Inside the Cubs

Updates on what's going on with the Cubs' most compelling arbitration case left - with shortstop Ryan Theriot - and what looks like the impending addition of good-guy former Red Sox ``Idiot'' first baseman Kevin Millar to spring training camp on a minor-league courtesy deal.

First, the Theriot case:

Whether the Cubs' arbitration stalemate with the shortstop becomes a test case for two years of sagging salary market in baseball, one thing is clear: Theriot and the team are bracing for a hearing, according to sources on both sides.

Less than a month remains before the Cubs report to spring training (yes, in Mesa), but with several key pieces of business still undone (top arbitration cases, at least two more acquisitions), they've barely reached what amounts to the midterm of their off-season work.

Here's a look at the quality of the work so far. The Cubs' midterm off-season grades, by subject:

Cubs and Carlos Zambrano's people are refuting today's New York Post story that Cubs and Yankees have talked about a trade of Big Z to New York.

Forget for a minute that the Cubs' starting pitching depth is in question -- at least to start the season -- because of Ted Lilly's recent shoulder surgery.

At least as big a deal: Zambrano has a full no-trade clause and has no desire to go anywhere else.

Furthermore, ``Jim has not approached us about Carlos waiving the no-trade provision of his contract, nor is Carlos interested in waiving it,'' said Zambrano's agent, Barry Praver, via e-mail.

The Cubs tendered offers to all of their arbitration-eligible players today except injured pitcher Neal Cotts, as expected.

Closer Carlos Marmol and shortstop Ryan Theriot, both first-time eligible players, headline the eight-man group and figure to get the biggest salary jumps over last season.

The others tendered offers: pitchers Tom Gorzelanny, Angel Guzman and Sean Marshall; catcher Koyie Hill; and infielders Mike Fontenot and Jeff Baker.

Players and arb players exchange salary figures next month. And proceed to arbitration hearings if unable to agree to terms before then. The Cubs haven't gone to a hearing with a player since Mark Grace in 1993.

The Cubs hope to re-sign Cotts -- who had Tommy John elbow surgery last season, when he made $1.1 million -- to a minor-league deal if he doesn't sign elsewhere.

The increased interest by at least two more teams in Milton Bradley the first day of the winter meetings here in Indianapolis has the Cubs anticipating a break in the logjam over bad contracts and money that stalemated talks with teams for the past month.

Whether a deal ultimately gets done in Indy before teams head out Thursday, there's an expectation among some team officials that something will happen no later than the week or two after the meetings -- one source characterizing the feeling as a matter of when not if.

That's with the Cubs moving him without eating the vast majority of the contract.

As we reported via twitter Monday, the Cubs don't intend to offer arbitration to any of their three significant free agents (Rich Harden, Kevin Gregg and Reed Johnson) at today's deadline, which means no draft-pick compensation for the team if those players sign elsewhere.

But that doesn't mean they don't intend to keep talking to Johnson about a possible return.

Declining to offer arbitration to Johnson was the only move that made sense in his case because he made $3 million last year and is not a $3 million player anymore as a fourth outfielder coming off three straight years of injuries (84-game average in that span).

An arbitration offer would have given him unnecessary leverage to stay in Chicago for another year at an inflated cost.

If Johnson's market value proves to be about where the Cubs think it is (modest one-year, incentive-filled contract, if he's even offered a guaranteed deal), then Johnson -- who has made it clear he doesn't want to leave -- can check out his value for himself on the open market and possibly wind up back on the North Side with a good payroll-fit contract that seems fair to both sides.

Jim Hendry said he considers the just concluded general managers meetings at the O'Hare Hilton fruitful and said that the abbreviated format seemed to encourage even more dialogue between GMs than the usual spread-out, longer sets of meetings in the past.

But just how successful those meetings were won't be known until he finishes dumping Milton Bradley - presumably by the winter meetings in Indianapolis in less than four weeks - and knows how much of the $21 million left on that contract he has to eat, and what player he gets in return.

``We were real pleased with the meetings,'' said Hendry, who joined assistant GM Randy Bush in meeting with ``seven or eight'' teams Tuesday night just ahead of Wednesday morning's wrapup. ``We felt we got a little direction on the path we might want to go. It was productive.

``We'd like to make a few moves before Indy. Then it really clears up. We don't have a lot of quantity to add. We want to make a few adjustments.''

Cubs general manager Jim Hendry used to face a barrage of questions this time of year centering on all the big names he would be interested in adding during the offseason. This time, he's facing a steady stream of questions asking about the one name everyone knows he must subtract.

Until he's gone, Milton Bradley continues to be Problem No. 1 for the Cubs and Hendry.

Which brought this question to mind Monday during the first day of the general managers meetings at the Hilton Chicago O'Hare Airport: Is there any scenario in which Bradley could return to the Cubs in 2010?

''He's on our roster and until he's not on our roster, that's how you have to look at it,'' Hendry said. ''A lot of people have had worse exits at the end of the year than that and they return.

''The goal is to do the best we can to put a good club on the field by spring training. Until people aren't here, as a general manager, I approach it like they are here. And that's what you deal with.''

The Cubs say that Ted Lilly's surgery last week doesn't change their minds about allowing Rich Harden to become a free agent without making an offer.

And it shouldn't.

Some critics of that sentiment have suggested the Cubs must try to retain Harden, but the team is right to let him go.

Harden's a good guy, and his talent is unquestioned.

But a history of injury problems and a thin free agent market for high-end pitchers almost guarantee Harden's ability to command a multi-year deal and suggest a strong possibility somebody will wind up overpaying for him.

Even in a season his balky shoulder didn't seem to be a problem until the final two weeks of the season, Harden was a pitcher who needed to be managed with extra rest between starts, when possible, and who averaged nearly 18 pitches an inning in 2009 -- making him a five-inning pitcher far too often.

Whether he rebounds to look at dominant as he did the first month the Cubs had him in 2008 (and for glimpses in '09), the risk is too great for a team looking at '11 and beyond for payroll flexibility (with contracts expiring) to make fundamental changes that extend and strengthen its competitive window.

Randy Wells is locked in among three healthy returning starters. Lilly may well be ready to pitch again at a high level by May. Jeff Samardzija may be ready to step into a starter's role next season. Tom Gorzelanny is a competitive candidate for the fifth starter job.

And lefty Sean Marshall is more than deserving of a full-fledged chance to start -- not to mention the fact he has a pretty decent track record as a starter-reliever swing man for this team the past two seasons, making him a capable stand-in for Lilly even if Lilly is out until the All-Star break.

Harden? At worst he'll create more instability in the rotation for a big-ticket price. At best, he's a dice roll not worth taking.

The groups trying to lure the Cubs out of Arizona and to the Naples, Fla., area for spring training are continuing to push, with a press conference scheduled today.

But no matter how strong their bid looks at the end of the day, a move to Southwest Florida for the Cubs would be foolish.

Watching the rain while pondering whether it's ironic or simply coincidence that the Cubs appear to be getting rained out in their first attempt to play a game in October this year.

Meanwhile, other random rain-delay thoughts include that T-shirt Ted Lilly was wearing yesterday touting the return of free agent teammate Reed Johnson: ``With Reed We Will Succeed.''

I've got a few other T-shirt ideas for these guys.

Keep him or trade him? Love him or hate him?

Call him your ace or call in a cavalry of physical and psychological therapists?

In other words, what do the Cubs do with Carlos Zambrano?