Because I'm just really bad at it. I have no idea what these... people will do. I've never won an Oscar pool in my life. I try to enjoy the show, and I like analyzing the results, but I can't pretend to divine the Academy's will in advance. Who knows what they'll do? Well, maybe you do.
The TV broadcast starts in about two hours. So if you want to make your predictions -- or share your thoughts on the show while it's in progress -- please feel free to do so below. I'm going to be on deadline for the Chicago Sun-Times and RogerEbert.com, but I'll check in whenever I can, mostly during commercials, to update comments.
I just want to go on record somewhere as saying that I think Michael Clayton will be the real dark horse that surprises everyone tonight, because 1) the critical/film buff community has almost completely dismissed it, and 2) the Reel Geezers loved it, and as all the morning-after griping every year shows, they're the demographic that mainly makes up the Academy.
OK, I am now prepared to be made a fool of....
Ugh, here they are. I wish I had your luck. Then I wouldn't bother with this nonsense.
http://projectionbooth.blogspot.com/2008/02/oscar-race-2008-final-winner.html
Great Moments from the Regis Philbin red carpet show so far:
Some TV person in a green dress just told Marion Cotillard: "You know, Edith Piaf died..." Then, after a long pause, "... before you were born..."
According to a clip intro, Anton Chigurh is motivated by "money and revenge."
I'm just surprised that person knew who Edith Piaf was. That's more research than these red carpet people ever seem to put into their questions.
http://peet.wordpress.com/2007/02/16/boys-like-peet-are-not-afraid-of-wolves/
I read about it some time ago, and it caught my attention. It's some time later, isn't it? But it got its Oscar today. Bit of a late bloomer.
The tag-line for this adaptation is “Boys like Peter are not afraid of wolves.” Now that I’ve seen Templeton’s film, I know why: Peter is the wolf.
As good as the music for Enchanted is, I'm still pulling for Once. That was beautiful.
My god, he has the guitar from the movie, with the big hole. It's magic.
And Once won! I was bummed that they cut Markéta Irglová off, but they did the right thing and let her speak after the commercial. That was great.
No Ray Scheider in the montage? That was a surprise.
Such a shame about Heath Ledger.
Raymond, I think the memorials covered 2/1/07 to 1/31/08 so Roy Scheider will be included *next* year but they did leave off Brad Renfro.
So the weird hunch I had about Michael Clayton was completely wrong.
And I'm glad, because I loved No Country.
Everyone else who loved the film should thank me because the universe is more concerned with embarrassing me than denying the Coens what they so rightly deserve.
Good night, everybody!
Jim,
I'm sure you're not exactly beating yourself up on your inability to forecast the Oscars, but I'll offer my encouragement, anyway. I'm frankly tired of the way handicapping has substituted for opinion in so much of what constitutes "news". This includes sports and politics as well as movies. Anyway, I think you called the Coens' big wins which just happened...
Mmmm, and There Will Be Blood takes its rightful place alongside undeserving losers like GoodFellas, E.T. and Taxi Driver. Seriously, I hate the idea of being a fanboy, but after five viewings of TWBB I feel confident calling it one of the finest of the decade.
I am happy for No Country, though, which I also liked/borderline loved. Juno grew on me but it had no place in that category whatsoever.
Random thoughts:
Too bad Stewart didn't have time to put together an opening skit, and they just reworked last year's stiff computer generated waxwork intro.
That Best Picture rundown was almost exactly the same as they played for the 70th, but for a few different clip choices, and the '97 through '06 films of course. This time they didn't have the audience's applause mysteriously become at The Sound of Music onward. The posters to the side of the screen just made the picture frame hard to see.
I guess they didn't have time to put together a best actor/actress onstage reunion like they did for the 70th and 75th.
I wish they had kept the idea from last year in having the presenters read from the nominated screenplays.
I know a lot of people groan and make fun of the Chuck Workman montages, but for the 80th anniversary show I was a little surprised how few old clip montages there were (of the actual films and performances, not onstage presentations and acceptances). It could have used a few during the mid-section, even if only more jokes in the vein of "Oscars salute to binoculars".
Dane,
Yeah I was surprised they left off Renfro too, especially after Swank made a plural reference to some of the departed dying too soon with their best work ahead of them.
I was also surprised by how little applause Antonioni got, and Bergman didn't get that much more.
Dan, I suspect the Academy put the word out to be respectful and somewhat subdued from now on during the montage of those who passed away after it, embarrassingly, turned into a "dead people popularity contest," especially the year Reeve, Davis and Brando were shown.
Was I the only one who would have LOVED to see a whole bunch of montages like the ones Jon Stewart joked would have been used to pad the non-WGA approved broadcast? A montage of best binocular scenes? A montage of people waking up from nightmare scenes? I could watch hours of that. How 'bout a montage of Kubrick toilet scenes next year to mark the 10th anniversary of his death?
I was thinking that too Christopher. That's why Stewart's joke about it being a waste of our time fell flat: No, that was one of the more entertaining moments, keep em' coming. Something along the lines of the cowboys montage from the 78th (show us how There Will Be Blood is really a romance). A non-WGA approved broadcast, with one nifty montage after another, along with some better tributes to past winners, and old film clips might have been great. Stewart probably would've liked to have done more of those fake political ads if he'd had more time to prepare.
P.S. I like your idea for the montage of Kubrick toilets.
Re: The memorial. Am I crazy or did they used to kind of arrange the names so that it built more clearly toward the bigger stars at the end? This, of course, involves difficult decisions, but at least avoids the embarassment of having a tech guy few have heard of in between two icons: roar...crickets...roar. If they intentionally separated the big names to avoid the popularity contest Robert speaks of, I would suggest that simply asking for silence might work better.
I don't think so, Bergman was near the end, but he was quickly followed by a sequence of technical people, which is probably what took the wind out of his applause.
I think they allow the audience reaction to be heard on television for two reasons: A. For the people you do know and care about it's gratifying to hear their acknowledgement from a live audience, but unfortunately yes, that does turn it into a popularity contest. And B. It helps lighten the mood for television viewers, although since a commercial break always follows the In Memoriam, that probably isn't necessary. I'd agree with you about silence while the film is played and then applause after it's done.