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Every year, recruiting analyst Tom Lemming and I engage in a friendly debate over the talent level of football players in the Chicago area. Are they overrated? Is this just a down cycle? Will next year's class be as good as 1986? Why aren't local kids getting more exposure? Without spring practice, do they suffer in comparison to other states?
Look at the facts:
* Last year, 48 Illinois products suited up in the NFL, more than any other region of the country outside of Los Angeles. But at the current rate, Chicago will quickly fall behind Miami, Dallas and Houston.
* In 1986, a total of 141 Chicago area products earned full-ride scholarships and 16 were later selected in the NFL draft. Today, fewer than 70 get scholarships.
* In this weekend's NFL draft, one Chicago area product, Northern Illinois' Larry English (Marmion), figures to be picked in the first round. Two others, Purdue's Alex Magee (Oswego) and Western Illinois' Josh Williams (Du Sable), figure to be picked later.
* In 2008, only two Chicago area players, Illinois' Rashard Mendenhall (Niles West) and Notre Dame's Tom Zbikowski (Buffalo Grove), were selected.
* In 2007, only two Chicago area players, Northern Illinois' Garrett Wolfe (Holy Cross) and Notre Dame's Dan Santucci (St. Patrick), were picked.
* In the previous eight years, dating to 1999 when Syracuse' Donovan McNabb (Mount Carmel) was the No. 2 pick overall, the Chicago area had a minimum of four players and a maximum of seven selected. There were seven in 2006, six in 1999 and five in 2005 and 2003.
* English could be a rarity. McNabb and Northwestern's Napoleon Harris (Thornton) were the only first-round selections during that 10-year period. Harris was No 23 in 2002 while his high school teammate, Antwaan Randle El, who played at Indiana, was No. 62 in the second round.
* In that period, Thornton had four selections, Naperville North three, Richards, St. Patrick and Leo two each.
So what's wrong? Has the talent level slipped in the last few years? Is Chicago overrated?
Lemming doesn't buy the theory that the talent level has dropped. Sure, the Catholic League isn't what it used to be but the suburbs have picked up the slack and the Public League has greatly improved. Lemming believes the Chicago area isn't producing as much talent as in the past because fewer college coaches are coming into the area to evaluate the players.
"There has been a huge dropoff in the number of colleges that come to recruit in Chicago over the last 10 years," Lemming said. "In the 1980s, they all came here. But because most of the top prospects commit early, moreso than in the South, the coaches don't come back in the fall. Without spring practice, which is a great advantage for kids in the South, fewer Chicago kids are being evaluated and scouted.
"When a lot of coaches come into an area to evaluate talent, they not only see the blue chippers but they also uncover some hidden gems, sleepers, kids with potential and talent that nobody knows about. As it is now, the coaches only come back in the fall if they are looking at underclassmen, not the senior class."
Lemming predicts the situation will begin to change this fall when Chicago-based National Collegiate Scouting Association opens its doors to college recruiters to watch film on hundreds of Illinois products.
NCSA director Chris Krause and his recruiting coordinators, Randy Taylor and Bob Chmiel, will provide one-stop shopping for coaches to evaluate players in a state-of-the-art setting. Because of new NCAA restrictions that limit the amount of time coaches have to evaluate talent, it will be an opportunity to view many more players in a shorter period of time.
Cell Phone Alerts
YOU SAID THERE ARE 48 PLAYERS FROM ILLINOIS THAT SUITED
UP LAST YEAR ON VARIOUS NFL TEAMS, EACH TEAM HAS A 53 MAN
ROSTER, SO FIVE MORE AND WE HAVE A FULL TEAM!
MAYBE ILLINOIS IS OVERRATED BUT I STILL SAY BEAUTY LIKE
SPORTS IS IN THE EYE OF THE BEHOLDER, SIZE AND SPEED, ARE
THE MAIN FACTORS, IF YOU DON'T HAVE SIZE YOU BETTER HAVE
BIG TIME SPEED, WHAT DO THE SCOUTS WANT IS THE NAME OF
THE GAME, THE CPS IS HOLDING UP THEIR END OF THE BARGAIN,
AND THE SUBURBAN SCHOOLS DO A TREMENDOUS JOB OF TURNING
OUT VERY GOOD ATHLETES, IS IT MONEY, IS IT THE CAMP A
PLAYER ATTENDS THAT MAKES THE DIFFERENCE?
ILLINOIS THE STATE AND ILLINOIS THE UNIVERSITY HAVE A
GREAT RELATIONSHIP, COACH ZOOK ISN'T LEAVING A STONE
UNTURNED, DON'T YOU AGREE TAYLOR AND TOM?
WHY DO YOU GUYS FEEL THE TIDE TURNING FOR PROSPECTS IN
THE FUTURE, WITH KID FOOTBALL ON THE RISE IN THE CITY AND
SUBURBS, AND THE SIZE OF THE PLAYER GROWING EVERY DAY,
MAYBE IT'S TO EARLY TO THROW IN THE TOWEL ABOUT FUTURE
PROSPECTS DWINDLING IN NUMBERS?
GOOD LUCK TO ALL FUTURE NFL PLAYERS GOING IN THE DRAFT!
Chicago is not overrated; we are less prepared to compete at the national level for scholarships. In this day and age kids have more exposure than in the past. They have edgytim and rivals.com, Tom Lemming, ESPNU 150, Under Armour, and more. The numbers of kids receiving full-ride scholarships are directly related to the level of talent in the area, and the level of talent is directly related to the level of competition. If the talent is here the college coaches will come and evaluate the players. Talented players are developed by competing on the field. The state class playoff expansion from six different classes to eight classes has had a direct effect on the level of competition. Simply put, you had to work a lot harder in the past if you wanted to make and go deep into the playoffs. It's not a bad idea to have more kids participate in state competition, but there is a balance between playing at a high level and watering down the sport.
Every kid should have the chance to experience high school playoffs, but the incentive should come from hard work and preparation. The rest of the country is slow to expand their class systems, they know that the level of play would suffer, and as a result the level of talent would drop off. Unfortunately, few kids will get the opportunity to play sports on scholarships at the college level, we need to strike the right balance between providing our kids the opportunity to compete in state events and developing talented kids to compete for national scholarships.
Is it possible that we are missing the boat? I enjoy the draft to see how the Rust Belt does as opposed to the Sun Belt and other areas. How many Illinois players, it really does not matter. Not just you but people are concerned that Illinois football/basketball aren't what they used to be. I am 100% for athletics. But we need to be concerned about far more than sport. With four children, one athletic and two academic scholarships and one in waiting, I have seen it all and lived it too.
Forget the NFL/NBA scenario. Does anyone track student-athletes from freshman year to 40?
Finally, where did your buddy Lemming have English rated leaving high school?
I could go on for hours and paragraphs but I'll end it here.