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Sweet blog special: Clinton in striking distance of Obama in Illinois. New ARG poll. Giuliani leads GOP pack in Illinois.

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WASHINGTON--White House hopeful Barack Obama does not have a lock on the primary in his home state, according to a new American Research Group Illinois poll. The ARG poll--600 telephone interviews of likely Democratic voters and 509 people who said they were Democrats and 91 who said they were Independents--was taken between July 6-9. That period includes all the upbeat publicity Obama gained in the Illinois press coming in first in the money primary. In Illinois, a voter declares a party preference on primary day. Margin of error plus or minus 4 points.

Overall, It's 37 percent for Obama and 33 percent for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.). In a breakdown, it's 39 percent of Democrats for Obama and 34 percent for Clinton. Among Independents, it is an even split--26 percent each. The gender gap persists in Illinois: Obama leads Clinton 41 percent to 24 percent among men, while Clinton leads Obama 40 percent to 33 percent among women.

ARG polled Illinois in January; in this July edition former Sen. John Edwards (D- N.C.) doubled his support from five to ten percent.

On the GOP side in Illinois, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani leads at 30 percent in Illinois to 21 percent for former Sen. Fred Thompson (R-Tenn.), who is poised to jump in the Republican primary. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) is at 12 percent and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is at 11 percent.

For the poll highlights, click below...

The Illinois ARG polls for 2008 GOP and Democratic candidates declared and possible....check it out at www.arg.com
Illinois

Presidential Primary Preference:

Illinois
Likely Democratic Primary Voters Jan 2007 Jul 2007

Biden 3% 1%
Clark 1% 1%
Clinton 30% 33%
Dodd 2% 1%
Edwards 5% 10%
Gravel - -
Kerry 2% ni
Kucinich 1% 1%
Obama 36% 37%
Richardson 3% 4%
Vilsack 2% ni
Undecided 16% 12%

Preference by party:

Illinois
Likely Democratic Primary Voters Democrats (85%) Independents (15%)

Biden 1% -
Clark 1% 2%
Clinton 34% 26%
Dodd 1% -
Edwards 7% 27%
Gravel - -
Kucinich 1% -
Obama 39% 26%
Richardson 4% 2%
Undecided 12% 17%


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About this Survey -

Survey Sponsor: American Research Group, Inc.

The American Research Group has been conducting surveys of voters since 1985.

Sample Size: 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely Democratic primary voters living in Illinois (509 Democrats and 91 independent voters).

Sample Dates: July 6-9, 2007

Margin of Error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

Question Wording:

If the 2008 Democratic presidential preference primary were being held today between (names rotated) Joe Biden, Wesley Clark, Hillary Clinton, Christopher Dodd, John Edwards, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama, and Bill Richardson, for whom would you vote?

Would you say that you definitely plan to vote in the 2008 Democratic presidential primary, that you might vote in the 2008 Democratic presidential primary, or that you will probably not vote in the 2008 Democratic presidential primary?

Top | ARG home
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July 10, 2007 - Presidential Preferences

Democrats Illinois

Biden 1%
Clark 1%
Clinton 33%
Dodd 1%
Edwards 10%
Gravel -
Kucinich 1%
Obama 37%
Richardson 4%
Undecided 12%

Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton 39% to 34% among Democrats and 41% to 24% among men, while Clinton leads Obama 40% to 33% among women.

For details, click on the R or D for each state in the column on the left under 2008 Presidential Polls.

Republicans Illinois

Brownback 1%
Gilmore -
Giuliani 30%
Gingrich 5%
Hagel 1%
Huckabee 2%
Hunter -
McCain 12%
Pataki -
Paul 1%
Romney 11%
Tancredo 1%
F Thompson 21%
T Thompson 1%
Undecided 14%

Rudy Giuliani leads Fred Thompson 30% to 25% among men. Among women, Giuliani is at 30%, John McCain is at 18%, and Fred Thompson is at 17%.

For details, click on the R or D for each state in the column on the left under 2008 Presidential Polls.

4 Comments

A stastical dead heat in his own state - not good news for the Obama camp. Hillary is about 30 points ahead of Obama in her home state of New York and double digits ahead of him in every other large primary state (NJ, FL, CA, PA, OH) etc.

Looks like he’s going to have to spend a lot of that money just to defend his home territory.

Obama ran too soon – he has a lot of potential but needed more experience. Hillary has the strength and experience to take on the GOP and she’s ready NOW.

Being that George W. Bush did not have any experience or any knowledge when he first ran for President. The chances for Sen. Barack Obama are huge, lookint at 14 to 15 months before the Presidential election.
The only thing that can stop Sen. Obama's efforts is Sen. Hilary Clinton's campaign provided she or her husband does not make a political mistake prior to the Democratic nomination

I find it interesting that Wes Clark is still a part of these polls. More that that, I think it's telling that someone who hasn't even announced an exploratory committee is still polling at even 1%. Would love to see what would happen if he actually decided to run. I'd vote for him. Heck, I'm from Chicago - I'd vote for him early AND often! ;-)

All very interesting, but what happens when Edwards drops out (which he will sooner or later)? Where do his votes/delegates go? I would imagine Obama will get the bulk of these. Anyway, if Hillary gets the nomination the Democrats are sure to lose the general election - and what a pity that would be.

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Lynn Sweet

Lynn Sweet is a columnist and the Washington Bureau Chief for the Chicago Sun-Times.

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This page contains a single entry by Lynn Sweet published on July 10, 2007 9:42 AM.

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