Is Kevin Gregg the closer you want on the mound with a playoff win on the line?
When Cubs manager Lou Piniella anointed Kevin Gregg over Carlos Marmol as his closer at the end of spring training, he made a point of saying that this was his decision for now, but it wasn't necessarily etched in stone. Good thing. After what we witnessed Saturday at Wrigley Field, the suspicion here is that before too long, it won't even be etched on paper.
Gregg came on in the ninth inning to try to close out a 4-0 lead over the Houston Astros that would have given rookie Randy Wells his first major-league victory. He allowed back-to-back homers to Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee and singles to Miguel Tejada and Hunter Pence before hitting Geoff Blum. Aaron Heilman relieved Gregg and yielded a game-tying, two-run single. Fortunately for the Cubs, they bounced back to win it 5-4 in the bottom of the ninth.
Yes, Gregg is entitled to an occasional bad outing -- plenty of fine closers have blown leads. Before Saturday, Gregg had been 5-for-5 in save opportunities in May with a 1.35 ERA. He hadn't pitched in a few days. With a four-run cushion, he might not have had the kind of adrenaline flowing that closers -- who are accustomed to one-run leads and no margin for error -- thrive on.
But still: When you have a reliever as nasty as Marmol, does it make sense to have someone else out there trying to close out games? Yes, we've heard the arguments about how Marmol is more valuable in the seventh and eighth innnings, sometimes entering with men on base, getting out of jams and often getting more than just three outs. Marmol worked the eighth Saturday and struck out the side while facing the bottom of the Astros' order.
Marmol makes the Cubs' bullpen special. His stuff is so filthy, it has to be disheartening to the opposing team when he takes the mound. The Astros no doubt were glad to see him out of the game after the eighth. So why give opponents that kind of confidence boost in their final at-bats? Put Marmol out there in the ninth inning and send the other team the message that, "Sorry, game's over -- you had your chances, but you're not getting another one."
Debate the logic of Marmol being more valuable in a setup role all you want. There's nothing more debilitating to a team's state of mind than blowing ninth-inning leads. If making the switch means maybe losing some leads in the seventh or eighth, the psychological damage still won't be as bad.
The bottom line for me is: If the Cubs make a return trip to the postseason this October, actually win a couple of games this time and -- in the fifth and deciding game of their first-round series -- find themselves clinging to a one-run lead in the ninth, I want to see Carlos Marmol on the mound trying to nail it down.
Why wait any longer, Lou? Make the move now so both Marmol and Gregg can get comfortable in their new roles. If you're going to go down with the game on the line in the ninth inning, shouldn't you go down with your best man on the mound?
I said in a blog back in spring training that Marmol was a better choice and deserved the closer role, but that one could not argue with Gregg's spring training numbers compared to Marmol's. I think I mostly agree with you on this one, Stu, but Marmol can have bad outings too. Sometimes he's so wild that he loads the bases before finally getting the side out. Gregg does not have the lights out stuff Marmol has when he's on, but does not walk as many as Marmol. Then again, obviously giving up two or three walks is better than back to back homers. Marmol is certainly a great set-up man. Wouild Gregg be one? Lou seems set on Gregg as the closer for now, but I suspect he's going to keep a close eye on him. unless Gregg gets more consistency, I'd guess he's close to history as a closer.
Yo Stu!
Tell Kevin to give me a holler. I know a way to add 5 mph to his fastball.
Gregg's at his best as a closer. Unfortunately, he's just not among the elites of the game. He's going to blow some... in fact, he may blow more saves than the average fan would like. Remember, he blew 9 saves last season. That's a lot and his career ERA numbers are in the 3.50-4.00 area. He may be the guy to close out games for the rest of the regular season, but come playoff time, I'm pretty sure Marmol will get most of the chances to close out the tight games. This might be one of those "Lou tactics" in trying to keep certain players fresh until near the end of the regular season. If Gregg keeps this trend of blowing saves up, then expect to see the closer-by-committee from Lou while Hendry finds another bullpen ace out there by the trade deadline.