two weeks ago, a Clinton campaign adviser told CBS News that they believed they could “wrap up” the nomination on February 5th. As the “inevitable” national frontrunner, tomorrow should be the day when she sews up the nomination or builds a formidable delegate lead. But because of Obama’s growing momentum across the country, the Clinton campaign is now unlikely to reach their stated goals of wrapping up the nomination tomorrow.
Senator Clinton is certainly the favorite on February 5, given the huge leads she has held in many of these contests throughout the course of the campaign and the political, historical and geographic advantages she enjoys in many of these states.
For example, California, which Clinton led by 25 points in October and 12 points two weeks ago, was once seen as the Clinton campaign’s firewall and where they planned to run up an insurmountable lead in delegates. Former Governor Gray Davis, a Clinton supporter, said on MSNBC last week, “I am pleased to be for Hillary Clinton and I expect her to do very well in Super Tuesday. I expect her to win California by a sizable amount, at least double digits, do well in New York and New Jersey and Connecticut.”
Based on her huge head start, Hillary Clinton should still win California, but is unlikely to achieve her goal of getting a sizeable share of the delegates.
Our path to the nomination never factored in a big day for us on February 5. Rather, we always planned to stay close enough in the delegate count so that we could proceed to individually focus on the states in the next set of contests.
We fully expect Senator Clinton to earn more delegates on February 5th and also to win more states. If we were to be within 100 delegates on that day and win a number of states, we will have met our threshold for success and will be best positioned to win the nomination in the coming months.
A performance that exceeds those benchmarks, while unlikely, would put is in a surprisingly strong position heading into the rest of the February contests.
While the Clinton campaign is furiously trying to spin the expectations game, it is important to look at where they were in some of the key states just a few weeks ago.
ALABAMA
Less Than Two Weeks Before February 5th, Clinton Led Alabama By 15 Points. According to polling done by Rasmussen released on January 25, Clinton led Obama by 15 points, 43% to 28%. [Rasmussen, 1/25/08]
ARIZONA
Less Than Two Weeks Before February 5th, Clinton Led Arizona Obama By 21 Points. According to a poll done for the Arizona Republic that was released on January 23, Clinton led Obama 45% to 24%. [Arizona Republic, 1/23/08]
CONNECTICUT
Hartford Courant: Two Weeks Before February 5th, Clinton Led Connecticut By 14 Points. According to polling done for the Hartford Courant released on January 20, Clinton led Obama by 14 points, 41% to 27%. [Hartford Courant, 1/20/08]
DELAWARE
October 2007 Poll Found Clinton Leading Obama By 24 Points. According to polling done by Farleigh Dickinson that was released on October 10, Clinton led Obama by 24 points, 41% to 17%. [Fairleigh Dickinson, 10/10/07]
GEORGIA
In December 2007, Clinton Led Georgia By 7 Points. According to polling done by Strategic Vision released on December 12, Clinton led Obama by 7 points, 34% to 27%. [Strategic Vision, 1/22/07]
MASSACHUSETTS
Survey USA: Two Weeks Before February 5th, Clinton Led Massachusetts By 37 Points. According to polling done by Survey USA released on January 24, Clinton led Obama by 37 points, 59% to 22%. [Survey USA, 1/24/08]
MINNESOTA
October Poll Found Clinton Leading Obama By 25 Points In Minnesota. According to polling done by Mason Dixon released on October 2, Clinton led Obama 47%-33%. [Star Tribune, 10/2/07]
MISSOURI
Less Than Two Weeks Before February 5th, Clinton Led Missouri By 19 Points. According to polling done by Rasmussen released on January 25, Clinton led Obama by 19 points, 43% to 24%. [Rasmussen, 1/25/08]
NEW YORK
Before February 5th, Clinton Led New York By 28 Points. According to polling done by USA Today and Gallup released on January 28, Clinton led Obama by 28 points, 56% to 28%. [Gallup, 1/28/08]
NEW JERSEY
Less Than Two Weeks Before February 5th, Clinton Led New Jersey By 17 Points. According to polling done by Quinnipiac released on January 22, Clinton led Obama by 17 points, 49% to 32%. [Quinnipiac, 1/23/08]
OKLAHOMA
Three Weeks Before February 5th, Clinton Led Oklahoma By 20 Points. According to polling done by Survey USA released on January 14, Clinton led Obama by 20 points, 45% to 25%. [Survey USA, 1/14/08]
TENNESSEE
Less Than One Week Before February 5th, Clinton Led Tennessee By 33 Points. According to polling done by Insider Advantage in Tennessee on January 30th, Clinton led Obama by 33 points, 59% to 26%. [Insider Advantage, 1/30/08]
Comments
I have been greatly disturbed by the lack of coverage of the rampant voter fraud in our current presidential primaries. Bev Harris, of blackboxvoting.org and HBO's "Hacking Democracy", has been monitoring the republican recount in New Hampshire. She has video taped some jaw dropping scenes of what looks like organized crime control of the election there.
Haven't heard about this? . . . that's the problem.
Google "Sibel Edmonds" who as an FBI translator uncovered high level US State Department officials selling our most sensitive military secrets to the highest bidder. She names names and has now broken the law/gag order that John Ashcroft placed on her. You can read about it in the London Times and the London Guardian. Why not the Suntimes?
Posted by: Edward Rynearson | February 4, 2008 12:36 PM
These expectations are ridiculously low. Obama's leading in California for goodness sake!!
Posted by: Robert Paulson | February 4, 2008 01:32 PM
The battle for the democratic ticket top will be a long one. Let's hope Axelrod doesn't vilify Hilary should she win. So long as both front runners continue embracing Edwards' ethos and stealing (it's great flattery) his platform planks, they'll do well and keep an energized base. This is all good.
I think both camps will be surprised at the strong showing of John Edwards in tomorrow's polling. But the republicans need to be constantly reminded that the Dems will vote for the candidate at the ticket top so long as non-celebrity issues are addressed---clean power and health care for all.
Posted by: Lisa | February 4, 2008 08:15 PM
It is good politics that Sen. Obama's campaign manager desires to downplay expectations about his candidate's chance for increased delegate count on Super Tuesday. I expect that the candidate in sputtering his famous slogans--a slogan a day it seems in answer to statements of fact about Hillary Clinton's proven track record--will wear very thin soon.
This is Hillary's moment to lead and the nation should remember this statement by the real JFK in reflecting upon Sen. Obama's political charm: "The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie, deliberate, contrived and dishonest, but the myth, persistent, persuasive and unrealistic."--John F. Kennedy
Posted by: Neal Bachman | February 5, 2008 03:09 AM
Isn't this a newspaper that is supposed to be objectively reporting the news. How the heck does this paper get behind any candidate like this and promote him on the front page EVERY DAY. I will probably vote for him, but Yikes... it really cuts into the credibility of the paper.
Posted by: Jimmy J | February 5, 2008 09:10 AM
This is to David Plouffe and Obama campaign committee. I hope you fine it useful for his campaign. I wrote this in inspiration from Obama's passion, vision and mission he has displayed.
THE NEXT IDOL
Who will you vote for America? It is up to you who will be the next American President, by voting for the one that will not just hold a title but represent our country. Someone who will put in the elbow grease to turn this falling meteor back to the shouting star it once was. Relight the torch of the Lady Liberty that symbolizes the passion, strength and integrity this nation stands for. How will you decide?
We need a visionary that can rebuild the demolished towers in our homes and project a image of stability, education and devotion. So that society eyes can grow in expectation of hopes for our children's future.
Obama need your vote, but most importantly, America need Obama!
Posted by: Tommie Randle | February 19, 2008 03:50 PM