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Morning Rahm: Newsweek poll finds majority of respondents want Democrats to win control of the House this November

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Drill down in the data this morning from this Newsweek poll, which reports news that should cheer Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D-Ill.), the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the House political operation.
Complete questions follow --on Iraq, Censure, Congress--plus demographic breakdowns, sample sizes for registered voter subgroups, trends, historic approval rating for past presidents.

NEWSWEEK POLL: Fifty Percent of Americans Would Like Democrats to
Take Control of Congress

----

President's Approval Rating Remains Low; 65 Percent Disapprove Of Bush's
Handling Of Iraq

----

42 Percent Would Support Congressional Censure

CORRECTION: The Newsweek Poll release earlier today reported: "According to the
Oct. 8-9, 1998, Newsweek Poll, during which time Congress was moving to begin
impeachment procedures against President Bill Clinton, Clinton's approval rating
was 32 percent." It was not Clinton's approval rating. Instead, 32 percent
supported Congress taking action to impeach Clinton. The full correct release is
below.

NEW YORK, March 18 /PRNewswire/ -- A majority of Americans polled would like to
see Democrats take control of Congress in this year's elections, according to
the new Newsweek Poll, while 34 percent would like Congress to remain in
Republican hands. In light of recent events, such as the Dubai ports controversy
and the upcoming third anniversary of the Iraq war, only 36 percent of Americans
approve of the way the president is handling his job -- the lowest score George
W. Bush has received in the Newsweek Poll. Sixty-four percent of Americans are
dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time,
while only 30 percent are satisfied.

A year ago, according to the March 17-18, 2005, Newsweek Poll, 57 percent of
Americans polled approved of the of the way Bush handled terrorism and homeland
security; 35 percent disapproved. Now only 44 percent of Americans polled
approve, while 50 percent disapprove. Sixty-five percent disapprove of Bush's
handling of the situation in Iraq; 29 percent approve. On domestic issues, 58
percent of those polled disapprove of the way he is handling the economy; 36
percent approve. Fifty-eight percent of Americans disapprove of Bush's energy
policy and 62 percent disapprove of his health-care plans. A plurality, 47
percent, approve of Bush's appointments to the Supreme Court -- a 5-point
increase since the last Newsweek Poll and the sole issue in the poll in which
the public believes he is performing well.

Sen. Russ Feingold recently called for Congress to censure -- or formally
reprimand -- Bush for his warrantless wiretapping program. While Feingold's
measure does not enjoy much support among his Senate colleagues, a significant
percentage of those polled like the idea -- 42 percent of Americans say they
would support a congressional censure of Bush while 50 percent would not. When
divided by political party, the majority of Democrats, 60 percent, support
formally reprimanding Bush, while just 20 percent of Republicans would support
doing so. When asked about the reason why Senator Feingold and other Democrats
in Congress are pushing for Bush's censure, 53 percent of those polled believe
that the movement is for partisan political advantage; 33 percent believe it is
the right thing to do.

When asked if Congress should take action to impeach Bush and consider removing
him from office, 26 percent of those polled say that they support such measures.
When broken down by political party, 49 percent of Democrats and 5 percent of
Republicans support impeachment; 48 percent of Democrats and 94 percent of
Republicans are not in favor, although no movement toward impeachment has taken
shape. According to the Oct. 8-9, 1998, Newsweek Poll, during which time
Congress was moving to begin impeachment procedures against President Bill
Clinton, 32 percent of those polled supported Congress taking action.

When asked if they think that Bush should shake up his White House team, or if
it would be better for Bush not to make major changes, 48 percent say it would
be better not to make major changes; 40 percent would like the top advisers to
step down, and 12 percent don't know.

For this Newsweek Poll, Princeton Survey Research Associates International
interviewed 1,020 adults age 18 and older on March 16-17, 2006. The margin of
error is plus or minus 3 percentage points. This poll is part of the March 27
issue of Newsweek, on newsstands Monday, March 20.
Newsweek Poll
Censure
Princeton Survey Research Associates International

Final Topline Results
(3/18/06)

N = 1,020 national adults, 18 and over
Margin of error: plus or minus 3
Interviewing dates: March 16-17, 2006

SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR REGISTERED VOTERS SUBGROUPS:
891 Registered voters (plus or minus 4)

263 Republicans (plus or minus 7)
310 Democrats (plus or minus 6)
294 Independents (plus or minus 7)

SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR KEY SUBGROUPS:

490 Men (plus or minus 5)
530 Women (plus or minus 5)

289 Republicans (plus or minus 7)
346 Democrats (plus or minus 6)
341 Independents (plus or minus 6)

121 18-29 (plus or minus 10)
313 30-49 (plus or minus 6)
309 50-64 (plus or minus 6)
238 65+ (plus or minus 7)

NOTES:


Data is weighted so that sample demographics match Census Current Population
Survey parameters for gender, age, education, race, region, and population
density.

Reported sample sizes are unweighted and should not be used to compute
percentages.

An asterisk (*) indicates a value less than 1%.

1a/b. To begin, suppose the elections for U.S. CONGRESS were being held TODAY
... Would you vote for the Republican Party's candidate or the Democratic
Party's candidate (ROTATE) for Congress in your district? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED,
RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward... the Republican
or the Democrat (ROTATE)?

BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS


Rep/Lean Rep Dem/Lean Dem Undecided/Other
Current Total 39 50 11 =100

Republicans 90 4 6 =100
Democrats 3 94 3 =100
Independents 31 47 22 =100

2005 Trend (RVs)
(11/10-11/05) 36 53 11 =100
(9/29-30/05) 42 47 11 =100
(9/8-9/05) 38 50 12 =100

2002 Trends (RVs)
(10/24-25/02) 46 43 11 =100
(10/10-11/02) 43 43 14 =100
(9/26-27/02) 40 47 13 =100
(9/12-13/02) 43 41 16 =100
(8/28-29/02) 40 45 15 =100
June 2002(1) 44 46 10 =100
February 2002 46 45 9 =100

1998 Trends (RVs)
(10/8-9/98) 43 45 12 =100
(9/24-25/98) 43 48 9 =100
(9/10-11/98) 43 45 12 =100
(8/20-21/98) 41 47 12 =100

(1) June and February 2002 trends from Pew Research Center.


Questions 2 and 3 were asked in random order.


2. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the
United States at this time?

Satisfied Dissatisfied DK
Current Total 30 64 6 =100

Trends(2)
(11/10-11/05) 26 68 6 =100
(9/29-30/05) 31 61 8 =100
(9/8-9/05) Hurricane Katrina 28 66 6 =100
(8/2-4/05) 36 54 10 =100
(12/2-3/04) 46 46 8 =100
(10/27-29/04) 39 56 5 =100
(10/21-22/04) 40 56 4 =100
(10/14-15/04) 40 55 5 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 38 57 5 =100
(9/9-10/04) 39 53 8 =100
(9/2-3/04) 43 49 8 =100
(7/29-30/04) 36 58 6 =100
(7/8-9/04) 40 54 6 =100
(5/13-14/04) Prisoner abuse
scandal 30 62 8 =100
(4/8-9/04) 36 59 5 =100
(1/22-23/04) 43 52 5 =100
(1/8-9/04) 46 47 7 =100
(12/18-19/03) Saddam's capture 46 47 7 =100
(10/9-10/03) 40 54 6 =100
(4/03) Iraq War 50 41 9 =100
(9/02) 41 55 4 =100
(7/02) 46 46 8 =100
(9/01) Terrorist attacks 57 34 9 =100
(6/01) 43 52 5 =100
(3/01) 47 45 8 =100
(1/01) 55 41 4 =100
(6/00) 47 45 8 =100
(3/00) 56 36 8 =100
(8/99) 56 39 5 =100
(9/98) 54 42 4 =100
(1/97) 38 58 4 =100
(3/96) 28 70 2 =100
(6/95) 25 73 2 =100
(8/94) 24 71 5 =100
(6/92) Recession 14 84 2 =100
(3/91) Gulf War Victory 66 31 3 =100
(9/90) 37 58 5 =100
(9/88) 56 40 4 =100
(11/85) 51 46 3 =100
(12/81) Recession 27 67 6 =100
(7/79) Energy/Economic Crisis 12 84 4 =100

(2) Trends from 4/03, 9/02, 6/00-6/01 and 6/95-8/99 from Pew Research
Center, 7/79-6/92 from Gallup


3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as
president?

Approve Disapprove DK
Current Total 36 58 6 =100

Trends(3)
(11/10-11/05) 36 58 6 =100
(9/29-30/05) 40 53 7 =100
(9/8-9/05) 38 55 7 =100
(8/2-4/05) 42 51 7 =100
(3/17-18/05) 45 48 7 =100
(2/3-4/05) 50 42 8 =100
(12/2-3/04) 49 44 7 =100
(10/27-29/04) 46 47 7 =100
(10/21-22/04) 46 47 7 =100
(10/14-15/04) 47 46 7 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 46 48 6 =100
(9/9-10/04) 48 44 8 =100
(9/2-3/04) 52 41 7 =100
(7/29-30/04) 45 49 6 =100
(7/8-9/04) 48 46 6 =100
(5/13-14/04) 42 52 6 =100
(4/8-9/04) 49 45 6 =100
(3/25-26/04) 49 45 6 =100
(3/18-19/04) 48 44 8 =100
(2/19-20/04) 48 44 8 =100
(2/5-6/04) 48 45 7 =100
(1/29-30/04) 49 44 7 =100
(1/22-23/04) 50 44 6 =100
(1/8-9/04) 54 41 5 =100
(12/18-19/03) 54 38 8 =100
(11/6-7/03) 52 40 8 =100
(10/9-10/03) 51 42 7 =100
(8/21-22/03) 53 36 11 =100
(7/10-11/03) 55 37 8 =100
(5/29-30/03) 61 28 11 =100
(5/1-2/03) 65 26 9 =100
(4/10-11/03) 71 23 6 =100
(3/27-28/03) 68 26 6 =100
(3/13-14/03) 53 37 10 =100
(2/6-7/03) 61 31 8 =100
(1/16-17/03) 56 33 11 =100
(11/7-8/02) 60 30 10 =100
(10/11-12/02) 61 29 10 =100
(9/12-13/02) 70 23 7 =100
(8/28-29/02) 61 30 9 =100
(6/27-28/02) 70 19 11 =100
(3/21-22/02) 74 16 10 =100
(1/31-2/1/02) 83 12 5 =100
(12/13-14/01) 81 11 8 =100
(10/11-12/01) 88 8 4 =100
(9/20-21/01) 86 10 4 =100
(9/13-14/01) 82 11 7 =100
(8/25-9/5/01) 51 34 15 =100

(3) Full trendline from 1/04 to present; earlier trends selected. Approval
figures for 8/25-9/5/01 from Pew Research Center.


Lowest Approval Ratings for Past Presidents

President % Approve
Clinton 36 5/26-27/93 Newsweek
G.H.W. Bush 29 7/31-8/2/92 Gallup
Reagan 35 1/28-31/83 Gallup
Carter 28 6/29-7/2/79 Gallup
Ford 37 1/10-13/75 & 3/28-31/75
Gallup
Nixon 23 1/4-7/74 Gallup
Johnson 35 8/7-12/68 Gallup
Kennedy 56 9/12-17/63 Gallup
Eisenhower 48 3/27-4/1/58 Gallup
Truman 22 2/9-14/52 Gallup
Roosevelt 48 8/18-24/39 Gallup

Source: The Roper Center for Public Opinion Research iPoll database.


4. Which of the following outcomes would you most like to see for this year's
Congressional elections? Would you rather see ... (RESPONSE CATEGORIES
ROTATED) the Republicans keep control of Congress or the Democrats win enough
seats to take over Congress?

Total Rep Dem Ind
34 Republicans keep control 86 3 22
50 Democrats take over 6 90 51
16 Don't know 8 7 27
100 100 100 100


5. Next, please tell me whether you approve or disapprove of the way George W.
Bush is handling certain aspects of his job... Do you approve or disapprove of
the way Bush is handling... (INSERT-READ AND RANDOMIZE)?

Approve Disapprove DK
a. The economy

Current Total 36 58 6 =100

Trends(4)
(11/10-11/05) 32 60 8 =100
(9/29-30/05) 35 60 5 =100
(9/8-9/05) 35 60 5 =100
(8/2-4/05) 40 52 8 =100
(3/17-18/05) 42 51 7 =100
(4/8-9/04) 41 55 4 =100
(3/25-26/04) 40 54 6 =100
(2/19-20/04) 41 52 7 =100
(1/8-9/04) 46 48 6 =100
(12/18-19/03) 41 49 9 =100
(12/11-12/03) 45 46 9 =100
(11/6-7/03) 44 48 8 =100
(10/9-10/03) 38 56 6 =100
(9/11-12/03) 41 51 8 =100
(7/24-25/03) 43 48 9 =100
(5/29-30/03) 46 45 9 =100
(4/10-11/03) 44 46 10 =100
(3/27-28/03) 53 40 7 =100
(1/16-17/03) 45 46 9 =100
(10/10-11/02) 50 41 9 =100
(8/28-29/02) 48 45 7 =100

b. The situation in Iraq(5)

Current Total 29 65 6 =100

Trends
(11/10-11/05) 30 65 5 =100
(9/29-30/05) 33 62 5 =100
(9/8-9/05) 36 60 4 =100
(8/2-4/05) 34 61 5 =100
(3/17-18/05) 41 54 5 =100
(4/8-9/04) 44 51 5 =100
(3/25-26/04) 44 50 6 =100
(2/19-20/04) 45 47 8 =100
(1/8-9/04) 50 43 7 =100
(12/18-19/03) 53 39 8 =100
(12/11-12/03) 45 50 5 =100
(11/6-7/03) 42 51 7 =100
(10/9-10/03) 44 49 7 =100
(9/11-12/03) 51 42 7 =100
(7/24-25/03) 58 36 6 =100
(5/29-30/03) 65 29 6 =100
(4/10-11/03) 74 22 4 =100
(3/27-28/03) 70 27 3 =100

c. Terrorism and homeland
security(6)

Current Total 44 50 6 =100

Trends
(11/10-11/05) 45 49 6 =100
(9/29-30/05) 51 44 5 =100
(9/8-9/05) 46 48 6 =100
(8/2-4/05) 51 41 8 =100
(3/17-18/05) 57 35 8 =100
(4/8-9/04) 59 35 6 =100
(3/25-26/04) 57 38 5 =100
(2/19-20/04) 65 28 7 =100
(1/8-9/04) 70 22 8 =100
(12/18-19/03) 67 24 9 =100
(12/11-12/03) 64 28 8 =100
(11/6-7/03) 64 27 9 =100
(10/9-10/03) 66 26 8 =100
(9/11-12/03) 65 27 8 =100
(7/24-25/03) 68 26 6 =100
(5/29-30/03) 72 20 8 =100
(4/10-11/03) 78 17 5 =100
(9/26-27/02) 73 21 6 =100
(8/28-29/02) 72 23 5 =100
(5/16-17/02) 71 23 6 =100
(1/31-2/1/02) 82 14 4 =100

d. Appointments to the
Supreme Court(7)

Current Total 47 36 17 =100

Trends
(11/10-11/05) 42 42 16 =100
(9/29-30/05) 57 28 15 =100
(9/8-9/05) 48 33 19 =100
(8/2-4/05) 47 35 18 =100

e. Energy policy

Current Total 28 58 14 =100

Trends
(9/20-30/05) 28 59 13 =100
(9/8-9/05) 28 60 12 =100
(8/2-4/05) 34 46 20 =100
(3/17-18/05) 35 45 20 =100
(9/11-12/03) 42 35 23 =100
(7/24-25/03) 44 35 21 =100
(5/29-30/03) 42 30 28 =100
(5/1-2/03) 44 32 24 =100
(4/10-11/03) 43 32 25 =100
(9/26-27/03) 48 30 22 =100
(8/28-29/02) 47 33 20 =100
(5/3-5/4/01) 44 39 17 =100
(4/12-13/01) 41 38 21 =100

f. Health care, including Medicare

Current Total 28 62 10 =100

Trends
(3/17-18/05) 34 56 10 =100
(2/19-20/04) 37 50 13 =100
(1/8-9/04) 37 50 13 =100
(12/18-19/03) 37 49 14 =100
(12/11-12/03) 35 52 13 =100
(11/6-7/03) 36 50 14 =100
(10/9-10/03) 34 51 15 =100
(9/25-26/03) 38 47 15 =100
(9/18-19/03) 37 51 12 =100
(9/11-12/03) 38 47 15 =100
(7/24-25/03) 39 45 16 =100
(5/29-30/03) 40 43 17 =100
(5/1-2/03) 39 46 15 =100
(4/10-11/03) 40 45 15 =100
(9/26-27/02) 44 43 13 =100

(4) Full trendline from 1/04 to present for items a through c; earlier
trends selected.
(5) Trend wording from 3/03 and 4/03 read "The War with Iraq."
(6) Trend wording from January 2002 to January 2004 read "Policies to
prevent and minimize terrorism at home."
(7) Trend wording through 5/05 read "Appointments to the Supreme Court and
other federal courts."

6. Some people think it is time for President Bush to ask some of the top people
on his White House staff to step down and bring in new people from the outside
to replace them. Others think it would be better for Bush not to make major
changes in his White House team right now. Which comes closer to your view?

Total Rep Dem Ind
40 Ask top people to step down 18 56 43
48 Better not to make major changes 74 32 44
12 Don't know 8 12 13
100 100 100 100


7. As you may know, Senator Russ Feingold has called for Congress to censure or
formally reprimand President Bush over the issue of his warrantless wiretapping
program. Censure is a way for Congress to express strong disapproval of a
President's actions without going so far as impeachment. Would you support the
CENSURE of President Bush by Congress, or not?

Total Rep Dem Ind
42 Yes, would support 20 60 42
50 No would not 75 30 51
8 Don't know 5 10 7
100 100 100 100


8. Do you think Feingold and other Democrats who support censuring Bush are
doing it more for partisan political advantage, or more because they believe it
is the right thing to do?

Total Rep Dem Ind
53 More for partisan political advantage 79 33 55
33 More because it is right 14 51 31
14 Don't know 7 16 14
100 100 100 100


9. Do you think Congress should take action to IMPEACH President Bush and
consider removing him from office, or not?

Yes No DK
Current Total 26 69 5 =100

Republicans 5 94 1 =100
Democrats 49 48 3 =100
Independents 23 69 8 =100

Trends
(10/8-9/98) Clinton 32 61 7 =100
(6/1-4/74) Nixon 52 35 13 =100

Note: 1998 question wording read "Do you think President Clinton should be
impeached and forced to leave the presidency, or not?" 1974 figures
from Harris survey, question wording read "Do you think President
Nixon should or should not be impeached by Congress and removed from
office?"


D2. Now I have just a few more questions so we can describe the people who took
part in our survey ... Regardless of how you might have voted in recent
elections, in politics TODAY, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat,
or Independent?

28 Republican
34 Democrat
34 Independent
2 No party/Not interested in politics (Vol.)
* Other party (Vol.)
2 Don't know
100


END OF INTERVIEW. THANK RESPONDENT: That completes the interview. Thank you
very much for your cooperation.


Source: Newsweek

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Lynn Sweet is a columnist and the Washington Bureau Chief for the Chicago Sun-Times.

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This page contains a single entry by Lynn Sweet published on March 20, 2006 5:50 AM.

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