Cubs closer Kevin Gregg reacts after blowing the save in Sunday's 3-2 loss at Florida.
Our distrust of Kevin Gregg is well-documented. Full Court Press first asked the question back in May when he coughed up a 4-0, ninth-inning lead against the Astros. We raised the issue again in June when he blew a save at Detroit, and we ask again after successive meltdowns the last two days in Florida: Can the Cubs ever hope to get to the World Series with Gregg as their closer?
Our stance on the Sox has been less strident. While never hopping aboard their bandwagon, FCP is impressed that the Sox just took three out of four from the mighty Yankees. We also applaud GM Ken Williams for picking up 2007 Cy Young winner Jake Peavy in a trade-deadline deal. If Peavy is back on the mound by the end of this month, as hoped, the Sox have the pitching to overtake Detroit and win the AL Central.
The Cubs are in a dead heat for first in the NL Central with the resurgent Cardinals, who now look like a legitimate playoff team with red-hot Matt Holliday in the cleanup spot. But pitching ultimately will decide the division race, and Ryan Dempster's impressive showing Sunday is a big boost to a starting rotation that -- like the Sox' -- should get a huge late-August boost with the return of a healthy ace (in this case, left-hander Ted Lilly). But what to do about the back end of the bullpen? It's hard to envision Gregg nailing down a decisive playoff game that boosts the Cubs into the Fall Classic, especially after what we saw Sunday.
"It wasn't pretty," manager Lou Piniella told reporters after the stunningly sudden loss. "Two pitches, two home runs. ... What are you going to do?"
Although Gregg inspires zero confidence (he has allowed 10 homers, more than any NL reliever), the Cardinals have been getting unrealistically good closing from Ryan Franklin, who lacks overpowering stuff and could be a September liability. Erratic as the Cubs' bullpen has been, the Cardinals have their own late-inning issues. St. Louis also lacks a decent fifth starter, and the suspicion here is that the Cubs will get their act together and win the division title (with the Cardinals a good bet to beat out the Giants and Rockies for the wild-card berth). Once they're in the playoffs, however, the Cubs will have the daunting task of facing either Cliff Lee and the Phillies or Manny Ramirez and the Dodgers. Look for Gregg to remain unreliable and the Cubs to endure another first-round postseason exit.
As for the Sox, they must contend with a Detroit team that just fortified its rotation by acquiring left-hander Jarrod Washburn from Seattle. Forget the Twins, who have lost ace Kevin Slowey for the season and don't have the pitching depth to hang with their rivals. It will come down to the Sox and Tigers, and their three-game series Sept. 25-27 at the Cell could be decisive. If Williams' gamble pays off and Peavy pitches well down the stretch, look for the Sox to prevail.
So what's your call: Both Cubs and Sox in the playoffs, just one, or neither?
About a week ago I would have said the Cubs probably would make it, while the Sox probably would not.
Then, St. Louis gobbled up Matt Holliday and he's been on a tear hitting .600 before yesterday although Pujols only went 3 for 27. It looks to me like Holliday has returned to his 2007 form and should provide the protection that Albert hasn't known. Yes, Grabow and Gorzelanny were nice pickups for the Cubs as they continue to use the Pittsburgh Pirates like the Iowa Cubs. Nevertheless, I think the Cards made a more significant upgrade. Now, I think it's more of a toss-up.
The Sox have a brutal schedule down the stretch. However, taking three of four from the Yankees looks promising. I'm hoping that Peavy can give us September in fine form. Gordon Beckham is starting to pull away on a bona fide quest for ROY. I think that kid's the real deal and his defense is steadily improving. Carlos Quentin has gone from weakly returning to the DL to looking as "hitterish" as anybody. I agree that the Twins had a significant hit with Slowey and didn't really upgrade to cover that. Detroit's pickup of Washburn in his best season since the Angels' World Championship of 2002 was answered with Peavy, but I worry that their lineup has underachieved and may catch fire. I now see this Central as a toss-up. I agree that series at the end of September could be decisive.
We've got two teams and two toss-ups in my opinion. Neither one will get the Wild Card, so first place is a must in each case. As a Sox fan, I feel significantly better, but it's by no means a certainty primarily due to the brutal schedule.
Stu responds: Gig, you're right about the Sox schedule, I meant to mention how difficult it looks. As for the Cubs, even if St. Louis edges them out for the division title, I think they have a good shot at getting the wild card over San Francisco and Colorado.
Too early to say....but I will say one thing
Kevin Gregg is BRUTAL. He reminds me of a real good batting practice pitcher the way he shows the ball to the batter the entire time of his delivery.
Right now I don't have much confidence in the Cubs bullpen period. It's not just Gregg blowing two consecutive saves, it's also Heilman allowing 50% of inherited runners to score throughout the season, Marmol and Guzman not being able to throw strikes. No lead is safe when you have to rely on those four relievers. IF they get to the post season the starters are going to need to go deep in the game because the only place this bullpen is going to carry them is to the wake of yet another Cubs post season corpse.
CUBS and Sox "should" prevail and go all the way. Cubs are built to take the NL Central. Sox are built to excel in the post-season. Cubs will have the NL wrapped up. St. Louis has Tony and they are built for the post season and if the Cubs run into them in the postseason - its a wrap. Cubs need a new skipper. LOU is not getting the job done. He's got more horses than Hawthorne and he hasn't done squat in the postseason. Tigers made a wonderful aquisition with Washburn, but Kenny countered. The Sox have the Arms, Coaching, Youth, Speed, and lightening up and down that lineup. But more important - they have experience and Ozzie.
They are BOTH going to the playoffs. Both will win the Central. But I like the Sox's chances better because of COACHING and post-season experience.
Both teams can go either way.
They are both inconsistent yet right in the mix so if either team can just put together a couple of 4 or 5 game winning streaks they will be in good shape.
The Sox schedule has been and will be brutal and the blown opportunities in Detroit and Minnesota really hurt.
They still have to play the Angels, Red Sox, Yankees and Twins this month and even the Mariners are playing above .500.
It is not going to be easy and they better take care of business against the A’s, Indians, Royals and Orioles.
You can split with the top teams in the league but you have to beat the bottom feeders.
They are too far out to think about the wild card.
The Cubs face the Phillies, Rockies and Dodgers this month but they do not play another .500 team in August. They can get happy against the Nationals, Reds, Astros and Pirates.
If the Cubs stumble against the Rockies then I would not put a lot of hope in them winning the wild card.
By the way... I cannot wait till that damn Metrodome is a pile of rubble. One more series in that dump and it is all over.
Like it or not, but the Cubs schedule favors them down the stretch so they'll be in the Playoff hunt until the end. Gregg should not be allowed to pitch against his former team again. Even then, I always said he was a terrible pickup for the Cubs last Winter. Marmol blew his multiple chances to supplant himself as the true closer of this team. I say it's time to give Angel Guzman that chance. Guzman had a couple of shaky outings in recent appearances, but overall this season, he's been solid and nowhere near as wild as Marmol with the strike zone. Gregg is just going to continue blowing saves, but the key is the playoffs. Assuming the Cubs squeak in the Playoffs, Gregg will be unreliable in the close games against teams like the Dodgers, Cards or Phillies.
As for the Sox... well, I hate to say it, but Peavy will have to come back quick and strong later this month because he's the key in September just like Kenny said in his interviews this past weekend. The good thing is that Peavy's injury is not arm-related so his pitching arm and shoulder should be nice and rested when he gets back on the mound.
Go CHICAGO!
Stu responds: Edgar, the Cubs have a pretty challenging schedule ahead — four games at Colorado, then three vs. the Phillies, followed later in the month by four games at Los Angeles. In mid-September, they have a make-or-break road trip: three at St. Louis, three at Milwaukee and then four at San Francisco. But, if they can survive that, they can coast to the finish line with a seven-game homestand against Pittsburgh and Arizona.
I like the Cubs for the Wild Card. Then I expect them to lose three straight to the Dodgers again (maybe lose in 4 to keep us all interested). Gregg is not a top tier closer. He can't be building his confidence or the team's in him, when he blows games like the one yesterday. He can't be relied upon to close a big game in the Playoffs. As far as the Sox go, I think the Tigers will hang on to win the Central. Dogers/Yanks in the Series. I won't be watching.
You're right Stu, but the Cubs also have their share of games squeezed in there against the likes of the Nationals, Reds and Astros again which the Cubs seem to have a number on, but I admit, I was looking more down the stretch run of the final 2 or 3 weeks of the season where they get to finish off against somewhat weaker competition. The White Sox appear to have a really tough road, but you know what, other than playing against Minnesota at the Metrodome, they seem to be able to play up against the better teams of the league rather than the weaker teams. Bottom line, both the White Sox and the Cubs have a great chance of at least making the playoffs again, but the White Sox have a much better chance of going farther than the Cubs do. The Cubs bullpen, especially their inability to close games, will always be an issue unless this BJ Ryan somehow miraculously recovers as a full time closer again which is highly unlikely. Too bad they couldn't get George Sherrill just like they couldn't sign Brian Fuentes last Winter.
Stu responds: Edgar, I counted it up and the Cubs have 18 games left with teams currently above the .500 mark; the Cardinals have only 15 such games left. But as noted, the Cubs finish up with a six-game homestand against Pittsburgh and Arizona, while the Cardinals close with a nine-game trip to Houston, Colorado and Cincinnati before finishing at home with three vs. Milwaukee. In the final week, it definitely will be advantage, Cubs.
The Cards will take the Central.
The Sox will take the Central.
Cubs will not make the playoffs due to injuries, which will be a convenient excuse, but the real reason will be because of an ineffective Manager who could not get the team to play well all season.
Players who most likely will spend time on the DL before the end of the season: Ramirez, Harden, Soriano
Players most likely to see their performance tail off: Theriot, Fukudome, Wells, Zambrano.
blah blah blah... where in FCP do you see any Cubs fan whining about injuries? Apparently only Cardinals fans making up the so-called excuses for the Cubs. You know what Seedy, the last time we went at it in the boards, you were talkin it up about your Cardinals as usual and cuttin down on the Cubs with your humorless jokes mainly because your team was sittin pretty with a 6 or 7 game lead in the standings at the time. From there, all I said was just we'll see who ends up at the top of the standings at the end of the season and now look where we're at. The Cubs are only a 1/2 game behind despite the blown saves and these injuries you "conveniently" bring up or gleefully predict, while your Cards team has pretty much laid it all on the line with the Matt Holliday acquisition. Good luck with that. Even if the Cubs come up short this year again, I'll be laughing all Winter long if the Cards choke in the playoffs with that loaded lineup and solid pitching staff.
Stu responds: Edgar, here is why both the Cubs and the Cardinals will make the playoffs (one as the wild card): strength of schedule. The other wild-card contenders (Rockies, Giants, Marlins, Braves) all still have to play a bunch of games against each other and their division leaders (Dodgers and Phillies). Here are the number of games each team has remaining against teams with records currently above .500: Cardinals (15), Cubs (18), Marlins (25), Braves (26), Giants (26), Rockies (29). So look for the Cubs and Cardinals to get fat against weak competition (steady diet of Reds, Pirates, etc.) and make the postseason while the other wild-card contenders knock each other off.
How about Gordan Beckham?
Does he look like the real deal or what?
I thought that the Cubs may have the same kind of future with Jake Fox until I realized that he is 5 years older than Beckham.
It is kind of strange that they are bringing up players that are 27 (Fox), 28 (Fuld & Wells) and 29 (Hoffpauir) years old as rookies.
I can understand pitchers being 26 or so but position players that are pushing 30 and are just now getting to the big leagues?
That is not good and that is why the Cubs should be going all out for a ring this year.
They are not built for the long haul.
If they go the whole "Wait till next year" route they are going to find themselves in the same boat as the 1985 team.
Old and the window slamming shut right before their eyes.
The average age of the Cubs roster is 28.7 while the White Sox is 28.6 and that is including players like Thome, Contreras, Colon and Dye.
Now that the Sox have Peavy Colon is gone and that is an 8 year age difference not to mention the talent difference.
Josh Vitters looks like is could be the Cubs future 3B but the rest of their farm system looks pretty thin.
If they don't win it this year then they have got to think about moving some older players who can get you something in return like Lee. The same goes for the Sox with Dye.
Nice Stu. Thanks for breaking that down for some of us. However, you do know that this is THE CUBS, right? Sometimes this team defies logic and the odds, but that being said, this team was built to win now or short term. It's just that I think Hendry made some bad mistakes last offseason trying to improve the team without really breaking the bank. And I'm not talking about just Milton Bradley and DeRosa, I'm talking about the 2 "Aarons" (Heilman & Miles), Kevin Gregg, lack of lefty bullpen stopper, not addressing the leadoff position (again), unable to land Peavy trade last winter, opening the door for Mike Fontenot at 2B full time, etc. I mean these are just a few examples that I was able to quickly spew off the top of my head quickly without doing any research, but I know there's even more I haven't mentioned. How about letting go of Blanco and then signing Bako, only to go back to forever backup Koyie Hill as the 2nd catcher?... stuff like that. My point, all the small mistakes add up and that's why this team has become such a daily soap opera instead of just running away in the Division and allowing teams like the Cards to have some hope and go for it all by getting players like Matt Holliday.
Phil, the Cubs have never been built for the long haul ever since Hendry was given the green light to break the bank on acquisitions before the Cubs sale and their 100 year anniversary milestone. These days, Hendry doesn't have that luxury to play with flexible payroll money any longer. And I don't exactly know who the their Minor League Director of Player Personnel is, but whoever he is pretty much stinks because it either takes way TOO SLOW for Cubs' first round draft picks over the years to develop or they're just total busts. Outside of Vitters, I haven't heard anything about last year's #1, Andrew Cashner, or the other high round draft picks like Tyler Colvin, Ryan Harvey, Josh Donaldson, Bobby Brownlie, Mark Pawelek, Donnie Veal, Luis Montanez... I mean really, what the heck happened to these one-time big names of the Cubs farm system? Yes, Jake Fox is finally doing well now, but it took him almost 6 or 7 years to develop! This is why I've been saying for a long time now, the Cubs or Sam Zell, whoever, have to just get this freakin team sale finalized already so that the new owner can do an overhaul the roster payroll, the Minor League Development system, remodeling Wrigley Field... the Cubs indeed have a very short window to win it all now because the future looks bleak with guys like Lee and Ramirez getting older and more injury prone, Soriano being Soriano, Fukudome another signing bust with 1 year left on contract... just not good. Look, I'm not trying to be Mr. Pessimist, but I always try to keep it real with my comments.
I agree Edgar.
You have to have some of these players make an impact at least once in a while and the Cubs are not doing that.
It is like they completely stopped talking about future prospects since Hee Seop Choi, Corey Patterson and Mark Prior became failures.
They had better hope that Soto does not join that list.
Here is a great site for tracking minor league players if Stu does not mind.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=cashne001and
I take issue with Edgar's statement that the Cubs were never built for the long haul. As Professor Soriano made clear last year after the Dodgers swept, the Cubs were built for the marathon (the regular season ) and not for the sprint (the playoffs). Have we all forgotten that?
Jeez, Edgar --
Are you going to take your toys now and go play by yourself in a corner?
You give a new definition to being thin skinned. Perhaps we need to come up with a new term... being "Cubby thin skinned." And then we can have one of your ludicrous posts next to it to help illustrate the point.
You take the fun out of poking fun at the Cubs.
The Cubs are entertaining for all the wrong reasons. At the top of the list of reasons are words like futility and ineptitude.
To paraphrase Lee Elia, Wrigley Field IS the biggest daycare center in the U.S. And when the babies who populate the seats every home game hear a "non believer" question their Boys in Blue Pinstripes, they grab their Old Styles (one in each hand, of course) and launch into a disjointed, slurred tirade.
You've got the tirade part down pat, but because you're typing your responses, we miss out on the slurred speech.
Nonetheless, I do give you credit. It must be challenging to type while holding an Old Style in each hand.
That's right Seedy, I take the fun out on Cubs rants because it goes nowhere. I've been down this road already with not only you. Excuse me if I prefer a more realistic discussion about some of our Chicago sports teams instead of the comedy acts from spurned ex-Cubs fans or the loyal Cards fans. And I don't know where you get off picturing me typing the keyboard while drinking that Old Style crap, but you're not even close. And slurred tirade? Against who? I've been basically criticizing my own team lately and you call it slurred tirade? Who's really the one painting the stereotype here? You just did, Seedy. Nope, not challenging at all for me to type up a nice sports-related discussion and backing up most of my comments with cold hard FACTS. The most challenging stuff that I have to deal with in the blogs is putting up with the nonsense rants and the witty but pointless one-liners from posters like you who have nothing better to do than act like the Hitman in Bears blog topics.
I know that Edgar doesn't feel the need for anyone to fight for his cause--he's more than adept to fight his own battles. Nonetheless, I do want to seize the opportunity to commend Edgar for supporting his arguments consistently with more facts than anyone on this blog. Also, I count him as an intelligent Cub fan who does give credit and discredit whenever it's due. Moreover, I fully support his cause to spring JR from Bulls' ownership. There's no blind homerism in Edgar.
Its always good to have someone like Edgar around because he keeps the conversations focussed on the topics and facts. And after we have had a plethora of viewpoints and comments, then its cool to delve into back and forths.
The Sox are off to a good August push. Gordon Beckam, Scotty Pods, MERCY! One guy left for dead. The other guy green as a lime flavored snow cone! The Sox just continue to impress. The pressure is making them into a fine diamond. They are infused with a little of everything, youth and experience. Completely unpredictable. They can beat you with speed, hitting, pitching and especially coaching. They are good on the road and at home. The bigger the task, the more they focus. They are exciting to watch and I trully hope they find the chemistry.
it'll be good for the city for both the Cubs and Sox to make it in....it'll ease the sting of the bear's season....
The Cubs are in a good position to make the playoffs, period. As for my hometown White Stockings, if we can take care of our own business, I really like our chances. Yeah, we blew some games against Minny and Detroit, and I hope they don't come back to haunt us, but the kids are improving daily; Beckham is not only solid, he's CLUTCH; we may be all together healthy at the right time, and we've played well against the best. Playing solid, mistake free ball on the road is the key. If we can grab those road disasters by the neck, it looks very bright.
I said it earlier, and I'll say it again; see EVERYONE in Chicago in October.
I say shelve Contreras for another month (bring up Torres), and let him throw 2 solid games at the end (seems a long rest gives Jose a new short life), leave #18 at the 2 spot, let Kotsay spell the elders as much as possible, ride the hottest pitcher in the ninth, and see ya in the fall.
I picked the LAA to win the AL but I have the strangest feeling we have their number. Boston too. Hey, we've tasted it before and even some of our own experts went in expecting to be fed slop. It only takes a nice little run when you need it. If we get there, we have exactly the mixture for that type of spurt.
Obama, Grand Marshall. I can see it now!
Anthony - A lot of people give me the bizness for being Mr. Positive, but I try and call it like I see it - with a touch of homer in me. I looked at ALL of the Chicago teams and liked what I saw. Edgar is Mr. Spock with his facts, and sharp anesthetic soundness, but I try to be like James Tiberias Kirk. Illiciting all of the possible emotions one can. Never say die, start a fight, go for it all, pull the trigger and win the day.
1. I knew the Cubs were stacked with studs and a seasoned coach. Even though I fault him for the past two post seasons. Hendry probably should not have made any changes. I blame Lou. He made Hendry second guess the team. No reason why they shouldn't be in the NL Series every year. They are locked and loaded and their season record reflects that. There is no team in Chicago more equipped to win it all than the Cubs.
2. The Blackhawks. This has become my favorite franchise in the city. They have clawed back from the grave! Just 3 years ago the words "Black Hawks" would elicit a swearing, laughter and tears. And sad to say, but the song "Ding Dong the wicked witch..." comes to mind. And this franchise has returned to the top in Frank Sinatra like fashion, shattering every preconceived notion and tradition that says "you must wait" to contend for a title. I WISH THEM EVERY SUCCESS and I am going to do my best to learn hockey if it kills me! I hate the logo, but love what's behind it. EVEN that tradition is different from the typical Chicago brand.
3. DAH-BEARZ. The Bears are who Chicagoan are. Payton, Piccolo, Butkus, Ditka, the Shufflin Crew, Soldier Field, the Lake, the colors, the class, the cold. This is the team that personifies us all. The big burley Bears with a heart of gold. That's Chicago. We have always had a better than average defense and now we have the holy grail of football players - A Probowl Quarterback!!! Our Christmas's have just gotten brighter! There is an extra skip in the step of every Bears fan and WE CAN NOT WAIT!!!! With one bold strike Jerry Angelo has given Bears fans - Super Bowl HOPES so high that you would have to use drugs to get higher.
4. I love a rags to riches tale. "It's A Wonderful Life", is still my favorite Christmas movie. There are many themes to this time honored classic, but one that comes to mind is the tale of two brothers and a town. The older brother catches all of the bad breaks and never gets to see the world as he dreamed his whole life. And the younger brother - gets to go to college and make a name for himself and becomes a famous war hero. The Sox are "George Bailey" the old brother who is not famous like his brother the Cubs. And Kenny Williams is Frank Capra - who has done everything in his power to make sure this movie has happy ending. "Buffalo Girl won't you come out tonight"!
5. And that brings me to the Bulls and one of my favorite sports. Bulls pushing the Celtics to 7 games was bigger than they knew. They weren't that far away and blew it by letting Gordon walk. I know all of the arguments for Defense over Offense and a complete player over a one-dimensional guy. This is just my humble opinion, but I saw a different team than the one many people saw, and I saw a different player in Gordon. It remains to be seen what he will be able to do in Detroit, but what I saw in Chicago was an electrifying player that provided HOPE in every game. In a sense he was Devin Hester-like. And he is gone, and so is all of my hope for the Bulls this season. And the sad part about it is that the Bulls regarded him as nothing. I can receive that from fans, but management??? And I am left wondering how they could consider this man one of the worst players on the team while I considered him the second best player hands down. One of us is drastically wrong and for all Bulls fan's sakes I truly hope its me. I see no reason to expect anything from the Bulls this season. I cannot imagine anyone except a greedy player with no hopes of winning a championship to sign with Chicago. And I expect that player to be even worse than Ben Wallace, because he at least knew how to shut up about it. There is no coach and no other rational reason to come to Chicago other than to steal money. We would have to sign Dwayne Wade, Labron James, Kobe Bryant, Dirk Nowitski or a player of that ilk to become serious. If we don't get one of THOSE guys, its a wrap for the next 10 years easy. No playoffs or OUT in the first round.
Same old White Sox.
Look great against the Rays, Yankees and Angels and then struggle against the Indians.
They drive me nuts.
And the Hits just keep comin'...
Kenny Williams continues to show that he's the high stakes poker player, gunslinger, etc. I guess we have to give kudos to JR as he's keeping true to form that he's willing to pay to get by far his favorite team to the Promised Land (as opposed to the Bulls). We took Alexis Rios away from the Toronto Blue Jays for nothing but the expensive contract. It's expensive for two reasons: the economy as is combined with how he's performed this season. Both of these reasons could likely change in the near future.
I think Rios, just 28, has 30/30 ability and can play a quality center field, one of the four up-the-middle positions traditionally necessary for winning teams. He couldn't play center in Canada because Vernon Wells was there. Also, if you look up and down our lineup trying to find a "five-tool player," I think the one guy who comes closest to that description is Alexis Rios. Yes, it presents problems for Ozzie this year, but it's a great move for the future.