By Roy & Harv Schmidt
Considering how often the recruitment of Whitney Young's Chris Colvin has gone back and forth, the bottom line is that at this point nobody really knows when he will announce his college decision. It could be on the last day of the Fall signing period or he could opt to wait until the spring. Either way, what we are about to do is break down our thoughts on what we think the recruiting positives and negatives are should Colvin end up holding out until April or later.
Before we go any further, we wish to emphasize that it is not our intent to offer our advice on whether we think Colvin should sign early or in the spring. We don't believe that it is our place to speak on that. In reality only Colvin and his family really know what is best in that regard. What we intend to do instead is offer our analysis of what we believe to be the pros and cons should Colvin bypass the Fall signing period and wind up as a spring signee, particularly from the standpoint of the schools currently recruiting him. So on that note, here goes.
1) Recruiting Comfort Zone
The way things currently stand now, Colvin has mentioned four schools as being in the mix--Iowa State, Marquette, Providence and USC. At least three of them have already turned in most solid 2009 recruiting classes. Marquette currently has commitments from five prospects and has a class that ranks anywhere from top 10-top 15 nationally, depending on which national recruiting analyst's rankings you put the most stock in. USC, meanwhile, has four class of 2009 commitments and their class presently ranks anywhere from top 15-20 nationally. Providence has five 2009 commitments and based on sheer numbers alone their class has to rank somewhere in the top 30-40 nationally. With this being said, all three of these schools can afford to wait on Colvin should they choose to do so. If not, they also have the luxury of being able to move on. Either way, we believe that it is a win-win situation for any of them.
There is no question that by waiting until the spring, Colvin can make even greater strides academically with respect to making sure that he qualifies and is eligible to play as a college freshman. Announcing prior to the end of the Fall signing period, on the other hand, certainly would not offer him that leeway. It is an absolute no-brainer that any school recruiting Colvin wants him to qualify so that he doesn't have to sit as a freshman, as he is simply too talented and has the ability to be an immediate contributor for virtually any of the programs in the running for him.
1) The Numbers Game
Needless to say, it is inevitable that should Colvin choose to wait, more and more schools are likely to try and get involved with recruiting him between now and the spring. In fact, some are already doing so. Washington State is now showing a heavy level of interest in Colvin and we have also recently heard Connecticut mentioned as well. Simply put, the longer Colvin's recruitment goes on the more likely it is for any school that still has a need for a point guard in the 2009 class and feels that they may have a connection to try to jump in. This would certainly have to cause any of the four schools considered to be among the current frontrunners to feel a bit uneasy. It will be interesting to see how things play out in this regard.
Oh yes, the handlers. There are already plenty of them surrounding Colvin, all of whom have nothing but their own selfish interests at heart and want to be able to steer Colvin's recruitment in one direction or the other. It seems that every year in Chicago there is at least one recruitment that fits this description. Again, the longer it continues the more there are that will try to have a say and get a piece of the pie. Any school that has a sincere interest in recruiting Colvin needs to be aware of this situation if they aren't already. As the cliche goes, it is a classic case of how "too many cooks spoil the broth."
There you have it. Right now the only thing that we know with a fair degree of certainty is that if Colvin announces during the Fall signing period he will play it down all the way to the last possible minute on the final day (November 19). After all, such is the Chicago way--to build up the drama surrounding a player's recruitment for all that it is worth. Therefore, we will wait and see whether the week of November 12-19 proves to be a big one for Colvin or whether it becomes a mere afterthought.