Full Court Press

As big of a Cubs fans as I am, the Cubs don't have any 'young guns'(I know.... Bculz loves Theriot). Maybe we are just tired of knowing what will happen. Gillette has completely ruined the 'young guns' image, so perhaps that's maybe where my discern is coming from. I just don't want to
recall any 'young gun' images in my head. Schick-now that's a clean.........wait why are they the same price as Gillette if they don't do any advertising?? Hmmmm which is the bad company here?

I'm nervous about Soto, Theriot AND Pie. Hopefully 1 of the 3 becomes a star, and the other 2 are adequate to make it all work. Who am I kidding?

No mention of Russell, Egbert, or Porada? Sox farm system has a little more in it than given credit for.

Ricky responds: I tried to limit it to guys who should see significant playing time this year in fear of making the post too long. Poreda is probably two years away (right?), but I guess Russell and Egbert could get called this year for sure.

Ricky this is cool! Great post and excellent evaluations. Sox will be happy if Fields belts out 25hrs and ecstatic if he goes 30+. Danks, Floyd, and Owens (along with new pickups) will be the tale. Don't know much about Quentin do you have any numbers on him?

Theriot's LSU teammate belongs at No. 2 in the lineup behind Theriot. These two guys will make things happen for the sluggers.
I have little faith in Lou's handling of the lineup. Is Soriano, a homerun hitter who strikes out a lot, going to remain in the leadoff spot? Fukudome, a lefty hitter, should bat third. Lee should moved down to No. 5, behind Ramirez, who's not fazed by righthanded pitchers and delivers often in the clutch. Lou's handling of the lineup will determine whether the Cubs win or lose.

Felix Pie: with his defense, I think you can absorb his weak bat regardless of how weak it is. How is this any different than many teams with a defensive specialist at 2B/SS? Bat him eigth and enjoy the defense. If the coaches can get him to contibute offensively, so much the better.

Mad Max's Fukudome in right

Strawberry/Rhubarb in center
don't forget Pagan..."bartender, Jobu needs a re-fill"

Chicklets in Left

No need for Athos and Porthos...we have Aramis

Dance Fever at Short

and we're sportin a healthy Wood..

Cubs look good...and the names of these guys rule

The Ritchie Zisks got nothin on us

The Sox season really rests in the hands of the young players. One of either Floyd or Danks (or both) and one of either Owens or Quenton (or both) are going to have to have really good years for the Sox to contend w/Cleveland & Detroit. We know the core is solid. One of the biggest reasons the Sox didn't go to the playoffs in '06, IMO, was Anderson not living up to his potential in CF. If we had a legit offensive player there, you could've added a handful of victories and likely playoff inclusion. A lot of people are counting the Sox out of it b/f the season even starts...I think it's a mistake, b/c all 4 of these players have a decent upside.

Sox must find a way, to keep Crede and Fields in the lineup. Cabrera ss-Ramirez 2b-Dye rf-Konerko 1b-Thome DH-Fields Lf-Pierzynski-c-Crede 3b-Quentin cf.

o.k. roman lets talk northside baseball. this collection of young guns that have been assembled on the north side is an impressive bunch. lou transformed carlos marmol from a lackluster starting pitcher to a bonafide sensation out of the pen last year and a potential superstar closer, maybe as early as this year if he does'nt stumble out of spring training this march.this is one spot on this team that needs to be stabilized, and cross your fingers carlos may fill this niche. a couple seasons ago in the dusty era theriot came along and looked promising.at the time i remember saying this kid deserves a chance. well lou gave him a real shot at claiming the job and did theriot ever show up at wrigley field everyday and put a stranglehold on his place in the everyday lineup.this kid is a sparkplug type of guy. when he is on base good things happen, this team of vets really responds to his style of play. if we are to truely contend for a world championship this guy is maybe the most important part of that happening. soto put together a remarkable season last year both in the minors and the majors.the only hope i have for him this season is that he can be a consistant player. anything close to what he did last year..... i can only dream of seeing something like that, would be truely wonderful. i have not given up on pie and i hope you have not either. lets not forget we have a world class manager who knows how to squeeze, poke, prod, maximum effort from his guys, i expect the best effort he can muster and after this season we will know if he will ever be anything close to what has been projected. oh yeah and rich hill may have the most nasty curve in the majors.... dare i say breakout season for this guy..... this year it feels great to bleed cubbie blue... the one thing missing sadly though is the white sox best aquisition this offseason...STEVE STONE

I really hope they give Pie a chance this year, and dont pick up a backup to take PT away from him...he just needs some time to find his stroke and hes gonna be a stud for years.

Jim Martin...what about Swisher? We didn't give up 3 of our top prospects for him to sit on the bench. Crede is as good as gone.

Swisher/Quentin-LF
Swisher/Owens-CF
Dye-RF
Konerko-1B
Richar-2B
Cabrera-SS
Fields-3B
AJ-C
Thome-DH

Bench: Quentin/Owens, Ramirez, Uribe, Hall, Ozuna

To me, our biggest issue is SP. I like the rest of our roster. Maybe we can get a decent 3-4 type pitcher for Crede??? Would anyone give that up for Crede???

The Cubs needs to let some of their young prospects actually develop. They've had this problem for years. How many times have we heard "This guy's their start for the next 10 years" only to see him playing somewhere else or never turning into anything. Pie needs ABs -- especially against lefties -- or he's never going to improve. I have faith in Soto, and Theriot gets the job done at short -- and as a leadoff hitter.

As for the lineup, Soriano should under *no* circumstances be leading off. Period. *Way too many strikeouts*, and his RBI are wasted. The Cubs' lineup is too righthanded, but they're just going to have to live with that this season. That said, they should have no problem scoring runs.

I'm more concerned about the starting pitching, which looks weak. Zambrano isn't a true ace; Lilly had a good season in the NL at least in part because nobody had faced him before. After that, who do we have? Hill? Coin toss every start. Lieber at age 87?

A couple disagreements/errors

Danks - what you said is fine.

Fields - Yes, defense would be nice, but Fields has a way bigger problem that needs to be addressed. His large strikeout total means he puts the ball in play too little to get lucky enough to get a high hit total. As such, Fields does not get on base very much. 30 home runs are probably expected of him after last season, but he can't OBP .309 again. Fields walks a good amount, so the batting average is the source of the problem, and the source of the batting average is: too many swings and misses that could have instead been bloopers that dropped in or grounders that snuck through a hole or something lucky like that.

Quentin - Fine

Soto - Fine

Theriot - No. There is no way Theriot's lack of power is compensated for by defense and speed. .239 EqA means speed absolutely didn't make up for it. Theriot is also not a very good defensive player, despite everyone's opinion on the North Side. He was -7 Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAA) for the season.

Pie - Fine, you win....after re-reading it I guess you're right.

Ricky Carmine, omittance of Owens is inexcusable. Even a high schooler would notice his name in just about every conversation with Guillen & Williams pertaining to young guns.

He hit better than .270 in the 2nd 1/2 & stole 32 bases in 90 games. Neither Ozzie or Kenny could care less what he SLG. If this kid produces a .350ish OBP in ST he will be the lead off hitter.

I just don't see Fields at 3B. I see him more of 1B/DH. He might improve defensively at 3B over a full season, but as he is now he's going to cost the White Sox games. They need to trade Konerko for Figgins, E Santana, & a prospect. Forget the 'drick. LAA isn't stupid. Then Fields/Thome can share 1B/DH duties.

3B - Figgins, SS - O Cabrera, C - AJ/Hall
2B - A-Ram/Dinhar/Uribe,
1B - Fields/Thome/Swisher
RF - Dye/Quentin
CF - Owens/Quentin
LF - Swisher/Owens

Lineup: Figgins, O Cabrera, Swisher, Thome, Dye, AJ, Fields, 2B guy, CF guy.

Adding E Santana to the pen transforms it to a big strength.

I agree with keithsouthside, when Fontenot got his regular at bats he and Theriot were on fire. They are both pests for the pitcher. I would love to see him get a full time shot in the 2 hole. Platoon Derosa and skip picking up the steroid king from Baltimore. Get Bedard. A big time stud lefty who would give us a solid top 3. Give them Marshall, Gallagher, and Murton. Hes young and is always near the top in strikeouts. This is what they need to be a serious contender for the series... Theriot,Fontenot,Lee,Ramirez,Soriano,Fukudome,Soto,Pie, and a rotation of Zambrano,Bedard,Lilly,Marquis,Hill, Pen Marmol closer,Hart,Wood,Wuertz, Lieber long relief insurance for Marquis and the rest fight it out..= World Series

I'd like to see both Crede and Fields playing for the Sox this year. Have we forgotten how good a clutch hitter Crede was in 2005? This is the critical element of any winning team. Fields
could play second or left. Crede would make our woefully ineffective lineup from last year much better. When things are
stagnating offensively,all it takes is a big hit to energize the rest of the lineup. We need Crede in the lineup!

Trying to be politically correct here, to respect both sides of town, Can we please remember Carlos Zambrano will NEVER be a 20 game winner more than twice in his cryingwolf career? And the Sox? Keep a lid on Ozzie. He was a terrific shortstop, and a good manager the first couple of years. But he is running thin with his tirades and diatribes.
Cubs will win the division because of Lou Pinella, and the Sox will not because of Ozzie Guillen. And I say that with a grain of salt because I am a Sox fan...

It appears to me sitting out here on the "west coast" that Kenny Williams has been duped by his boss or he does not have the ability and moxie to make "THE" trade or trades that will take the Sox back to the World Series. Why did Kenny not sign Rowand? He is perfect for South Side Park.

Kenny, for being a Stanford alum, you sure have sucked it up to be Jerry's lap dog. Please try to get a spine!!!

I am really puzzled as to why Jay Mariotti takes personal shots at the White Sox every chance he gets(not just the organization but the people themselves). I don't agree with what Ozzie Guillen said about Mariotti a while back, but it's way past the point of "enough is enough". I have only read the headlines to his dumb a$$ columns and it's enough to make me not read it(generally not the effect one hopes for from an headline)......

Someone needs to reign him in, or someone from the Sox needs to kick his A$$.....either solution will do.

Juan, no, Jerry Owens is terrible and would not make 60-70% of major league baseball rosters....Ozzie Guillen just has a crush on speedsters. The fact that Ozzie and Kenny don't care about his SLG means that they are being stupid, not that Jerry Owens can be forgiven for it (for the record, Ozzie doesn't care about his SLG, but I assure you, it bothers the crap out of Kenny.)

He will not OBP .350 because pitchers have no reason to throw him a large amount of pitches outside the strike zone. He's not going to take you deep, so pitchers are just gonna pound him with strikes. Unless you think that some miraculous improvement to his patience is in order, there is absolutely no reason to think that he'll OBP .350. Even if he did OBP .350, his complete lack of power makes him a significantly below average offensive player anyway, even if he swipes a bag or 40.

And finally, Juan, you're wrong, LAA is completely stupid. They paid $90M for Torii Hunter when he's barely better than Reggie Willits. Tony Reagins is screwed up in the head. He doesn't understand what a grotesque misuse of resources he's employing currently.

It's unbelievable, but Juan, I finally feel that you have earned the title of "poster who is most often (read: constantly) wrong". Keith Lifetime Southsider, consider yourself off the hook.

Now, please, can we all stop pretending that Jerry Owens will ever be an average major league player? Thanks, it would save me plenty of headaches and typings.

Allan Sprehe, you are very, VERY confused about the amount that a manager actually matters.

Reasons that the White Sox will not win the division, in order of importance.

1) Gavin Floyd
2) Jose Contreras
3) Detroit seems more talented at nearly every single position and starting rotation spot.
4) The organization is considering using Jerry Owens instead of Carlos Quentin.
5) There's a chance that 2B is a black hole.
6) Thome, Konerko, and Dye are another year older.
7) Josh Fields strikes out too much, making his OBP dangerously low.
8) Kenny Williams overrated Orlando Cabrera, and re-swapping him for Garland would make the Sox better, provided Juan Uribe is not traded by the season's beginning.
9) Decent chance of a Buehrle regression
10)....
11)....
.
.
.
.
116) Ozzie Guillen is a below-average major league manager
.
.
.
.
.
401) Jenks is fat.

So you see, it's kind of out of Ozzie's hands. I hope you do better next time and explain a team's success and failure by talking about people that actually play the games! Managers fill out the lineup card.

- Noles

Pie's hyperactive bat and goofy batting stance make him the baseball equivalent of a Sunday golfer. About once every 50 times, he has a perfect swing. He needs to watch film....lots of film....of Billy Williams, because the Cubs are too dumb to have the sweet swinger actually work with the kid.

I just want to say I think the Cubs have a very good line up I hope that they pick up Kenny Lofton that would complete the line up and the outfield very well I think Pie would only be a weakness in the line up. If the Cubs ownership really wanted to end the 100 year drought Lofton and Livian Hernandez would do it.

Noles:"Jerry Owens is terrible and would not make 60-70% of major league baseball rosters"

Stupid it is as stupid does.

Owens would not only make 60-70% of the rosters, but he would be an opening day starter on about 1/3rd of teams.

Grow a brain before you respond to my posts.

Setting the record straight on Owens:

He had a bad first 1/2 (though just 75 AB). He was sent down on Jun 20th. They obviously corrected something because he was back up by Jul 3rd.

Playing regularly in the 2nd 1/2 Owens hit .278A, .339 OBP. The biggest difference was his K/BB ratio. It was a respectable 2. He really came on in Sept against mostly ALC teams. His OPS that month was .767 w a .396 OBP.

The White Sox obviously feel he's ready.

To Mr. Noles. I agree with you. I should pay more attention to the baseball clubs the Cubs and Sox have put out for nearly a century, save for 1959 and 2005. You are right, but you have to remember we have, as Chicago fans, been starving since our Great Grandfathers haled from this city! Can we all just quiet down, watch Ozzie get himself fired, and have Lou retire a 2 division winner, with no wins in the Postseason? Then pray to Harry and Jack Almighties that Zell gets smart, which I will never accuse him of being, sportswise, and tear down Wrigley, rebuild it from scratch, and sell the team to Mark Cuban?

Allan Sprehe - Managers don't do that much, leave it at that. You're easily the less offensive of two wrongos here.

Juan - There's a stat called WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player) that approximates how many more wins a player was worth to his team than an average triple-A player that plays the same position.

Care to take a guess what Jerry Owens's WARP was in 2007?

Exactly zero.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/owensje01.php

Owens is a terrible center fielder. He OBPed .324. He SLUGGED .312. SLUGGED. Do you have any idea how little power you have to have to SLUG .312??? Even guys with little power like Orlando Cabrera manage to crack .400 a lot. Don't try the whole "he's young and will improve" argument because Baseball Prospectus has him pegged for a career as a 5th outfielder. What you see is what you get. As good as you claim he was in the 2nd half (which is still bad....OBP about average, power in the dumps), there's a low chance he can do it over 162 games.

So I'm curious, Juan, what are these "1/3 of teams" that Jerry Owens can start on? He's not good enough to start on the roster he's on, for starters, because Carlos Quentin and Nick Swisher are both way, way better.

I can't even think of ONE major league team on which Jerry Owens would be the best center fielder. Go ahead. Try to name me one. I dare you (I bet one or two actually exist).

I still can't believe you think Jerry Owens is good, so I'm back to help you put a .312 SLG into perspective. Guess what Scott Podsednik's SLG was in 2005 (a season in which he hit zero HR)?

.349

Jerry owens had 12 extra-base hits in 356 ABs.

That's beyond terrible.

BP is about as useful as pre-NBA/NFL draft guides. It's a crap shoot at best. WARP is meaningless for any player with less than yr of ML service. The only useful point you made was comparison to Pods.

Pods career SLG is .377 but in 2005 it was just .349. Owens hit .340 in Sept & SLG .371. That's why both Kenny & Ozzie have stated CF is his job to lose in ST.

Unlike you they aren't dumb enough to count his AB's in Jun when he was obviously not ready. They are looking at what he did after he was called back up in the 2nd 1/2. Likewise they aren't dumb enough to compare him to a regular ML CFer. They were just looking for improvement over the course of that 1/2 & they definitely found it in Sept.

As for your assessment of the White Sox it's equally clueless. If Owens does well in ST, CF is his. Quentin isn't even ready for ST yet. He's still rehabbing! Swisher is likely to start at LF but there is the possibility he would start at 1B if Konerko is traded. A-Ram, having no ML AB's, has to perform much better than Owens to beat him out. He's more likely to win a job at 2B.
Anderson is nothing but trade bait right now.

Speedsters with no power are not the type of player that get much better than they are when they first arrive in the league. Carlos Quentin was a top 20 prospect at one point, Owens is pegged to be a 5th outfielder (which is exactly what his profile fits....little offensive production, serviceable at all 3 outfield spots, good pinch runner). Quentin has breakout potential. Owens has almost none. To even CONSIDER not giving Quentin a shot in favor of inserting a poor defensive CF who is a pretty bad hitter would be insane. Also, 1/2 a season is not a big enough sample size to determine if Owens really took a step foward or if he was just getting lucky.

For example, his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) was .322, which is a good 20-30 points or so above the mean. Because he hits so many ground balls, this means he was getting a little lucky on where those balls bounced.

To dismiss BP as "useless" shows absolute ignorance and a complete misunderstanding of what they do. That was a completely and totally crazy thing to say.

Also, you failed to mention teams on which Jerry Owens is the best option in center field! Were you just making wild claims without proof? That's not a good argumentative tactic!

I can't believe I have to go through such great lengths to convince someone that Jerry Owens is very, very bad at baseball. Here, let's go through the teams and try to find one on which Owens is the best CF?

Royals - No, DeJesus
Indians - No, Sizemore
Tigers - No, Granderson
White Sox - No, Swisher
Twins - Yes....I guess he's better than Craig Monroe
Yankees - No, Cabrera
Red Sox - No, Ellsbury
Blue Jays - No, Wells
Orioles - Yes....he's better than Payton at this point.
Devil Rays - No, Upton
Angels - No, Hunter
Athletics - No, Denorfia (go ahead, try to claim that Billy Beane would take a straight up Owens for Denorfia swap, I dare you)
Mariners - No, Suzuki
Rangers - No, Hamilton
Braves - No, Kotsay
Marlins - No, Maybin (same logic as Denorfia)
Mets - No, Beltran
Phillies - No, Victorino
Nationals - No, Milledge
Astros - No, Bourn
Brewers - No, Cameron
Cardinals - No, Ankiel
Cubs - No, Pie (same awful bat, but at least Pie can field, and he has more upside at the plate than Owens)
Pirates - No, Morgan
Reds - No, Freel
Diamondbacks - No, Young
Dodgers - No, Jones
Giants - No, Rowand
Padres - No, Edmonds
Rockies - No, Taveras

So there you go. Jerry Owens is better than two starting Major League center fielders. If you want to debate any item on this list, I would be more than happy to. Just warning you, you can't win unless you convince me that Ryan Freel's awful 2007 was more than just a fluke. And I'm sure you've never heard of him, so good luck with that.

Noles: Also, 1/2 a season is not a big enough sample size to determine if Owens really took a step foward or if he was just getting lucky.

That's goes both way. 1/2 a season is not enough to determine that he's a horrible baseball player.

On that basis, you have to look at what he's done in the minors as well. It goes w/out saying that with his speed he's likely to be more luckier than the avg player w GB's. But that's not likely to fluctuate greatly each yr unless he gets hurt.

I'd sure like to see what stats you're looking at that suggest he's a horrible fielder as well now that you've added that bit.

Learn how to read. S starter on a 1/3rd of the teams > starting CF on those teams! So go & expand your analysis to all teams for all OF positions & see if you come up with 10 :)

Noles - that was Eastwood-esque. ooo-ooo-ooo...wah-wah-wah!

It's people that think like Noles that prevent championships with a modest payroll in MLB. I'll put this in the most simplest terms that even you can understand.

Without Pods, the White Sox do not win the World Series in 2005.

Owens is a better player at his age in every facet of the game than Pods was. Pods .443 SLG in 2003 was a fluke. He's basically a mid 300 SLG player. Yet he did manage to hit the most important HR of his career at the most opportune time.

The White Sox are not going to win a World Series taking the big money low risk route. No one can compete with both the Yanks & the BoSox at that game. They have to do it taking the mid money mid risk route. You can gamble on the belief that Owens can do for you what Pods did in 2005 & then spit him out when he gets to be costly for his production. Before that happens you try to groom a replacement.

I'm still waiting for your list of all 30 teams & their OF positions so I can pick it apart :)