BY RICKY O'DONNELL
If Baseball Prospectus ever needed to defend the accuracy of its PECOTA projections, they would only need to point to the 2007 White Sox. While fans and players were optimistic heading into the year- and rightfully so coming off a 90-win season following a championship- BP said the Sox would finish 72-90. Of course, they were right on the money.
The new PECOTA projections were just released and they say the Sox will be better....but not by much.
The White Sox are projected to finish 77-85, while the Cubs are picked to win the NL Central and finish 89-73.
I think both win totals could be a bit higher. Using my own precise mathematical formula (which is neither precise or mathematical), I see the Cubbies winning 93 games and White Sox winning either 81 or 95. Nothing in between.
Every time I start to get excited for this Sox season, I remember that their number three starter had an ERA around six last year and had to be shut him down in the middle of the second half so he wouldn't lose 20 games. Contreras doesn't have been to be dominant for the Sox to be successful, but he does have to be dependable. If he repeats last years performance the White Sox will be in trouble in the loaded AL Central.
The Cubs should be pretty happy with PECOTA. They're projected to finishing second in the NL in OBP at .343 and first in slugging percentage at .452. The Cubs should be helped out by a relatively poor division as well. The Pirates are projected to finish 71-91, the Cardinals are only slightly better at 72-90, and the Astros (who I think could be kind of good) are projected at 74-88.
Fist pounds to Another Cubs Blog and Sox Machine for the info.
Roman Modrowski is the online sports editor for the 
