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Sweet: Obama campaign manager David Plouffe memo lowers Super Tuesday expectations.

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CHICAGO--Obama campaign manager David Plouffe lowered Super Tuesday expectations on Monday, predicting that Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) will win more states and delegates. But the strategy behind the decision for Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) to spend the past few days travelling to small delegate yield primary and caucus states is to have a higher state win score on Tuesday night.

Plouffe excerpt; full memo at the click....
We fully expect Senator Clinton to earn more delegates on February 5th and also to win more states. If we were to be within 100 delegates on that day and win a number of states, we will have met our threshold for success and will be best positioned to win the nomination in the coming months.

February 4, 2008

To: Interested Parties

From: David Plouffe

RE: Putting Tomorrow into Perspective

Two weeks ago, a Clinton campaign adviser told CBS News that they believed they could “wrap up” the nomination on February 5th. As the “inevitable” national frontrunner, tomorrow should be the day when she sews up the nomination or builds a formidable delegate lead. But because of Obama’s growing momentum across the country, the Clinton campaign is now unlikely to reach their stated goals of wrapping up the nomination tomorrow.

Senator Clinton is certainly the favorite on February 5, given the huge leads she has held in many of these contests throughout the course of the campaign and the political, historical and geographic advantages she enjoys in many of these states.

For example, California, which Clinton led by 25 points in October and 12 points two weeks ago, was once seen as the Clinton campaign’s firewall and where they planned to run up an insurmountable lead in delegates. Former Governor Gray Davis, a Clinton supporter, said on MSNBC last week, “I am pleased to be for Hillary Clinton and I expect her to do very well in Super Tuesday. I expect her to win California by a sizable amount, at least double digits, do well in New York and New Jersey and Connecticut.”

Based on her huge head start, Hillary Clinton should still win California, but is unlikely to achieve her goal of getting a sizeable share of the delegates.

Our path to the nomination never factored in a big day for us on February 5. Rather, we always planned to stay close enough in the delegate count so that we could proceed to individually focus on the states in the next set of contests.

We fully expect Senator Clinton to earn more delegates on February 5th and also to win more states. If we were to be within 100 delegates on that day and win a number of states, we will have met our threshold for success and will be best positioned to win the nomination in the coming months.

A performance that exceeds those benchmarks, while unlikely, would put is in a surprisingly strong position heading into the rest of the February contests.

While the Clinton campaign is furiously trying to spin the expectations game, it is important to look at where they were in some of the key states just a few weeks ago.

ALABAMA

Less Than Two Weeks Before February 5th, Clinton Led Alabama By 15 Points. According to polling done by Rasmussen released on January 25, Clinton led Obama by 15 points, 43% to 28%. [Rasmussen, 1/25/08]

ARIZONA

Less Than Two Weeks Before February 5th, Clinton Led Arizona Obama By 21 Points. According to a poll done for the Arizona Republic that was released on January 23, Clinton led Obama 45% to 24%. [Arizona Republic, 1/23/08]

CONNECTICUT

Hartford Courant: Two Weeks Before February 5th, Clinton Led Connecticut By 14 Points. According to polling done for the Hartford Courant released on January 20, Clinton led Obama by 14 points, 41% to 27%. [Hartford Courant, 1/20/08]

DELAWARE

October 2007 Poll Found Clinton Leading Obama By 24 Points. According to polling done by Farleigh Dickinson that was released on October 10, Clinton led Obama by 24 points, 41% to 17%. [Fairleigh Dickinson, 10/10/07]

GEORGIA

In December 2007, Clinton Led Georgia By 7 Points. According to polling done by Strategic Vision released on December 12, Clinton led Obama by 7 points, 34% to 27%. [Strategic Vision, 1/22/07]

MASSACHUSETTS

Survey USA: Two Weeks Before February 5th, Clinton Led Massachusetts By 37 Points. According to polling done by Survey USA released on January 24, Clinton led Obama by 37 points, 59% to 22%. [Survey USA, 1/24/08]

MINNESOTA

October Poll Found Clinton Leading Obama By 25 Points In Minnesota. According to polling done by Mason Dixon released on October 2, Clinton led Obama 47%-33%. [Star Tribune, 10/2/07]

MISSOURI

Less Than Two Weeks Before February 5th, Clinton Led Missouri By 19 Points. According to polling done by Rasmussen released on January 25, Clinton led Obama by 19 points, 43% to 24%. [Rasmussen, 1/25/08]

NEW YORK

Before February 5th, Clinton Led New York By 28 Points. According to polling done by USA Today and Gallup released on January 28, Clinton led Obama by 28 points, 56% to 28%. [Gallup, 1/28/08]

NEW JERSEY

Less Than Two Weeks Before February 5th, Clinton Led New Jersey By 17 Points. According to polling done by Quinnipiac released on January 22, Clinton led Obama by 17 points, 49% to 32%. [Quinnipiac, 1/23/08]

OKLAHOMA

Three Weeks Before February 5th, Clinton Led Oklahoma By 20 Points. According to polling done by Survey USA released on January 14, Clinton led Obama by 20 points, 45% to 25%. [Survey USA, 1/14/08]

TENNESSEE

Less Than One Week Before February 5th, Clinton Led Tennessee By 33 Points. According to polling done by Insider Advantage in Tennessee on January 30th, Clinton led Obama by 33 points, 59% to 26%. [Insider Advantage, 1/30/08]


9 Comments

I have been greatly disturbed by the lack of coverage of the rampant voter fraud in our current presidential primaries. Bev Harris, of blackboxvoting.org and HBO's "Hacking Democracy", has been monitoring the republican recount in New Hampshire. She has video taped some jaw dropping scenes of what looks like organized crime control of the election there.

Haven't heard about this? . . . that's the problem.

Google "Sibel Edmonds" who as an FBI translator uncovered high level US State Department officials selling our most sensitive military secrets to the highest bidder. She names names and has now broken the law/gag order that John Ashcroft placed on her. You can read about it in the London Times and the London Guardian. Why not the Suntimes?

These expectations are ridiculously low. Obama's leading in California for goodness sake!!

The battle for the democratic ticket top will be a long one. Let's hope Axelrod doesn't vilify Hilary should she win. So long as both front runners continue embracing Edwards' ethos and stealing (it's great flattery) his platform planks, they'll do well and keep an energized base. This is all good.
I think both camps will be surprised at the strong showing of John Edwards in tomorrow's polling. But the republicans need to be constantly reminded that the Dems will vote for the candidate at the ticket top so long as non-celebrity issues are addressed---clean power and health care for all.

It is good politics that Sen. Obama's campaign manager desires to downplay expectations about his candidate's chance for increased delegate count on Super Tuesday. I expect that the candidate in sputtering his famous slogans--a slogan a day it seems in answer to statements of fact about Hillary Clinton's proven track record--will wear very thin soon.

This is Hillary's moment to lead and the nation should remember this statement by the real JFK in reflecting upon Sen. Obama's political charm: "The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie, deliberate, contrived and dishonest, but the myth, persistent, persuasive and unrealistic."--John F. Kennedy

Isn't this a newspaper that is supposed to be objectively reporting the news. How the heck does this paper get behind any candidate like this and promote him on the front page EVERY DAY. I will probably vote for him, but Yikes... it really cuts into the credibility of the paper.

This is to David Plouffe and Obama campaign committee. I hope you fine it useful for his campaign. I wrote this in inspiration from Obama's passion, vision and mission he has displayed.

THE NEXT IDOL
Who will you vote for America? It is up to you who will be the next American President, by voting for the one that will not just hold a title but represent our country. Someone who will put in the elbow grease to turn this falling meteor back to the shouting star it once was. Relight the torch of the Lady Liberty that symbolizes the passion, strength and integrity this nation stands for. How will you decide?
We need a visionary that can rebuild the demolished towers in our homes and project a image of stability, education and devotion. So that society eyes can grow in expectation of hopes for our children's future.
Obama need your vote, but most importantly, America need Obama!

please tell Barack not to agree to have Jim Lehrer moderate first debate. Just ask Al Gore. Gore said later that he wished he had not agreed to have Jim moderate the debate with Bush. Jim was very nasty to him and very accomadative to Bush. first debate is critical. lots of people make up their mind after first debate.

David

It's amazing how organized and strategic the Democratic campaign lead by you has been thought-out the country from the top brass right down to local levels
and how you're able to zero into forbidden territories which is breaking down
the barriers and morale of the opposition; one can now see how furry is destroying itself, it surely is astonishing to say the least.
This type of strategic techniques should have been used in the war in Iraq and Afghanistan, the situation would have already been resolved years ago!
God bless,
Julian Sanchez
Santa Fe, NM

December 17, 2008

RE: Solutions for the Housing & Job Crisis by using small businesses can jump start the economy as of Jan. 21, 2009

Dear Shaun Donovan,

I have made several attempts to contact members of congress, the senate and the new administration’s transitional team regarding solutions for the housing and job crisis but to no avail. I write to you with hopes that we can discuss this bold plan that I have created which will require federal assistance. I also write to you with hopes that you will champion this cause so that we may implement this plan in time to prepare for the second wave of foreclosures projected for 2009 – 2010.

I have been in business since September 1981 in the areas of Real Estate, Finance, Taxes and Business Strategy along with possessing a legal background. I consistently deal with the stress and anxiety of the average American to find real, tangible, solutions. I believe that my many years of service as an expert in these areas, can be transformed into an effective initiative to tackle our current housing and employment challenges.

Below, please find an outline of the above mentioned plan as it relates to a national solution that will improve our uncertain economy. I am confident that this plan can be that “single solution or magic bullet” that Chairman Sheila Bair of the FDIC did not believe existed.

This proposal can be developed to take effect as of January 21, 2009 and will produce a comprehensive and effective business model that will:

Stop & Prevent Foreclosure:

Establish eligibility of loan modification within 72 hours after a complete application has been submitted
Establish a safeguard procedure that will prevent the homeowner from re-entering the foreclosure process

Stabilize Property Values:

Retention of homeownership in order to prevent declining sale value
Reduce inventory of foreclosed properties where homeowners are in possession or retain title of ownership

Stimulate New Investments:

Develop Partnership Investments for new businesses or expansion of businesses
Integrate partnership with financial institutions that received a part of the 700 billon dollar bailout or any new stimulus legislation to be enacted
New tax structure to create incentives for high income earners above $250,000 per year. These participants will contribute to the program which will create capital, job creation and business growth, without a tax increase

Solution for the Housing Crisis and Other Areas of our Economy (Continued)

Create Job Growth:

The program will match employers with employees who are enrolled
Current unemployed applicants will enroll into the program to qualify for employment first by the prospective employer who is a member of the partnership structure of this business model
The job placement program projects a minimum employment growth of 100,000 new jobs per month, 30 days after the implementation of this program

Create Educational Opportunities:

Cost associated with an unemployed applicants requiring training for employment opportunities in emerging industries will be paid by this program
Employers who are members shall have the option of receiving tax credits or matching funds if unemployed applicant is hired and requires additional education or training to pursue a career in an emerging industry
Finance, income tax and credit counseling will be required for all who enroll in this program

Create Accountability:

Each applicant and or transaction performed under this business model will be tracked and all information will be retained for accurate reporting, research, analysis and for auditing purposes

Restore Consumer Confidence:

Upon enrolling into this new program, each applicant will be issued an assigned card to be used with all purchases from merchants that are members under this new business model. The applicant will be entitled to a ten to twenty percent discount for each transaction when using the assigned card

This proposal has been developed to serve as a fast-track program to create the business model the government can use for the 21st century economy that will ride on the innovation of the internet. Please contact me as soon as possible.

Respectfully,

Allen Shay

For questions regarding this outline, please contact:

Allen B. Shay 202 S. Lake Ave Suite 260 Pasadena, CA 91101

626-584-0499 (Phone) shayandassociates@hotmail.com (Email)

COPYRIGHT © 2008

Shay & Associates
202 S. Lake Avenue Suite 260
Pasadena, California 91101
(Tel) 626.584.0499
(Fax) 626.584.0703

Make it a Productive Day!

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Lynn Sweet

Lynn Sweet is a columnist and the Washington Bureau Chief for the Chicago Sun-Times.

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About this Entry

This page contains a single entry by Lynn Sweet published on February 4, 2008 12:07 PM.

Sweet column: Maria Shriver, Caroline Kennedy, Oprah Winfrey helping Obama target female, GOP and Independent voters. Stevie Wonder drops by. was the previous entry in this blog.

Sweet: Oprah Winfrey Maria Shriver, Caroline Kennedy, Michelle Obama, Stevie Wonder. Photo gallery. is the next entry in this blog.

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