Just like scouting players for the draft is an inexact science, evaluating drafts is a tricky business as well.
It's impossible to put a grade with any kind of substance on a draft right after it's been concluded. The Houston Texans were roundly criticized for taking defensive end Mario Williams No. 1 overall in 2006. Looks like they made the right move in passing on Reggie Bush and Vince Young now, doesn't it.
Bears general manager Jerry Angelo said Tuesday that the hope is the team will get three starters out of this draft even though the team lacks first- and third-round picks. They feel like they have some good grades on players that will be available in the middle and late rounds, and the belief is three could eventually become starters.
"When we put a final grade on a player, that grade reflects what that player's going to be, in all likelihood in year two and three,'' Angelo said. "I remember when I was with the Cowboys, coach [Tom] Landry always would say if a player hasn't reached what we graded him at in year three, then obviously that in all likelihood was not going to happen.
"When we get a player graded, I want to take the onus off the scouts, to say: When you give that player that final grade, don't think that player has to come in and do that his rookie year. That's what is going to happen over a period of time and we really are looking at the second year, but the third year is when it has to happen."
How do you evaluate what a successful strike ratio is? That's another difficult question to answer. For one man's idea, we turn to former Texans general manager Charley Casserly, the man who signed off on Williams before he left the organization. Casserly has put together a 10-year study on drafts, evaluating each one after four years had passed. We found this in Mike Reiss' terrific blog over at the Boston Globe.
Here are the percentages Casserly outlined for finding a starting player in each round:
1st round: 75 percent
2nd round: 50 percent3rd round: 30 percent
4th round: 25 percent
5th round: 20 percent
6th round: 9 percent
7th round: 9 percent
