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February 25, 2008

Plenty Wrong With Post Season All-Star Game Selection Process

By Roy & Harv Schmidt

The McDonald's All-American Game and the Jordan Brand Classic are the two most prestigious post-season all-star games in the country when it comes to high school basketball. However, we believe that the selection process with respect to choosing the players for each game is severely flawed. With that being said, we thought we would take a few minutes to point out the idiosyncrasies and offer a suggestion for improvement.

First of all, we extend our congratulations to 6'9 Michael Dunigan from Farragut and 6'4 Iman Shumpert from Oak Park. Dunigan and Shumpert were each named to compete in both the McDonald's All-American Game, which will be played in Milwaukee on March 26 and the Jordan Brand Classic, which will take place at Madison Square Garden on April 19. While we are happy for both Dunigan and Shumpert, the problem we have is that we believe there are a handful of other players from the class of 2008 in Illinois who have performed well all season long yet in all likelihood will not get the opportunity to compete on a national stage once the postseason arrives. Homewood-Flossmoor's Kevin Dillard, Decatur Eisenhower's Lewis Jackson, Batavia's Nick Fruendt and Simeon's Stan Simpson are ones who immediately come to mind.

This gets at the #1 thing that is wrong with the selection process in connection with all of these all-star games. It is the fact that the selection committees for most of the top all-star games are comprised of national analysts, many of whom we call "big game" people, meaning that they only watch prospects in marquee environments, such as a prominent AAU event or top holiday tournament or in-season shootout. Knowing that, the question we have is how can they consistently monitor and track the progress of all of these players throughout their high school season? The answer is they can't.

As a result, it means that the entire setup as it relates to choosing players for any national postseason all-star game tends to be elitist in nature. This is immediately noticeable when looking at the overall makeup of this year's McDonald's All-American team. The first thing that sticks out is how the selection process is influenced by the player's recruitment. Once again, the majority of players chosen for the game will be playing their college basketball for schools that either compete in one of the nation's top conferences or are a consistent top 25 program. Of the 24 players selected for the 2008 McDonald's game, 8 will be attending a school in the ACC, 5 will be playing in the Pac Ten, 4 in the Big East, 2 in the Big Ten and one in the SEC and Big 12. Two players remain undecided.

Secondly, getting back to the problem we have with the selection committees being controlled by "big game" people, it means that voting is finalized much to early and without any regard whatsoever to how the player performs during his senior year. Instead, more weight is given to how well a player fares during the spring and summer on the AAU circuit. All it takes is one outstanding performance at a prominent national AAU event in front of numerous college coaches and all of the national gurus. If the player accomplishes that and then signs with a top 25 college program to boot, he is a virtual lock to be a McDonald's All-American.

The perfect case in point is Shumpert. Prior to this past spring, Shumpert was a relative unknown amongst the majority of national recruiting analysts. And then it happened. He "blew up" (a scouting term that we detest) on the AAU circuit, and achieved his coming out party with an outstanding performance at the King James Classic in Akron, OH last April. Then in September Shumpert signed a letter of intent with Georgia Tech and at that point he was in as far as being named to the McDonald's team. Unfortunately, it also meant that nothing that he did during his senior year at Oak Park would matter. Just another example of why we say that a high school basketball player's national reputation is made by how well he performs during the spring and summer.

We use Shumpert as an example because we have watched him on plenty of occassions this season and while he has come on strong in the last month, overall we believe that he has had a less than spectacular senior season. While we are not members of the McDonald's selection committee, we are part of a regional panel that recommends players from our geographical area (Illinois) for the game. With that being said, while we nominated Shumpert as a candidate for the McDonald's game, had we been on the committee we would not have voted for him when it came time to turn in the final ballot.

Let us emphasize that we are not national recruiting analysts and therefore can't comment on whether every player chosen to be a McDonald's All-American is truly deserving. However, being regional analysts, we certainly believe we are qualified to speak on players from the state of Illinois. With that in mind, a player who has performed as well (if not better than) any other player in the state from the 2008 class in Illinois this season is Kevin Dillard. While he may not be the frontrunner, Dillard has a chance to be named the Player Of The Year in the Chicago Area and is also among the leading candidates for the prestigious Mr. Basketball award. Yet the best that he might end up doing when it comes to postseason all-star games is playing in a few local contests. Once again, that tells us that something is wrong with the process and offers yet another indication of how the regular season in high school basketball has been rendered more and more meaningless.

How can this problem possibly be fixed? It probably can't, as most people probably believe that the set-up is fine the way it is. Nevertheless, we are going to offer a suggestion. In our opinion, more regional analysts need to be added to the selection committees, as they see players from a specific geographical region on a much more consistent basis than the national gurus, which is why their vote should weigh just as heavily. That way, more emphasis is likely to be put on regular season performance in addition to how a player fares over the spring and summer.

The difficulty lies in being able to balance the regional votes vs. those of the national analysts. There is probably no simple solution, but it is something that we believe needs to be looked at closely. Unfortunately, it will probably end up going no further than this blog.

February 20, 2008

About Player Rankings

By Roy & Harv Schmidt

It is truly sad that we feel a need to write this blog, because quite frankly it is a waste of our time. Unfortunately, it has become necessary, seeing as though another blogger on this site felt compelled to publicly share our player rankings without our consent. Since those who read his contributions may come away with the wrong impression with respect to why we have certain players unranked, we feel a strong need to offer a few clarifications. With that being said, here goes.

What is especially pathetic is that the situation should have never come to this. The blogger who decided to share and offer some public commentary regarding our rankings did so despite the fact that we specifically told him not to after we sent them to him. Makes us wonder what the incentive was. While we certainly don't own a patent on player rankings as a whole, we do have a patent over any thing that we write and publish, including our player rankings. As any credible journalist should know, that means that NO ONE can copy, print or redistribute any of our material without our consent. That is exactly what was done in this instance.

To make matters worse, the blogger chose to offer his opinion on how basketball scouting/player rankings is a "cottage industry" by comparing some of our rankings to those of one of our chief competitors. It was done in a clear-cut effort to make it look like we don't see as many players and to discredit our rankings as a whole. That is where we feel compelled to step in and offer some all-important clarifications, things that the blogger in question should have already been aware of but instead chose to ignore in order to advance his agenda.

First of all, no one should get fooled into thinking that the competitor who the blogger chose to compare our rankings to sees more players than we do. It is common knowledge amongst most astute basketball fans that the competitor who we are referring to doesn't see at least ninety percent of the players that he writes about. In fact, he would probably report to the world that there is an outstanding midget player in Japan if someone were to call him up and tell him so. Enough said.

As for us, we don't operate that way. We can honestly say that every player we write about, every player we watch, every player we rank we have seen play, in most instances on more than one occassion. That is how you establish credibility in this business. Furthermore, as anyone who knows us should already know, our evaluations are done objectively and without the politics, personal agendas, and ties to various shoe companies and AAU programs. The same cannot be said about the majority of our competition.

Now getting back to the matter at hand. We do not have Rueben Cotto from Alton ranked in our Class of 2008 player rankings from Illinois because we have not seen him play, and we don't rank players who we haven't seen. It is that simple. We are willing to bet that the competitor who supposedly has Cotto ranked as the #24 senior in Illinois hasn't seen him either, but that doesn't stop him from ranking Cotto nevertheless. As for Aziz N'diaye from Lake Forest Academy, he is not a true high school senior and in all likelihood will not be playing D1 college basketball next season, which is why we have chosen not to rank him. Therefore, we would advise everyone to take anyone else's ranking of N'diaye with a grain of salt. As for North Lawndale's Paul Bunch, for some reason he was inadvertently omitted from our rankings of the top players in Illinois from the class of 2010. That is what happens when you don't have proofreaders! There is no question that he ranks among the top ten players in that class.

Finally, we wish to offer some choice comments of our own regarding the art of ranking players. Yes, it is true that it is not an exact science and yes, it is true that anyone out there is capable of offering an opinion on what they think of a player. However, we feel strongly that there is a right way and a wrong way to go about ranking and evaluating players, which is why our skin crawls whenever we hear ignorant people say that anyone can do this.

We are confident in saying that those who subscribe to us know beyond a shadow of a doubt that our scouting service and our reports contain the most thorough and accurate evaluations of Illinois high school basketball players that you will find anywhere, mainly because of the reasons that we have stated above. That is why our service is the most trusted and respected of any in the state. And yes, we do take our rankings seriously because they are part of our job. We would hope that anybody who performs a job takes it seriously and tries to do it to the fullest of their capability.

Hopefully this will be the last time we ever have to write on this subject, as we certainly have better and more productive things to do with our time. Again, this whole thing could have been avoided had the blogger in question communicated with us prior to making our player rankings public knowledge without our consent and jumping to conclusions which were totally unfounded. We can only hope that this is something that he will take into consideration in the future.

February 17, 2008

Underrated Back Courts? Look No Further Than Elgin

By Roy & Harv Schmidt

Knowing that in recent years high school basketball has very much become a guard's game, there is often considerable talk throughout the state as to which high school teams have the most talented back court duos. One team whose back court combination has largely flown under the radar is Elgin High School's 6'2 Armani Williams and 6'1 Jeremy Granger. In this blog we comment on that, as well as some in-state universities that hit the recruiting trail hard this past weekend.

We treked out to Elgin High School this past Friday night to watch the Maroons in action vs. Waubonsie Valley and came away extremely impressed with both Williams and Granger's performances. In Elgin's 73-58 victory, Williams came away with 30 points, including six three-pointers, while Granger finished with 17 points.

Williams is probably right on the fringe in terms of projecting as a D1 prospect. However, we will say this--any low major D1 program that is looking for a pure shooter would be wise to take Williams right now. Williams has unlimited range and is a tremendous spotup shooter from virtually anwhere on the floor. His ball skills still need to get better, but with his ability to knock shots down with consistency, we have no doubt that he can be an effective 2-guard at the next level. At the present time, Williams' primary recruiting interest is coming from small colleges, with Illinois Benedictine and North Central being two schools that were in attendance to watch him on Friday night.

Granger may be one of the better guards in the state from the 2008 class that few people know about. He has tremendous quickness and ball handling ability and can consistently get to the basket and beat his opponent off the dribble. While he appears to be a streaky shooter, at the same time he showed us that he definitely has the range. At this point what Granger needs to work on first and foremost is getting stronger. Both Granger and Elgin head coach Mike Sitter are hoping that a scholarship might ultimately come Granger's way, and from what we saw this past weekend we believe that he may certainly be deserving of one. One D1 assistant coach who definitely agrees is Chad Altadonna of Eastern Illinois University, who was on hand at Elgin to watch Granger vs. Waubonsie.

In recent years history has shown that teams with strong back courts generally do well come state tournament time in Illinois. With that in mind, we are beginning to think that the class 4A sectional at Jacobs High School in Algonquin, IL could shape up to be an extremely competitive one, as in addition to Elgin it could feature Jacobs, who is led by 6'1 point guard and University Of Northern Iowa recruit John Moran, as well as Rockton Hononegah, who is spearheaded by unheralded 6'3 junior guard David Brown, who has received scholarship offers from Northern Illinois, Wright State and Eastern Illinois. Therefore, Elgin is a team that could cause some serious damage once the state tournament rolls around, which wouldn't surprise us at all should it happen.

Meanwhile, DePaul University was hard at work on the recruiting trail over the weekend, as head coach Jerry Wainwright and assistant coach Ramone Williams were both in the gym at the City-Suburban Showdown at Northwestern University's Welsh-Ryan Arena for the purpose of watching 6'5 sophomore Alex Rossi from New Trier High School in Winnetka, IL. Rossi didn't disappoint, as he finished with 16 points, including four 3-point field goals in New Trier's 61-53 loss to East Chicago Central High School in East Chicago, IN. The Blue Demons also recently offered 6'10 junior center Kyle Rowley from Lake Forest Academy in Lake Forest, IL. They are looking for a mixture of players from throughout the state of Illinois as well as other parts of the country and are involved with several top underclass prospects in the classes of 2010 and 2011.

In addition to the DePaul coaching staff, Northwestern assistant Tavaras Hardy once again showed why he is one of the hardest working assistant coaches in the D1 recruiting ranks, as he was also front and center for the purpose of watching Rossi. The Wildcats have already offered Rossi a scholarship.

February 13, 2008

Why Brandon Paul Is #1 In 2009

By Roy & Harv Schmidt

We thought we spelled it out long ago, but apparently there are some who just don't get it when it comes to why we regard Warren's Brandon Paul as the top player in Illinois from the class of 2009. Therefore, what follows is our recap as to the things that we believe separate Paul from the other top prospects in the junior class. But better yet, we feel a strong need to set the record straight as to why the reasoning given by those who question Paul's ability is totally off-base.

Let us begin by saying that we have seen every player who is generally regarded as being among the top ten prospects in the state from the 2009 class at least twice this season with the exception of Eureka's 6'8 Jordan Prosser. That is why we believe that we have just as good (if not better) handle on the class than just about anybody. With that being said, once again here are our thoughts on Paul.

The biggest reason why we tab Paul as the #1 junior in Illinois is because he has a considerably higher degree of versatility than any of the other top guards in the class, including Peoria Central's D.J. Richardson, Sterling's Joe Bertrand and Whitney Young's Chris Colvin. Simply put, Paul is the most well-rounded offensively of any of these players. Not only is Paul an outstanding long-range shooter, but he is also highly athletic, is an outstanding passer and has above-average ballhandling skills which allow him to consistently beat opponents to the basket in one-on-one situations.

Secondly, and a factor that we believe is just as important, is the intangibles that Paul brings to the table. He plays as hard from start to finish as any player in the junior class and never takes a play off. The same cannot be said about either Richardson or Bertrand despite their enormous skill level. Paul's outstanding work ethic is especially noticeable at the defensive end, as he uses his incredibly long wingspan to get into the passing lanes and convert baskets off of turnovers. And the best part part is that he believes there are still things that he can improve on and he works every day on trying to become even better. You have to love a kid who thinks that way.

What is laughable is that the talent evaluator who seems to be Paul's greatest detractor has only seen Paul play on one occassion this season. That was at the WDWS/News-Gazette Shootout at the Assembly Hall in Champaign back in December. Paul struggled in that contest, finishing with 21 points on 8-20 shooting, including 3-10 from 3-point range in a 61-50 loss to New Trier. However, did this evaluator bother to take into account the outstanding defensive effort turned in by New Trier, as they took the ball out of Paul's hands, and the fact that Rick Malnati is simply one of the best coaches in the state? Somehow we don't think so.

Ironically enough, we were also in attendance for what may have been Paul's worst outing of the season, as he wound up with only 5 points on just 2-7 shooting in a 48-40 loss to Simeon in the semifinals of the Pontiac Holiday Tournament. Again, credit must go to Simeon and Robert Smith, who has proven to us that he is the best coach in the Chicago Public League and one of the tops in the state as well. Despite the subpar performances in both the Simeon and New Trier games, we never gave a thought to moving Paul out of the #1 spot. We had seen all that we needed to see when we watched Paul at the Fremd Thanksgiving Tournament earlier in the season, an event in which he was absolutely spectacular. And while we were not in attendance for this one, it is also worth noting that Paul's best performance to date was a 36 point outburst vs. Oak Park and Iman Shumpert, who is generally regarded as the state's #2 prospect in the class of 2008. Moral to the story? You can't base a player ranking or an evaluation on just one game.


What also makes the opinion of the downstate-based talent evaluator who is questioning Paul's game highly absurd is the faulty reasoning behind it when he says that "Paul isn't big enough to be a 2-guard in college." Excuse us? Are you kidding? Nothing could be further from the truth, as Paul has the perfect blend of size, athleticism and length (wingspan) which makes him an ideal shooting guard prospect at the college level. As one of our esteemed colleagues pointed out, both Shannon Brown (Proviso East and Michigan State) and Jerel McNeal (Hillcrest and Marquette) were believed to be undersized shooting guards upon entering college and both ended up or are doing just fine.

The common knock on Paul which makes more sense to us is that he cannot play point guard at the next level, although we aren't buying into that one either. While Paul is more of a natural two, we have seen enough instances which indicate that he has the ballhandling skills and the playmaking skills which would allow him to make the conversion to the point. It is now merely a question of Paul developing the mindset/mentality of a point guard.

The bottom line is that all three guards that University of Illinois head coach Bruce Weber has landed commitments from in the class of 2009 are interchangeable (Paul, Richardson and Bertrand). They can be used in much the same way as the "three-headed monster" attack that propelled Weber and the Illini to the final four in 2005. We aren't saying that they will be as good--we are simply saying that they have similar capabilities. While none of the three may be pure point guards, they are all capable of handling the point and doing an above-adequate job. That is why the argument that Weber still desparately needs to recruit a point guard is hogwash.

In summary, everyone is entitled to an opinion with respect to a player. However, the more one sees that player the stronger the opinion becomes. Paul is the perfect case and point. We hope that everyone who has seen Paul is capable of coming away with their own opinion. But when comparing the opinions of the talent evaluators, we ask that everyone keep in mind the fact that we have seen Paul on numerous occassions as opposed to the detractor who has only seen him once when deciding which opinion carries more weight.

February 05, 2008

Cooley Commits To Notre Dame

By Roy and Harv Schmidt

Rumors had been spreading that 6'9 junior Jack Cooley from Glenbrook South High School in Glenview, IL was going to commit soon, and sure enough, those rumors came to fruition as Cooley gave University of Notre Dame coach Mike Brey a verbal commitment Monday evening. Cooley chose Notre Dame over Wisconsin, Illinois, and Iowa according to his Rising Stars AAU coach Mike Weinstein. Notre Dame, Wisconsin, and Illinois were all schools that had offered Cooley a scholarship.

Cooley and his father wanted to emphasize that there were two factors in the choice of Notre Dame which outweighted all other factors, and this was confirmed by Weinstein. The number one factor was Cooley and his family's admiration for Notre Dame head coach Mike Brey and assistant coach Gene Cross.

Brey's personality, sense of humor, and obvious ability to develop similar players like current Notre Dame star Luke Harangody was noted by all in Cooley's camp. The second big factor was that Brey and Cross were among the first to start recruiting Cooley hard, and did not miss the boat on giving him a timely scholarship offer. Another factor was that Cooley and his father thought that Cooley's game best matched Brey's system. When one considers that Cooley is 6'9 an