Chicago Sun-Times
Staff reports on all things politics - from City Hall to Springfield to Washington, D.C.

Richard Roeper predicts a winner for president, and other odd odds

| No Comments | No TrackBacks

President Barack Obama leaves Fort Lauderdale, Fla. after making a campaign appearance, Sunday, Nov. 4, 2012. AP Photo/J Pat Carter)

You can read all of columnist Richard Roeper's column breaking down his prediction on the race for the White House here. But Roeper, the consumate gambler, has been studying the odds and thinks he knows who will be dancing to Hail to the Chief come Wednesday: Barack Obama.

Speaking of odds, this has been the most heavily bet upon U.S. presidential race in history for at least one bookie, according to The Sporting News' The Linesmakers.

"The signs are that up to $16 million U.S. will be riding on the outcome of the U.S. Election," British oddsmaker William Hill spokesman Graham Sharpe said in a release Saturday.

With just days to go before Tuesday's election, Barack Obama was a heavy -400 (1/4) favorite on Saturday. William Hill listed Republican candidate Mitt Romney as a +300 (3/1) underdog.

Meanwhile, here's Roeper's breakdown on how the state's will fall and what the final count will be:

  • Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas: Romney.
  • California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia: Obama.
  • Florida: Romney.
  • Georgia: Romney.
  • Hawaii: Obama.
  • Idaho: Romney.
  • Illinois: Obama.
  • Indiana: Romney.
  • Iowa: Obama.
  • Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana: Romney.
  • Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota: Obama.
  • Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska: Romney.
  • Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York: Obama.
  • North Carolina, North Dakota: Romney.
  • Ohio: Obama (game over).
  • Oklahoma: Romney.
  • Oregon, Pennsylvania (game really over), Rhode Island: Obama.
  • South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah: Romney.
  • Vermont, Virginia, Washington: Obama.
  • West Virginia: Romney.
  • Wisconsin: Obama.
  • Wyoming: Romney.

Final score in the Electoral College: Obama, 303, Romney 235.

Roeper isn't the only one making predictions, of course. The Washington Post has its Outlook 16th Crystal Ball contest. While Roeper seems overly confident in his electoral prediction, he's got nothing on Mad Money man Jim Cramer, who sees Obama pulling a 440-98 landslide.

Interestingly, the only gambler in the group, horseracing columnist William Beyer, has it for Romney with a 285-254 win.

Irish oddsmakers Paddy Power aren't giving much hope for the Romney camp, either. At least in 2012. Now, in 2016 they've got something to talk about. They're is not only already giving odds for the 2016 presidential election - can we please get past this one first? - it sees Romney as a 9/2 favorite.

Paul Ryan comes in second at 8/1 odds. Hillary Clinton, Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush fill out the top five early, very early, contenders.

One wonders if there's anyone foolhardy enough to take those odds for $10,000?

Of course,'s Nate Silver may want in on the action, too. Silver, who has gained increasing fame in the last four years for his predictive modeling on political races - and even more notoriety in the last week for those predictions - is currently laying odds that Obama has something north of a 75 percent chance at re-election.

Silver has come under fire from conservatives who claim he is biased in his predictions. Conservatives like MSNBC's Joe Scarborough, who, well, doesn't agree that Silver's math adds up. As Scarborough said on his Morning Joe show:

"Anybody that thinks that this race is anything but a tossup right now is such an ideologue ... they're jokes."

Silver fired back to defend his models, and to offer a bit of money where his math is:

But enough about good causes. Who do you have winning the White House? And what are your odds?

No TrackBacks

TrackBack URL:

Leave a comment