Reason why the Bears will win
Special teams.
I did a story on Accuscore http://www.suntimes.com/sports/football/bears/229157,CST-SPT-game25.article last week. It's been the most accurate forecaster of games. While eight ESPN experts picked the Saints, Accuscore picked the Bears. And it picked the Bears on Dec. 13 to beat the Saints by more than 10 points.
It's been over 60 percent against the Vegas spread.
Accuscore predicted the Colts to win Sunday, but not by the 7-point Vegas spread. It's got the game around 3 1/2, and according to Accuscore, the liveliest variable for the Bears appears to be special teams.
If Devin Hester returns one for a TD, Accuscore makes it an even game that could go either way. But Hester doesn't even have to return it all the way, just give the Bears a short field.
The Bears special teams played a huge role against the Saints, stripping the ball and recovering. That's all it could take Sunday.
Comments
Let's just hope we can make them punt the darn ball! They led the league in least punts (47...next was 56, then somewhere in the high 60s after that). They have a terrible coverage unit though...probably cuz they don't practice much! Go Bears D! A couple of 3 and outs will make us winners!
Posted by: mikebdot | January 29, 2007 12:47 PM
Well, Hester couldn't ask for a better scenario; he's playing in the same town he played his college ball against a weak coverage team.
And yes, there is some concern as to whether or not the D will be able to force punts. I say the key variable in that equation is Mark Anderson, who's going to have to come up big. If he and the rest of the D-line are able to hurry Peyton Manning (and Peanut is able to keep his defenders in front of him, that should happen.
Posted by: darryl m | January 29, 2007 02:05 PM
Best case scenario, we kick off and get a quick 3 and out. Hester makes a decent return, 20+ yards, and we score on that first possession. If they score first we will be playing catchup all night.
Posted by: JZ | January 29, 2007 02:07 PM
What you didn't mention in the article are examples of where accuscore failed. It is still a computer simulation, so it can't include the emotional aspects of a game.
The Bears will prove accuscore wrong and win because the team will focus their emotions and make sure that each and everyone performs at a championship level. As Lovie has told them: Finish.
Roman responds: I think I said it was 62 percent against the spread. It's not always right, but Bears fans should be happy it's got the game as being closer than Vegas does.
Posted by: Romas | January 29, 2007 02:45 PM
The BEARS will win by getting ahead of the Colts Roman. I can see the BEARS being the more agressive team right from the outset. They'll do it by running well and just 1 deep strike to Berrian or Davis. I just don't see the Colts being able to stop the run once Rex successfully goes deep. Eat up the clock and use Desmond and with that one deep pass the Colts will get tentative on "D".
Then the Colts will begin to press, no quarterback does well under those circumstances. I like Manning but I have a sneaking suspicion he'll press and try to force a few throws into coverage.
As the week goes on, instead of feeling more nervous I'm actually becoming more confident.
There are times where for no particular reason, you just get a cosmic revelation and just know. Haven't felt that way in 21 years, but it is a little different this time in that you knew the 85 team was going to devastate whomever they played. This year is more exciting because we weren't SURE of anything (especially after reading this blog all year) and thus I believe this will be much more gratifing.
Posted by: Grizzly in Orkando | January 29, 2007 08:19 PM
Brendo Ayanbadejo, Adrian Peterson are wonderful special teams players and we haven't given up many big plays on our coverage. Actually, we haven't given up many yards. This could be huge in a close game.It's great to score on special teams but when you have great punts(Maynard),kickoffs(Gould) and coverage(Ayanbadejo) you can always keep yourself in a game. If Hester scores then the Colts are really in trouble. This is an area that the Bears can feel very confident in.
Posted by: MOMO | January 30, 2007 03:04 AM
First of all, over the past 40 years, the Bears are below .500 for winning games in cold weather. But they're 5-2 when it snows. It snowed against the Saints, so now they're 6-2. The Colts are favored because of their Offense. But the Bears have a better Defense. The number one factor in this game is Rex. He played for the University of Florida. So did Alex Brown, Todd Johnson and Ian Scott. Not to mention Devin Hester who played for the University of Miami. And the game's in Miami. (80 something degrees) And the Bears play better in warm weather. The Colts however, LOST 4 games this year in warm weather. (Dallas, Tennessee, Jacksonville & Houston) The Bears lost in COLD weather 3 times this year. (Twice in Chicago and once in New England) So remember, Florida's Rex vs Tennessee's Peyton, playing in Florida? Plus, Peyton was 0-3 for the Univ. of Tenn. in the state of Florida. Advantage: Rex. Bears 27 Colts 17
Posted by: damjaxon | January 30, 2007 06:17 AM
Special teams is going to make this a very interesting game. Not just the Hester factor, which may turn out to be huge, but I think the Robbie Gould factor could be huge as well.
The Florida factor might play well into the Hester/Grossman scenarios.
Then there's the deer in the headlights factor that Peyton Manning is going to be experiencing after he is jolted by a blindsided sack midway through the first quarter by Mark Anderson and subjected to the fear of going down even harder next time.
There will also be the 5 turnover factor by the Colts.
Truth is, the more I hear how much the Bears won't do it, the more I think they will. They're just licking their chops waiting to get a piece of horse meat.
GO BEARS!!
Posted by: J-man | January 30, 2007 06:24 AM
Special teams is going to make this a very interesting game. Not just the Hester factor, which may turn out to be huge, but I think the Robbie Gould factor could be huge as well.
The Florida factor might play well into the Hester/Grossman scenarios.
Then there's the deer in the headlights factor that Peyton Manning is going to be experiencing after he is jolted by a blindsided sack midway through the first quarter by Mark Anderson and subjected to the fear of going down even harder next time.
There will also be the 5 turnover factor by the Colts.
Truth is, the more I hear how much the Bears won't do it, the more I think they will. They're just licking their chops waiting to get a piece of horse meat.
GO BEARS!!
Posted by: J-man | January 30, 2007 06:29 AM
After the Bears win by dominating defensively and through special team play will they finally get the respect they deserve? OR will the talking heads simply claim Peyton Manning CHOKED AGAIN?
Posted by: Tim Little | January 30, 2007 07:12 AM
I agree Devin will be a difference maker. Consider this[heard on ESPN] The Colts defense only forced 23 three and outs in the regular season...run the ball Bears like the Saints game and we win..
Posted by: Jesse D. Wininger | January 30, 2007 07:56 AM
I think what everyone is forgetting is that this game is played outdoors. I think the Colts are an average team outside. And I believe the Saints offense was going to be to much for the Bears and we all saw what happened there. I don't think this game will be close but it will be in the Bears favor.
Posted by: Mike Tomaszewski | January 30, 2007 08:18 AM
Colts D gave up 34 points versus Pats. If Colts D comes close to its performance in AFC title game Bears should be able to run on it.Bears D & special teams I believe will make difference in game..Bears 34 Colts 26
Posted by: Joe Hendrickson | January 30, 2007 08:39 AM
The bears must not get blinded by the media an the hype. If they come out sunday with fire in their eyes, mad as hell ,ready to prove a point, they WILL win big time, rubbin dirt in mannings face as the front four play a defining game of get/kick his ass.
Posted by: Joe Scavuzza | January 30, 2007 10:56 AM
The Bears will win because Rex will have a solid performance. I think the running game will get off to a good start and some short passes will help Rex settle down. With the running game churning, the Colts won't have much time with the ball. As a added bonus, the Colts special teams are horrible and I think the offense will have good field position on a few occasions.
There are always the intangibles such as our ability to score on defense and special teams.
If we shut down the Colts running game and limit those middle of the field short passes, don't be surprised if the game gets out of hand.
You heard it here first. GO BEARS!
Posted by: NE | January 30, 2007 12:55 PM
Keys to victory in the Superbowl:
- Bears must run for at least 150 yards
- Bears must hold Colts running game under 100 yards
- Bears must have at least a +2 turnover ratio
- Bears can give up only one sack
- Bears must have at least three sacks
- Bears defense cannot give up any offensive plays over 20 yards
- Grossman must have a completion percentage above 50% and throw for over 200 yards
- Hester must average over 25 yards/return on kickoffs and over 10 yards/return on punts and needs to break a couple of returns well over those averages
Basically, a replay of their performance against the Saints...
Posted by: JohnF | January 30, 2007 12:56 PM
Isnt it very funny how bears fans so the bears must do this or must do that to win. Let me tell you one thing and this is something that no one has really mentioned. Ron Rivera is very smart and the Cover 2 can diguise many things such as the Bears playing the 4-3 defense in and out, playing prevent and even the dime with the quick linebackers that they have. I think the deffense will come up big in confusing Peyton Manning. The one thing that Manning hasnt seen in any of his playing days is three linebackers who could play Middle linebacker on any other team in the NFL. All can run and play coverage and also stop the run. There isnt a better linebacker corp in the NFL. Lance Briggs will have a huge game as the Colts key on taking Urlacher out of the game. I also would be supprised if Lance Briggs ends up with the MVP. Mark it down 1 fumble recovery, 1 caused fumble- 1 Sack, 2 knockdowns 6 tackles. P- nut 1 int and nate vasher 1 int. 28-17 bears.
Posted by: Jay Moss | January 30, 2007 02:02 PM
The Bears have to run the ball. The Colts have a poor run defense and will give up many yards. I am looking at a solid first half or running from the Bears. Once the Colts get used to one back the Bears will throw in the other and break it open.
What needs to be done besides a good special teams game is clock management. If the Bears run the ball well this will keep Peyton off the field and give the D plenty of time to recover for the next round of no-huddles. Everyone know Peyton will no-huddle all day to try to tire out the D. As long as the d-backs prevent the long pass and keep Harrison and Wayne from getting into a rythm the Bears will win. Score: Bears 27 Colts 23
Posted by: TroyS | January 30, 2007 03:25 PM
I think JohnF was on the right track but looking at all of his bullets, there's about a 1% chance of all of them happening. I think it's more simple:
- 2 or more TO's by the Bears D
- No Int's from Rex
- 120+ yards rushing for Bears
THAT is the Saint's game in a nutshell. If these 3 things happen, I'd give the Bears a 90% chance of winning.
Posted by: Mark P | January 30, 2007 04:03 PM
Wow...after reading these posts from Bears fans it shows how unrealistic they can be. One guy is talking how Peyton never beat the University of Florida...yeah, that is going to factor in! Good point, silly Chicagoan.
Another guy on here states that Peyton will be a 'deer in headlihgts' after he's sacked. A sack or two could happen, but Manning is the least sacked QB in the NFL, so its not that likely. Indy has faced Baltimore and New England...both much better defenses than Chicago's. Trust me, he knows how to react to the blitz better than any QB.
And, you forget that Chicago is the NFC's best team...which means it would be top 4 at BEST in the AFC. Indy will win this in a rout...that is logic. Chicago: stay in your little fantasy "media world" up there and tell each other that the Colts will lose because they lost in a warm climate this year (they play in a dome, idiot, where they were 10-0) and when Indy blows out the Bears you'll fall a lot harder.
Good luck stopping Harrison and Wayne. That could happen for a little while, but Dallas Clark will be open all day up the middle. Focus on that, Addai and Rhodes kill you on the running game, only to set up play action for a huge completion to Harrison/Wayne. You can't stop us, only one part of us.
Also, Rex Grossman will be our best player that night. We won't do any favors by GIVING you the game the way the Saints did.
Posted by: Ben Brown | January 30, 2007 04:14 PM
The key will be keeping the pressure on Manning, the game will go to the Bears 30 to 20. I predicted the New Orleans score and I felt it would go to the Bears in a lopsided fashion.
I see a fire in the eyes of both the Bears offense and defense like I haven't since 1985. I've been at this for 62 years I know they are hungry.
Bring on the meat.
Rosy
Posted by: Larry Ross (Rosplochowski) | January 30, 2007 04:20 PM
The key to the game will be the defense. I'm not so worried about the deep threat, Wayne and Harrison are chokers, but it's the short dump offs to Addai that worry me. As they showed against the Chiefs, the Colts will settle for the dump for 5-6 yards any time. And I don't like that matchup against our D. We play soft zone so that pass will be there all day for Manning. That is how they stay on the field for such long periods of time.
Basically, stop the short stuff, win the big one.
Posted by: AndreiA. | January 30, 2007 04:56 PM
You are all crazy!. You point out how we only had 23 three and out during the regular season. Our D has forced numerous three and outs in the playoffs. As well we are holding teams to almos 100 yards less rushing. PLEASE TRY AND RUN THE BALL ON US ALL GAME LONG. PLEASE!!!. After 3 three and outs and trailing 17 to 0 you will realize that Sexy Rexy sucks and is not made to win a shootout. Also welcome Freeney to Rexy. good night bear down.
Posted by: Matt | January 30, 2007 05:08 PM
if the bears play like they did against the saints theyll win
with ease but rex has to be a superbowl quaterback,they say he beat payton in college 2 out of 3 times but this is not college this is the big grandaddy of them all . go rex, &the rest of the team
oh urlacker will get 3 sacks on sunday with a touchdown included.
maybe they can use tank johnson on offence like the refidgerator was used in 85, gooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo bears
Posted by: joe burke / stjohn indiana | January 30, 2007 05:39 PM
The Bears are going to win because not only do they have Chicago based fans, but also NorthWest Indina fans. People here who live in the Hoosier state, but still related more with Chicago then Indy are going to be cheering for the orange Bears and not the blues.
Posted by: Blaine Hilton | January 30, 2007 11:03 PM
Why the Bears WON'T win??? Because the idiot Tank Johnson will still be sulking Sunday morning on how he is a victim of racism. We should have cut him 6 weeks ago.
Posted by: Mark W | January 31, 2007 06:40 AM
I think its funny how all the sports analysts are saying how the Colts will rout the Bears and that this won't be a good game but then when it comes down to breaking down the parts of the game it always seem to side for Chicago. They say who has a better passing game...Indy, better running game...Chicago, better pass defense...Indy, rush defense...Chicago, special teams...Chicago. So Chicago is even with Indy in all facets if not better with special teams included but Indy will rout the Bears.
Colts fans seem to forget that the Saints were a dump team with Deuce and Bush being their leading recievers and the D handled them just fine except for one break-away for Bush-league. I don't remember the Colts having a game breaking like that coming out of the backfield. And there is no linebacking core better on coverage than the Bears so I want to see how many times Clark will be "open all day" down the middle.
Posted by: TroyS | January 31, 2007 08:59 AM
Bears 34 Colts 31 as Rex throws two TD passes one each to Clark and Berrian.
Hester a 45 yard punt return.....Jones and Benson rushing TD each, Jone 94 yds and Benson 63 yds rushing..Jone 32 yards receiving... Gould 2 FG's.
Urlacher and Briggs 1 sack each and Manning big interception on Bears 30 yd line. Urlacher 5 tackles.
Posted by: Don Merkle | January 31, 2007 09:05 AM
"if the bears play like they did against the saints theyll win
with ease but rex has to be a superbowl quaterback,they say he beat payton in college 2 out of 3 times but this is not college this is the big grandaddy of them all" ----PEYTON GRADUATED FROM UT IN 1997, AND GROSSMAN GRADUATED FROM COLLEGE IN 1998. IDIOT POST
"The Bears are going to win because not only do they have Chicago based fans, but also NorthWest Indina fans. People here who live in the Hoosier state, but still related more with Chicago then Indy are going to be cheering for the orange Bears and not the blues" ---I DON'T KNOW HOW TO RESPOND TO THIS POST. IDIOT POST.
"Colts fans seem to forget that the Saints were a dump team with Deuce and Bush being their leading recievers and the D handled them just fine except for one break-away for Bush-league. I don't remember the Colts having a game breaking like that coming out of the backfield. And there is no linebacking core better on coverage than the Bears so I want to see how many times Clark will be "open all day" down the middle." ----THE SAINTS WERE 10-6 IN THE NFC. THEY ARE TERRIBLE. IDIOT POST
You guys really have some knowledgable fans in Chicago. You guys played in the minors this year....you will get blown out by the Colts to the tune of 44-17. Freakin' Rex Grossman? Yeah right.
Posted by: Seth L | January 31, 2007 10:28 AM
First of all the bears are tied for second in the nfl for scoring offense with indy behind the saints.Both teams numbers were inflated because of early season success so i don't see how all you idiot colt fans think peyton is a so much better in his o then the bears.Second, you guys wish that the baltimore and the pats d were so much better then the bears,get a grip!We have a better running game then any of the teams that you guys have played all year so be careful what you ask for.Sorry but your boys are soft sissies who are gonna get beat the f++k up by a more physical team.The saints had a way better o then you guys and look what we did to them,come on.I won't even go there on special teams cuz we all know the bears are far and above the best unit int the nfl.You guys got peyton and thats it.One man doesn't make a team so get used to the usual choke job.
Posted by: sal | January 31, 2007 11:50 AM
Why couldn't the media just ignore Tank Johnson. I don't know in what pretext they asked him questions but why would his response rate a whole article from Jay? He won't be sulking on Sunday he'll be playing like he always has. Any man would know that they would go lighter on him if he came back a winner. You can not convince me that all that "character" we had in 85 never got in trouble with the law. But since this is 2007 and so many slow newsdays we have to hear about what Tank Johnson feels about racism. How many people thought what he said about preconceived notions was a lie? I wonder how many players felt that race was a bigger factor than they let on. Ignore Tank. He'll grow up sooner or later. GO BEARS!!!
Posted by: William R.Donald | January 31, 2007 01:11 PM
I think that if somone is going to post something on this they should have some kind of argument about or against other posts instead of sayind IDIOT POST. I could say that as well but instead choose to have some information to back an idea or belief. If the Colts do win...good for them. They solved a defense that baffled a few of the best teams this year. Brady earlier (even though the Patriots beat them Brady had a lousy game), Brees with 1 int, 1 fumble and 1TD(leader in many categories and should have been MVP) and Hasselbeck. The D will pressure and throw Manning off his rhythm. Many analysts are starting to sway after looking film leading up to the game.
Posted by: TroyS | January 31, 2007 02:14 PM
To the great Indianan,(or whatever you call them)Mark P.
How is it that the Saints "gave" the game to the Bears??? Looked like they just took it.
Name one,JUST ONE,team with a bad Defense that has ever won a Super Bowl---Quick.The answer is ZERO.And that won't change Sunday.
The Bears will win because they have the better team.Morino never won the Bowl.Elway only won when he got Terrell Davis.(Believe me,your RB's are NOT Terrell Davis!!!) No,you're just a homer.But God bless you,what else do you have to do down there???
The mere thought of a team from Indianapolis beating a team from Chicago in The Big Game(the Pacers tried throughout the 90's) is
nauseating.A'int happnin, hoosier.
Posted by: David spellman | January 31, 2007 02:48 PM
I know the numbers might say Indy's pass defense is better but I dont see it. All of the Colts opponents were usually playing from behind and had to pass and the colts knew it. I would never trade the colts secondary for Da Bears NEVER! The Bears are the most unbeatable team in the NFL when they are playing with a lead and they know their opponent has to pass. Da Best! The key to this game is scoring first while running the football and the special teams. If we consistently get good returns we wont lose this game no way. The ideal way to start would be to go up 3-0 or 7-0 with a punt on its way to you know who from Da U! and then you could pretty much wrap this thing up. Bears 31 Colts 23 and it wont even look that close.
Posted by: Joe A. | January 31, 2007 03:01 PM
If the Bears complete one long ball early, the Colts are in big trouble. Any softening of their scheme to stop the run will lead to a monumental pounding on the ground. Also, Addai is an impressive rookie, but there is no way he and Rhodes have any chance of a productive day against the Bears. It's just not going to happen. Peyton Manning will have that mopey look on his face at the end of the game when he tries to explain why his team lost. C'mon, you know the face- it's the one he gives his Dad in the commercial when he and Eli are misbehaving in the ESPN offices. Many football fans don't realize how good the Bears actually are. If boredom is not an issue (which it won't be in the SuperBowl), the Bears are dominant. I've said it before and I'll say it again...This is only the beginning of a Bears Dynasty that will bring no less than three, count 'em, THREE Vince Lombardi Trophies to Halas Hall! We're so good from top to bottom that I'm not even worried about jinxing myself or knocking on wood.
p.s. Did I miss the memo that Jeff Saturday is better than Olin Kreutz? Sorry, I'm just not buying it.
Posted by: Clint Clack! | January 31, 2007 03:10 PM
I think there's a plot available for the Colts' hopes and dreams.
Lets just say its a bad week for horses.
Bear Down!
Posted by: Clint Clack! | January 31, 2007 03:15 PM
The Colts this season have struggled or lost when away from home, almost without exception. I think Lovie's got his team in the right frame of mind to take advantage of this factor.
Posted by: Tom Campbell | January 31, 2007 03:31 PM
GET AHEAD RUN JONES RUN BENSON RUN RUN RUN TILL THEY TAKE IT AWAY AND DA DE SHOWS UP . GO BEARS GO.///
Posted by: ERNIE TAYLOR | January 31, 2007 03:47 PM
Just wanted to let you all know that, although in a minority, some of us Saints fans are pulling for “Da Bears”. Some say that I should be rooting for that Manning kid, but instead I am going with the “home” conference, the NFC.
Some unruly Bears fans apparently p@#*ed off a lot of our Saints fans in Soldier field, but I try to remind them that it was a FOOTBALL game, not a night at the opera. Provided the attacks are not physical (most were not) this is to be expected at a FOOTBALL game. The taunts are tolerable for the thick skinned, (we really are not ALL a bunch of whiners).
I, for one, do not harbor any ill feelings towards da Bears or the majority of Bears fans. Therefore I would like to say- from this Saints fan- to the great city of Chicago;
CONGRATULATIONS, GOOD LUCK, GO NFC AND GO BEARS!!!
(Whodat say dey gonna beat “da Bears?)
P.S. Looking forward to seeing y’all in Soldier Field next season.
Posted by: JVILLERE | January 31, 2007 06:08 PM
Do you folks actually believe what you write, or is this just some form of mass delusion? A windy city for sure. Good luck Care Bears, you're going to need it.
Posted by: Joe Colt | January 31, 2007 08:38 PM
Bears will win this game on defense...but not in the way most suspect. The key to the Bears Beating Manning is don't blitz him! For two weeks the colts have been working on screens, draws, and slants, to avoid onrushing linebackers. So show blitz...and when Manning goes through his histrionics, back out of it! Right there you already will force a game plan change on the colt's part.
This will also enable Urlacher to stay on Dallas Clark's hip the whole game. Reggie Wayne and harrison will be covered two deep all day long. The only worry is a three wide out set. im not sure if Daniel Manning is up to the task.
The colts running game can be stuffed at the line easy enough by 4 lineman who are intent on stopping the run and pass rush second. yes it sounds dangerous to give manning time in the pocket. but everyone, all year, has tried blitzing him and often times they are burned by him floating in the pocket to buy enough time for a single covered wayne to get open. This will take away worries about personnell problems against the no huddle as well.
Posted by: steve fowler | January 31, 2007 09:01 PM
Hi to the Saints fan, Ernie. Thank you for the very nice post about our Bears. There are a lot of unruly fans in every sport, in every city (alcohol only adds to the unruliness!). The Saints did a great job of turning themselves around from last year. Good luck to you in the coming season. As for this Sunday, Da Bears will rule, say something like 42-20....GO BEARS!!!!!!!!!