There are a lot of questions about Illinois defensive end Whitney Mercilus, who led the nation with 16 sacks.
Is he better suited for the 4-3 or 3-4? Is he a one-year wonder?
But, according to STATS LLC, Mercilus had a remarkable season that topped J.J. Watt, the defensive end for the Houston Texans who was selected 11th overall last year. While Watt had just 5 1/2 sacks during the regular season, he intercepted a pass against the Cincinnati Bengals in the Texans' first playoff game and returned it for a touchdown in a 17-10 win. Then, against the Baltimore Ravens, Watt had 2 1/2 sacks.
Watt had 16 1/2 hurries in 2010, at Wisconsin -- twice as many as Mercilus last season -- but he had five fewer knockdowns (19 1/2 to 14 1/2).
Mercilus had 27 1/2 knockdowns in 2011, two more than Melvin Ingram of South Carolina, according to STATS.
Of the draftable pass rushers, here's how they stack up in knockdowns (national ranking in parentheses):
1) Whitney Mercilus -- 27 1/2 (6th)
2) Melvin Ingram -- 25 1/2 (8th)
3) Nick Perry -- 21 (20th)
4) Courtney Upshaw -- 19 1/2 (30th)
5) Quinton Coples -- 19 (32nd)
6) Bruce Irvin -- 17 1/2 (40th)
7) Shea McClellin -- 17 (46th)
Irvin is getting a lot of play recently with some saying he is the best pass rusher in the draft. Maybe but that kid screams 3-4 more than anyone else listed and he gets destroyed in the run game as a 4-3 end.
Doesn't Watt play 5 tech for the Texans? I don't see Mercilus playing that position outside of the nickle. That's more like playing DT than end or ROLB. Watt had like 40 stops last year, he can play the run really, really well.
1) Whitney Mercilus, to me he looks like a ROLB or a situational 4-3 end. But really when I look at him I think Conner Barwin or Orakpo. I don't think JJ Watt who is a different kind of player and a natural 5 tech. Mercilus spent most of his season as a ROLB in a two point stance. People are talking about his pass rushing but he did that as a ROLB. Not a DE. It's a big change to play End in a 4-3. But people seem to ignore this. He does not play the run well. Watch him and you will see him get lost on running plays.
2) Melvin Ingram, I think he can play in either a 4-3 or 3-4. But 4-3 for the long run. He can move inside in the nickle. He's like a tweener between a Mike Bennett and Suggs. Maybe a lesser Trent Cole.
3) Nick Perry, you know the name Perry still carries some weight in Chicago. Perry is a strange prospect. A year and 20 pounds ago I was thinking ROLB and if he dropped the extra weight he could still do it, but he pumped up to 270. Perry started last season slow but finished the year really strong. Monte Kiffin loves this kid and Hot Rod went to check him out. He already has experiece in a Tampa 2 style front 4. Why nobody has talked about the fact that Kiffin, Lovie and Rod, he may fit the Bears defense more than any prospect. Huge Measurables which Lovie loves, big time program, played for Kiffin, and finished his career really strong. Lovie and Rod probably have more insight into this kid than any team. I think this is the guy the Bears are being quite about. I think this is the pick. Needs to work on staying low and continue to develop his technique.
4) Courtney Upshaw, not a fan, needs to cut weight and play in a 3-4. Well not a fan in a nfl 4-3 end I should say. Reminds me of Brooks Reed but is a little better pass rusher.
5) Quits Coples, admitted he only gave minimum effort last year. Thanks but no thanks.
6) Bruce Irvin, 3-4, 3-4, 3-4, sucks versus the run to small to play end in an nfl 4-3.
Creighton,
I agree on all of those guys you listed, and there are a few that I think might be better fits for what we do. Perry is probably the best fit, and likely near the top of Emery's 7 guys. Mercilus and Chandler Jones may have the best upside potential, but so far, Rod the Magnificent hasn't been able to develop anyone at end. Melton has improved significantly in the pass rush arena, but our system does not lend itself to consistent run defense from the front 4. They either beat their guy into the backfield and stuff the run for negative yards, or get upfield, watch the run come back inside of them, and hope one of the linebackers makes the play.
A guy later in the draft that I am intrigued by is Julian Miller from West Virginia. They hosed him by making him play DT at 255 lbs in passing situations, but he has the functional strength, good hand skills, and twitch movements to develop into something down the road. That doesn't help us this year, which is what we need, but I will be watching this kid for several years to see what shakes out of this potential.
Cam Johnson might be a good pick in the 2nd or 3rd round, assuming Lovie wants Casey Hayward in the 3rd from Vandy. Outside of Coples, I don't know that any of the top guys are capable of being an every down starter from Day 1, and Coples' effort is a huge question mark.
My guess is we end up with Perry, and we suffer through the growing pains for a couple of years while he gets used to hand placement, staying low, and finding a combo move repertoire to help him beat Matt Kalil for the next few years.
What I want is to shore up the OL and secondary, and fill in around those picks with DL and LB depth, and focus on the traits of every down DEs and DTs, and hope Rod can teach them to be better than they currently are, not coach them up to be great when they are marginal right now.
I am pumped for this draft, and curious to see whether Lovie still holds the gavel, or if Emery gets to put his stamp on the team in his first draft.
Let me add with Mercilus that yes he played end, 4-3 end as well, but also 3 and 5 tech depending on what front and package he was in. But his best pass rushing came from a two point stance and he did not drop into coverage that much from that position. That's why I compared him to Mark Anderson on an earlier post about him. Anderson plays in a hybrid, and played in a 4-3 tampa 2, was situational in both, played DE, 5 tech, 3 tech, and ROLB, depending on the package. Anderson was also a starter here but that did not workout well. So I wanted to add scheme versatile. Again he is a pass rusher, but I don't know about a starter, his hands are not inside the blocker very often and while he has some moves he seems like pure first step speed to me.
Sean who do you like? I know your a reporter and your job is giving the news. But I don't see any harm in you naming a few players you like for the Bears at 19 or maybe your thinking they trade up or down. Just wondering. Everyone is talking about who they think will get picked but not a lot people are saying hwo they like. Maybe just some players who caught your eye.
I I simply don't watch enough tape to feel comfortable with projecting players. That's why I respect guys like Greg Cosell, Mayock, etc... who pore over hours of it. Then, during football season, I only really have time for NFL games, and occasional huge college games. And, if I'm watching college, I don't focus too much on names. Know that's not the answer you're looking for but...
Nah man that's totally cool. The only right answer is an honest answer. I couldn't give you 4 rounds for the Bears this year if tried and feel comfortable about it. That's why I haven't mocked anything. Used to watch 6-7 college games a week, now I am lucky if I catch 2. I know most of the big names for the first 2-3 rounds of prospects. I have a good idea of team needs but not like in years past. I figure if Mayock isn't going to give me a job why am I watching all these games.
Just hoping for some good picks for the Navy and Blue. I hear Luck and Griffin are suppose to be pretty good. I wonder what positions they play?
I still love the mock drafts, I still have a pretty good idea of some of the players and I can read some of the postings and they either stole what they wrote, or just watched highlights of some of the prospects. Like Perry I saw him play plenty last year, only saw two games this year. So I was sure he was going to be a 3-4 ROLB from what I saw in 2010. Then he put on 20 pounds I didn't notice. Forgot Kiffin was USC. Then I saw a couple of games this week and I was like ooops, ummm he can play 4-3 end pretty damn good. Oh and that's right they started using a Tampa 2. I hammered him a couple of months ago. my bad. Still I had to look for him, and for Kalil, but Barkley, I didn't have to look for Barkley, that kids got fireworks shooting off around him.
Anyway big day today for the nfl, the now insanly long draft begins. I think that's why have been losing intrest, it's so over blown now and evey year evey player is hte greatest player ever. No change that, Todd McShay ruined it for me, him and then Kiper hyping up players for certain agents.
Oh well, you doing the doing the draft thing again this year? Or you going to cover it on Twitter? Don't forget you have the Golf Clap award to hand out to the first person to guess the Bears first round pick.
It's going to be tough this year, the Bears are in lock down mode, Emery is in super secret mode. The Bears have just elveated to DRAFCON 1 (draft readiness condition)"Threat Level Red Zone." They are now pretending their is no draft.
Yeah I don't know Julian Miller very well, but as for him moving inside into what I am guessing is a 3 tech in a small package on third down, that does not bother me. Lots of temas do that including the Bears, Giants, and Illini. Mercilus used to do that. I don't think he was playing the one tech. If they did move him inside to the 1 tech then they are crazy. WV uses a shifting front if I remember right. So the front 7 goes 4-3 or 3-4, much like the Illini. I do know that most of his sacks last year came in the Pitt game right? He is the kid who had 4, I think. Or was that Irvin?
Problem with the WV kids is most of them are Tweeners. As a late round situational guy I don't see a problem taking a shot at him in the 5th or 6th although he may move up. Bears are sitting in the middle of the draft which is like no mans land. A kid like Miller tends to get picked either at the bottom of the round before his projected round or at top of his projected round. I hate being stuck in the middle of a draft.
Cam Johnson looks like a tweener. I don't think he has a natural position. Hard to tell though Because Virginia switched from a 3-4 to a 4-3. and that makes it hard on a college kid. So guys like us don't really get a great feel for him because they are adjusting. He's a pretty good player though, I think the Bears won't touch him because of his measurables.
I am not a Hayward fan, I think I am just tired of Vandy guys on the Bears. Ummm I do like Trumaine Johnson though but not as a corner, I would like to see him at safety. FS to be exact. I want some bigger guys in the secondary to start countering some of these TE's and big recievers. He reminds me of Tillman except he is bigger.
Good news about Perry is that I think Peppers will be dealing with Kalil for the next couple of years. However I don't have Kalil as a Lock to the Vikings. I think it's more than likely he ends up their. But the Vikings want out of the three spot. Rams loaded up on future draft picks. They could trade up to the three a lot cheaper than than Washington traded up to the two. See Rams need a pass protector more than anything else. If they don't do the move they are crazy, Bradford won't last. I know Fisher is going to run the ball. But he is not going to win much if he gets his QB killed. He has next to nothing on offense. The only two moves I see for the Rams are trading up for Kalil or taking Trent Richardson. They could try and trade down with he Bengals, then draft Martin and Wright or Hill. i think the Bengals would love Richardson, or Claiborne. They could also be a trade partner for the Vikings. But the Vikings want out. So I think it could happen, but the odds are low. Or the Vikings just go with Claiborne.
It's going to be fun tonight.
By the way Sean if I was going to argue the whole Martin/Kalil thing on the greatness of Kalil, I would point this out. Kalil who I feel is an excellent prospect, is not getting the love you think he would from the Vikings and other teams. Vikings want to trade down and can't find a partner. The Vikings who are desperate for offensive line help, would rather take a Corner who is also a great prospect.
Now if I was the Vikings I would take Claiborne, then trade back into the late first round and take Martin. I think a certain team named the pats would love to have the Vikings 35th pick and next years second round pick from the Vikings. Vikings need a LT who can run block for Peterson and protect Ponder in the long run.
Just saying, I know you know the Vikings better than me and you probably have some friends who cover them. I would pass that move on to your friends, I know Speilman can get a little Millen like. So a Bear fan will help them out, plus it makes the draft more intresting for me. This is free info, I am not getting paid for this. It's my gift to the Queens. Lets be honest Claiborne is already in the right colors.
Vikings trade the third. Browns move up to secure Richarson. Vikings may move down again if they can, but Claiborne would go to the Bucs now that Richardson is gone. Thank you Vikings for making things a little more intresting.