Chicago Sun-Times
With Sun-Times sports reporter Herb Gould

These NCAA tournament odds don't add up to me

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A publicist sent me these Odds to Win the NCAA tournament, courtesy of Bodog. Beyond the increasingly rare $2 nassau, I don't bet. But I like numbers, and pondering whether these are good bets.

You hear things about people who bet on a longshot team before a season began. They look good when the team's in the Super Bowl, etc., but these kind of numbers always seem way too low to me.

For example, Ohio State should be 15-2 to make the Final Four, in my world of probability, not 15-2 to win the tournament. Many of those top odds have a similar feel.

For another example, Illinois is 75-1 to win the NCAA tournament. Who's putting money on that? I wouldn't wager 75-1 in Twinkies on Illinois to reach the Final Four. 75-1 would be attractive on Illinois reaching the Sweet 16, but I would advise betting people to keep the mortgage money far away from that proposition.

What would be the right odds for the Illini to even make the NCAA tournament field?

I'm not sure.

As Damon Runyon once said, ``Everything in life is 6-5 against.''


Odds to Win the 2012 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship

North Carolina                7/2

Kentucky                      9/2

Ohio State                     15/2

Duke                             10/1

Connecticut                   12/1

Louisville                       12/1

Syracuse                      12/1

Florida                          20/1

Vanderbilt                      20/1

Memphis                       22/1

Kansas                         25/1

St. John's                      25/1

UCLA                            25/1

Michigan State              28/1

Pittsburgh                     28/1

Texas                           28/1

Baylor                           35/1

Indiana                          35/1

Michigan                       35/1

Arizona                         40/1

Georgetown                   40/1

Gonzaga                       40/1

Notre Dame                   50/1

Villanova                       50/1

Wisconsin                     55/1

Kansas State                60/1

Temple                          60/1

Texas A&M                   60/1

Washington                   60/1

West Virginia                 60/1

Alabama                       65/1

Butler                            65/1

Florida State                  65/1

Boston College              75/1

Cincinnati                      75/1

Illinois                           75/1

Minnesota                     75/1

Mississippi State           75/1

Oregon                          75/1

Xavier                            75/1

Tennessee                    80/1

Arkansas                      100/1

California                       100/1

Marquette                      100/1

Maryland                       100/1

Miami FL                       100/1

Missouri                        100/1

New Mexico                  100/1

North Carolina State       100/1

Oklahoma                     100/1

Oklahoma State             100/1

Purdue                          100/1

St. Mary's                     100/1

UNLV                            100/1

USC                             100/1

Utah State                     100/1

VCU                             100/1

Clemson                       125/1

Colorado                       125/1

Georgia                         125/1

Georgia Tech                 125/1

Richmond                      125/1

Seton Hall                     125/1

Stanford                        125/1

Washington State          125/1

Arizona State                150/1

BYU                             150/1

Iowa                              150/1

Mississippi                    150/1

Old Dominion                 150/1

Penn State                    150/1

San Diego State            150/1

South Carolina               150/1

Virginia Tech                 150/1

Auburn                          200/1

LSU                              200/1

Rutgers                         200/1

South Florida                 200/1

Texas Tech                   200/1

UAB                             200/1

UTEP                            200/1

Virginia                         200/1

Wake Forest                 200/1


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This page contains a single entry by Herb Gould published on November 7, 2011 3:21 PM.

Paterno: `If true, we were all fooled' by Sandusky was the previous entry in this blog.

NCAA chief: Sandusky charges `appalling' is the next entry in this blog.

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