WASHINGTON--The University of Iowa Hawkeye poll just out top line findings. Obama and Clinton running neck and neck though Clinton is ahead. The race is a tie since the margin of error is plus or minus 5.5 percent.
The challenge for Obama....will his supporters actually caucus for him?
"In the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, meanwhile, a slip in John Edwards' numbers has allowed Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama to tighten their grips on the No. 1 and No. 2 spots, respectively. Among all likely Democratic caucus-goers, Clinton leads with 28.9 percent, followed by Obama with 26.6 percent, Edwards with 20.0 percent, Bill Richardson with 7.2 percent and Joe Biden with 5.3 percent."--from University of Iowa release.
Some questions raised about the methodology at Blumenthal's Pollster.com LINK
But Obama supporters may be less likely to show up at the Jan. 3 caucus.....
Edwards, Clinton supporters more likely than Obama supporters to caucus
"Among Democrats, Edwards and Clinton supporters are significantly more likely than Obama supporters to say they are very likely to attend their caucus. Of Edwards supporters, 62.3 percent say they are "Very Likely" to caucus, as do 60.2 percent of Clinton supporters and 48.1 percent of Obama supporters. In 2004, 46.4 percent of Obama supporters did not caucus, compared to 42 percent of Clinton supporters and only 24.5 percent of Edwards supporters."--from release
"Obama is clearly relying heavily on those who do not caucus regularly," Redlawsk said. "If we only look at caucus-goers who are almost certain to attend, we find that Edwards makes up the gap with Obama and Clinton moves clearly ahead. Women will be the key to a Clinton victory; for Obama, getting people who are less likely to caucus out the door in January will be critical."--from release
"These results are from a random, statewide poll of likely caucus-goers in Iowa conducted Oct. 17 through 24. The Republican sample consists of 285 likely caucus-goers, with a margin of error of +/-5.8 percent. The Democratic likely caucus-goer sample consists of 306 likely caucus-goers, with a margin of error of +/-5.5 percent. Respondents in both samples were asked to name the candidate they would support if the caucus were today."--from release
For related stories and information, visit the UI Election 2008 Web site at http://www.uiowa.edu/election.