Joe Henricksen and the City/Suburban Hoops Report breaks down Regional Friday and what storylines to follow in regional championship games.

BEST GAME
You can't beat a rivalry game in a regional championship, especially when you're talking two teams that have been red-hot since the holidays. Oak Park and Fenwick will square off in the title game at Oak Park. Fenwick has won 13 of 15 since the holidays, while Oak Park and star Iman Shumpert have won 18 of 19. The two met in December, with Oak Park winning Round I.

UPSET ALERT
There are some scary games for some of the high sectional seeds, starting with top-seeded Batavia in the East Aurora Sectional. The Bulldogs, who were stunned in last year's regional final, will travel to Bartlett to face the host school in the regional championship. Batavia got all it could handle in a last-second win over Benet Academy. Bartlett (20-7), meanwhile, has been playing well the last four weeks. The emergence of junior guard Marc Little has been huge, while 6-5 senior Cory Hrynyk and sophomore Luke Labedzki can score.

Look for No. 6 seed Neuqua Valley to pull off the mild upset and beat higher-seeded West Aurora in the Willowbrook Regional final. The Wildcats are balanced and getting valuable minutes from sophomore Dwayne Evans.

While the Hoops Report is sticking with Farragut in the St. Ignatius Regional final, as long as Mike Flaherty is coaching Mt. Carmel it could get scary for Wolf Nelson's Admirals.

UPSET THAT WON'T HAPPEN
Mundelein, a No. 8 seed, has become a hot choice to make a Cinderella run. After struggling mightily down the stretch, Mundelein knocked off Warren and Brandon Paul in the regional semis and now gets a crack at upsetting conference foe and top-seeded Zion-Benton. Not going to happen. This is a horrible matchup for Mundelein, which plays right into the hands of Zion-Benton with its up-tempo style of attack. There are few teams that can run in transition with Zion-Benton. And Mundelein isn't one of them.

GET ON MY BACK
In a game featuring two individual players that have absolutely carried their respective teams -- Naperville Central's Drew Crawford and Glenbard West's John Shurna -- one will be advancing to a sectional semifinal. Crawford poured in 40 in a win over Geneva on Wednesday night, while the Northwestern-bound Shurna has scored 48 points in two regional wins for the No. 13 seed Hilltoppers.

WORST MATCHUP
OK, this one is on Thursday, but the Marshall-Wheaton Academy game could get ugly -- and quick. Marshall could be putting up triple digits for the second straight regional game. This is a regional championship game?

GUARANTEED CINDERELLA
At the end of the night Friday a 3A Cinderella story will emerge from the Crete-Monee Regional, with either No. 9 seed Crete-Monee (11-15) or No. 20 seed Carver (11-18) advancing to the sectional. Carver stunned a young Brooks team, the No. 3 seed, in the regional semifinal, while Crete-Monee did the same to Crandall Head and Rich South in the other semifinal. The winner will likely get a beatable T.F. North team in the sectional semifinal. The Hoops Report will take Rocky Hill's Crete-Monee club in this one.

BEST REGIONAL STORY
You can't help but pull for a Morton team that is enjoying a magical season. This program earned some respect at the Proviso West Holiday Tournament, won its first conference championship since the 1950s, won 23 games in the regular season and was awarded with ..... a No. 8 seed and road game at Whitney Young. Ouch! Morton didn't fare well against another Chicago Public League power, getting blown out by Marshall, but this is a tremendous story any way you look at it.

CONFERENCES OUT TO PROVE SOMETHING
There are two conferences -- the Upstate Eight and West Suburban Silver -- that are in position to make some headlines. A year ago the Upstate Eight had a remarkable five teams win regional championships, with three reaching sectional title games. This year the conference, which didn't have a team in the latest Hoops Report Top 25, has a legitimate shot at claiming four regional champions. The West Suburban Silver, meanwhile, has Oak Park, Lyons Twp., Glenbard West and York playing for a regional championship Friday night.

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By Joe Henricksen

Class 3A Final Four
Marshall over Washington and Simeon over Decatur Eisenhower
Class 3A Championship
Simeon over Marshall

Here's why
The City/Suburban Hoops Report has made state tournament predictions in each of the publication's 13 years. Never before have the picks been easier to make than this year's Class 3A state predictions. Will all of them hold up? As always, I am sure there will be an upset along the way. But from the aspect of actually having to pick teams, deliberate over matchups and contemplate picking a Cinderella story, there was none of that involved. It's an exclamation point as to how weak and watered down Class 3A is after expanding to four classes.

Another "never before in Hoops Report history" item is this...

In the Hoops Report State Tournament preview issue, in mailboxes of subscribers this week, a total of nine basketball "experts" make their annual picks. This year, for the first time in 13 years, it was near unanimous as to what four teams would be playing in the state semifinals -- in Class 3A, that is. That is unheard of. There are always different opinions and picks, with tough calls to make on certain matchups in regional, sectional and supersectional play. Of the nine "experts" that made picks, eight of them had the exact same Final Four in Class 3A: Simeon, Marshall, Decatur Eisenhower and Washington. The other "expert" had two of the same teams in the Final Four.

Again, another indication of how weak the Class 3A field is.

The Hoops Report will be absolutely shocked if Simeon and Marshall aren't playing in Peoria. They are two of the premier teams in Illinois, regardless of class, and the road to Carver Arena is as soft as either one of those two tradition-rich programs have ever traveled down in their respective program's history. Then there is Decatur Eisenhower, which is unbeaten, owns a win over Simeon and is the No. 1 ranked team in Class 3A. Eisenhower will get a test this Friday night against a 23-win Mt. Zion team. And then have a couple of rivalry-type games that could produce an upset. But again, this team hasn't lost all season and is a big favorite to reach Peoria.

That leaves us with the final pick, Washington. Of the four consensus picks in Class 3A, this is the team most likely to fall by the wayside. Washington is the least talented of the "Big Four" and has the toughest road of any of them, having to play and beat the Peoria-area schools along the way. But as the Hoops Report mentioned in a previous blog, terrific backcourts and money players can take you a long way. And Washington has both in senior Matt Roth and junior Dyricus Simms-Edwards.

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By Joe Henricksen

Yes, Simeon beat Hirsch 100-23, Marshall rolled to a 105-58 win and Farragut won by 50, but after just two nights of state tournament play in Class 3A and 4A a common trend may lead to some big surprises over the next two-plus weeks.

The City/Suburban Hoops Report can't recall the first night of regional semifinal action quite like the one that went down on Tuesday night. There were upsets all around the state, but it's the close calls that may have been even more surprising. If you talk to any coach, the majority -- at least those coaches of higher-seeded teams -- hate that first game of regional play, when the big-time underdog comes in loose, sometimes having warmed up with a play-in game the night before and with nothing to lose.

Homewood-Flossmoor, the No. 1 ranked team in Illinois and picked by the majority of prognosticators to win the Class 4A state title, avoided a monumental upset. Marian Catholic, the No. 16 seed, had a three-point shot at the buzzer to win it but missed. H-F survived with a 55-53 win to advance to the regional title. If that three-pointer falls by Marian Catholic, we could be talking one of the biggest upsets in Illinois high school basketball history. Nonetheless, H-F survived. And if the Vikings are playing in Peoria in a couple of weeks no one is going to be talking too much about the near shocker to Marian.

Batavia, the top-seed in the East Aurora Sectional and another team many project to be playing in Peoria, escaped with a 59-56 win over Benet Academy when Bulldog guard Phil Albrecht nailed a three-pointer with less than two seconds to play.

And Richards, in its quest to win a sectional title and looking to take the next big step in the emergence of its program, nearly fell to Eisenhower, winning 62-60.

It was a bad night for No. 4 seeds. Glenbrook North, Wheaton North and Stevenson, a trio of No. 4 seeds, lost to St. Viator, Glenbard West and Lake Zurich, respectively.

And we still have another night of regional semifinal games on Wednesday.

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By Joe Henricksen

Class 4A Final Four
Farragut over Zion-Benton and Homewood-Flossmoor over Batavia
Class 4A Championship
Homewood-Flossmoor over Farragut

Here's why
The toughest part of making picks in Class 4A is sorting out the deep and rugged Proviso East Sectional, where a team like 18-win Mt. Carmel is the No. 11 seed. And then think about a team like St. Ignatius.

Coach Rich Kehoe's club is 21-5 and the No. 7 seed. To reach Peoria here is a very possible scenario for the Wolfpack to get there, which in reality is impossible. First, beat the best No. 11 seed in the state in 18-win Mt. Carmel and legendary coach Mike Flaherty in the first game of the regional. Then beat Farragut and McDonald's All-American Mike Dunigan in the regional final. In the sectional, if the seeds hold true, Ignatius would face Catholic League champ DeLaSalle, which would come into that game sporting a 24-3 record. Then it would be loaded Whitney Young in the sectional final. With a win over Whitney Young, either New Trier or Evanston would be waiting for them in the supersectional.

While the sectional is loaded from top to bottom, the two premier teams are Farragut and Whitney Young. I chose Farragut, despite its lack of depth and at times some poor decision-making, for three reasons.

First, the Admirals are so big, athletic, strong and physical. Coach Wolf Nelson may have found something with this 1-3-1 zone defense. It's so difficult to attack with 6-9 Mike Dunigan in the middle and big, long, strong athletes on top and on the wings. You just can't get to the basket against it. It will be interesting to see how much man-to-man vs. the 1-3-1 zone Farragut uses -- and when they use it -- in the state tournament. Second, Farragut is a veteran and mature team. Starters Dunigan, Darius Stowers, Isiah Williams and Marvin Thigpen are all seniors. And both Karl Riley and James Deer off the bench are seniors as well. Troynell Adams, a crazy athlete, is the lone junior. Third, Farragut is playing well at the right time. Stowers has come of age in the backcourt, showcasing his power and strength with the ball. And Williams provides just enough perimeter shooting to spread defenses.

Batavia is a veteran group that has the star to fall back on in Nick Fruendt. While the road won't be easy for the Bulldogs, at least there isn't another state power in their way. And it's time for Zion-Benton to take the next step. They have an abundance of talent and are so difficult to stop when they get in transition.

That leaves us with Homewood-Flossmoor, the City/Suburban Hoops Report's No. 1 team and pick as 4A state champ. The Vikings have a very winnable sectional and would travel to Illinois State to face a downstate representative in the supersectional, likely either O'Fallon, Edwardsville or Alton. H-F would be favored in any state semifinal matchup. And then comes Farragut in the state title game.

Coach Jim McLaughlin's team has the size, athletes and toughness to match up against Farragut, with 6-4 Supo Sanni, 6-4 Russell Ellington and 6-6 junior Mike Buchanon being multi-sport stars in basketball and football. Then it comes down to guard play, where H-F has arguably the best in the state right now in point guard Kevin Dillard. The Southern Illinois recruit is averaging 25 points and over 5 assists a game. He's a difference-maker at a position that is all so important in state tournament play.

Look for the City/Suburban Hoops Report 3A picks in coming days.

For a complete state tournament preview and breakdown of each sectional in Class 3A and Class 4A, subscribe to the City/Suburban Hoops Report, now in its 13th year of publication. Call (630)-408-6709 or e-mail hoopsreport@yahoo.com

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By Joe Henricksen

You just hope this isn't the early stages of the young prodigy falling by the wayside or spinning out of control. However, the news that sophomore star Jereme Richmond has been kicked off the Waukegan basketball team isn't the first eye-opening moment that would signify that possibility. Richmond, who is everyone's No. 1 prospect in the talented Class of 2010, with the exception of the City/Suburban Hoops Report which elevated Rich South's Crandall Head to the top spot in January, will in all likelihood be heading to his third high school in three years next fall.

The Hoops Report learned Richmond engaged in a verbal confrontation with Waukegan head coach Ron Ashlaw following the team's game with Loyola Academy on Thursday night. The sad thing is, this is far from the only confrontation Richmond has encountered in his brief high school career. He was suspended early this season for three games due to an altercation with a teammate. He waged verbal wars on the floor with various players throughout the year, including last weekend's high-profile contest at the City-Suburban Showdown against Iman Shumpert and Oak Park. The way Richmond has carried himself on the floor this season has been undesirable and not what you expect of any high school player, regardless of his status.

In the end, I really feel for Ashlaw. Here is a coach that is in his first year of a pretty high-pressure high school coaching job. You would think having one of the state's elite players would make the transition easier. The opposite was true. I don't care if Ashlaw is the best young coach in high school basketball, is above his head and clueless or somewhere in between. No coach should have to go through what Ashlaw has had to go through, especially at the high school level. This is stuff made for the NBA -- player/coach confrontations, that is.

I could only shake my head when reading an article in the Chicago Sun-Times a few weeks ago where, basically, Ashlaw was thrown under the bus by Richmond and his father. When did we start having to hear publicly about how a high school coach is incorrectly using a player? Richmond's father, Bill, was quoted saying Jereme "is playing a little out of position.... I say, Why are you on the baseline 90 percent of the time? And he says, 'Dad, I'm not the coach.'"

Huh?

This is still high school basketball, right? The matter of whether Richmond is being used correctly or not isn't the issue. The issue is the platform and forum used. But to go public, in a major daily newspaper, questioning a high school coach? What happened to the old "Hey, coach, can we have a talk during your lunch period on Monday?"

Sadly, this is our culture today, especially in the world of big-time high school athletics. The actions and behaviors have slowly filtered down from professional sports to college and now to high school. Now you can only hope the Richmond camp gains some balance, because a flurry of questions and possible criticism will surely come his way. How will a young phenom handle that?

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By Joe Henricksen

The Class 1A and 2A state tournament has started, while the big schools get it going next week. And the time has come for fans, media and various prognosticators to start making their picks. Who will have extended state tournament runs? Who will be playing for it all in Peoria?

Every season and every coach in America will tell you defense wins championships. While that is true, there are certainly other qualities and strengths I look for when trying to figure what teams are primed for big-time success when it matters most -- in March. The following are three key elements the City/Suburban Hoops Report tries to find when picking its teams in regional and sectional play.

Consistency
The talented but erratic teams are typically the ones that pull off the regional upset. They are geeked up, capable and dangerous -- for one game. Those teams, however, generally aren't able to put together three or four tournament wins. So take a look at the teams that have played with consistency, especially in the last four or five weeks of the season, and against above-average competition. These are teams that even when they have lost, they've played pretty well.

Solid, veteran guard play
If there is one other ingredient that goes right with defense it's solid guard play. Coaches at all levels will talk about the importance of it. The proof is there in the history of state tournament play. The teams with talented guards with experience are in position to stay in games, handle crucial situations and win tight games -- and big games. These teams are capable of playing different styles and adjusting to the styles they are playing against. And the experience of playing in big games during the regular season and earlier in their career and learning from it pays dividends in March.

The go-to player
There are stars and there are go-to stars. And without pointing any fingers, there are talented players, both past and present, that have not -- or are not -- money players when a team needs them the most. Sure, they will come up big from time to time. But I'm talking about the player that is always there, always dependable. There are stars that can disappear in crunch time. But when a team has one -- a true go-to player -- it helps overcome so many areas of weakness. This is the player that can get his own shot, create and score when his team is going through a tough stretch and is in desperate need of a basket. This is the player that can get to the line in the fourth quarter and knock down big free throws. This is the player that can break the back and instill a little intimidation into an opponent. This is the player that, when a team is having that one bad night on the wrong night, can bail his team out and almost individually win a game when the team struggles. Thus, avoiding the dreaded upset.

There are very few teams that have all three of the aforementioned ingredients. A team that immediately jumps out, though, as having these particular three is Homewood-Flossmoor. It's no wonder the Vikings have lost just one game (a last-second loss to Whitney Young at Proviso West in December) and are one of the favorites to win the Class 4A state title. Kevin Dillard provides two of the ingredients himself -- a veteran guard who has played in big games over the last three years and has been a go-to player all season. Supo Sanni is right there with him as an absolute force on the glass and bringing toughness and athleticism that is tough to match up against at the high school level.

Posted by Joe Henricksen at 07:32 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

By Joe Henricksen

Any subscriber of the City/Suburban Hoops Report publication already i