Chicago Sun-Times

Where do Bears rank among best drafting teams?

| 5 Comments | No TrackBacks

Matt Maiocco of Comcast Sports-Bay Area completed an exhaustive study of the last five NFL drafts and ranks teams from 1-to-32 based on how well they did during that span.

It shouldn't be a surprise that the Packers and Saints --- the last two Super Bowl winners -- are Nos. 1 and 2. It's also no surprise that the Bills are 32nd.

Where do the Bears rank? Higher than you might think. Maiocco has them in the middle of the pack at No. 16, behind the Chargers and in front of the Titans. Here's the complete story.

No TrackBacks

TrackBack URL: http://blogs.suntimes.com/cgi-bin/mt-tb.cgi/39793

5 Comments

HA, bears suck

Neil your link is not posted.

http://www.csnbayarea.com/04/04/11/Maiocco-Five-year-study-of-NFL-drafts/landing_maiocco_v3.html?blockID=496960&feedID=5936

Would love to know exactly what the study was based around. Bears are listed with 7 starters and 21 players still on the roster from the last 5 drafts. Hester is listed as the best pick then comes Forte and Knox. The worst pick is listed as CHRIS WILLIAMS!!!!! Greg Olsen was not mentioned.

Guessing at the starters it would be, Hester, Knox, Forte, Olsen, Webb, Williams, and Manning(who is a FA). Funny thing is 6 of the starters are all on offense, and the 2 of them are offensive linemen on the worst offensive line in football. Hmmmm, great study, the rest of the offensive players are on the 30th ranked offense in football. Boy talk about showing off your drafting ability. Angelo has also managed to draft one starter on defense over that period. Wow, that really is some study.

You know what's real funny, the Seahawks ranked 25th. Gosh who ran the Seahawks during that period? Oh yeah Angelo's new number 2 Timmy Ruskell. That's just great. Seahawks would have been lower but last year they drafted Thomas and Okung bringing them up to 25th. Yeah, were saved.

Bears did manage to get ranked 3 spots ahead of detroit. Not that this ranking system means much half the teams on it have not had the same GM on them for 5 years.

HAYES HERE: We're working on getting the link posted. I'm not sure why it doesn't appear. The website folks are investigating.

No sweat Hayes just thought I would let you know in case it got missed, I know wierd things happen on blogs with links and posts didn't know if you had missed it. Fun article though, I liked reading some of the top ranked draft picks that teams had and how bad some of them are or how good.

I thought the Titans were the most intresting, they have some real good picks and some really, really bad picks. Makes me think a lot of these owners are way past their respective primes or in the case of the Skins the owner never had a prime and may want to take a que from their years of screw ups and stay out of the way when it comes to drafting and player personel. Jones, Davis, Snyder, are a few that come to mind.

For good or for bad I hope people take the article with a grain of salt, its more of a fun read rather than this team drafts better than this team. Or this GM is better than that one. Owners and injuries and many other things come into play. Most teams are probably where they should be but arguments can be made. Like Detroit, part of those 5 years are the Millen era(oh so bad), but recently not to bad. Seattle wityh Ruskell was real bad but last year they had a good draft after they fired him. Vikings probably should not be above the Steelers. Raiders belong in the bottom 5 easy. I thought the Broncos being below the Raiders was a hoot, but I get it, pre McNugget, they did a nice job of drafting guys, 2 years with McNugget and they are at the bottom of the league. Maybe Angelo sent his first round curse to Denver with the Cutler trade, Cause they have pretty much blown 5 first picks in two years. What I found intresting is they listed Cutler and Marshall as good picks, which they were, but they are not on the Broncos. Can you imagine that 06 draft, they got Cutler, Marshall and Dumervil that is a hall in a half 3 pro bowlers. I think Sundquist may have gotten screwed, hard to say when you don't know if it was him or Shanny running the draft.

Maiocco's article is all over the place. He changes the criteria by team and how he evaluates them, and it all boils down to the reputation of the GM or coach, not any results they get. Belichick hasn't hit on a lot of his picks, but because he drafts all of his guys in the second round, he's a genius? The Broncos get credit for Cutler, even though they traded him, and basically flubbed the 2 first rounders they got from the Bears, with one bad pick, and trading away the other for another bad pick.

I just don't get it. To me, the article on ESPN.com about grading drafts, referencing Bill Polian's method: http://espn.go.com/blog/afcsouth/post/_/id/22699/good-draft-hit-rates-lower-than-you-think, is a better reference for how to evaluate drafts. You look at position in the round, and then have a metric for how you do in all 6 rounds, not just busts and splash picks. He rates players on whether or not they are "winning players", where they either contribute winning plays to the team, or they don't.

Looking at Angelo and Ruskell, they miss an awful lot on drafting winning players. But also, when you look at the last 5 years, we have drafted in the later portion of the round by Polian's scale (top 12, and bottom 20 in the round are his groups). Seattle has done the same, as they have owned the NFC West for the last several years. So the chances of drafting elite players are reduced, but in many cases, both GMs falied to draft contributors. We should be ranked considerably lower, but we get credit for Hester.

We have managed to build a roster centered around special teams in the draft, because that's the only place where pure athleticism and desire can win out over football talent. That is all Jerry can evaluate. Hopefully the voices of Marinelli and Tice are sounding in the meeting rooms when looking at these guys, because they are actually conducting workouts with those players. We never get to coach the all-star teams, we never are the leaders in the Combine drills on the field, and we have been relying on the 150 yard view, where our scouts and Jerry (and the coaches) have been sitting in the stands watching, and trying to glean information from a distance. That's no way to get to know the players. They can all be coached in a 15 minute interview, and we rarely have top prospects in for a visit to Halas Hall. Marinelli and Tice are our only chance to get a real view of a player's potential, and this is their draft.


If we still manage to draft badly this year, it will be a strong indicator that we belong with the Bengals as a dysfunctional organization that has no chance to stay competitive. This is a team getting old at the key positions, and our stars are going to start slipping. The roster is completely lacking in developmental players that could step in and keep there from being a significant dropoff. We have failed to prepare this team for the long haul, so we keep trying to cobble together what we can to win now. Can't do that forever.

Joe I would not hold your breath on Rod giving you a great evaluation of talent, he has never had a good eye for talent. He may be able to coach some guys up but like Lovie when it come to talent he has no clue. It was Lovie and Rod who wanted Gains Adams(who was a major bust before coming to the Bears), both believed Anderson was a starter, Rod was the guy that wanted to trade Saun Rogers when he was in detroit because he didn't think he was very good and if you look at the roster he requested in Detroit, you can see he does not have much of an eye.

I would also questi9on Rod's ability to develop players, considering every line he has ever worked with is a veteran line made up mostly of FA's. Did he coach up the Bears line or did the Bears get Julius Peppers? Is the reason the defense improved this year Rod coaching up guys, or the fact that they got Peppers, Urlacher was healthy, Tillman was healthy, Chris Harris got the secondary in order and was a coach on the field, Jennings being a nice surprise. it seems to me the defense improved more because health and signings. Two guys Rod was suppose to get on track, Gilbert and Anderson both got cut and during camp and pre-season Lovie and Rod still had Anderson ahead of Izzy. Let's not forget tubby Harrison who does not seem to be very motivated by the great motivator Rod.

Now I know for a fact you have been a fan of Izzy for some time, like myself and we both have wondered for awhile why he was not given a shot to start at end? Well he got a shot and he played pretty good. Question is what took the Bears so long?

I think Tice is a better coach, but unlike Rod he is in a bad situation. Lovie and Angelo have no problem drafting D-Line and trading for D-Line and doing pretty much anything they can to help the line. Offense is different, they don't care as much about the O-Line, Tice is dealing with a crazy man and is in a system he has not used before and was pretty much handed a no talent line. (By the way Pompei recently stated the Bears don't have any real weakness or holes on the team, and that he didn't feel the line was bad last year, cause he is crazy). I think what Tice did was over hyped because he really didn't change the line much first half to second half. You can see this in both Packers games at the end of the season. The Pats game didn't show a great running team in the Bears. Eagles and Detroit both beatup on Cutler. But given the situation Tice was put in, a crazy man calling 7 step drops all the time, no talent to work with, a new blocking scheme, that sucks by the way, and you have to give the guy credit for some improvment by the line.

I think in both cases line coaches can look really good when given a lot of talent to work with, but that does not mean they always have a great eye for talent. Good scouting a real good GM are generally what you need to find talent. Angelo is still a pro player guy, his best guys are generally FA, and trades, his drafting is questionable at best. Without Peppers, Urlacher, Adams and Jennings I am pretty sure the defense sucks and not a single player would standout to Bears fans. I think we can both agree without Cutler the offense is a league wide joke. Cutler did a lot more than he is given credit for just by getting up after taking some real beatings all year long.

Leave a comment

Twitter updates

Categories

About this Entry

This page contains a single entry by Neil Hayes published on April 6, 2011 3:36 PM.

Bears could fill major needs in first three rounds was the previous entry in this blog.

Judge says she'll need a few weeks to make a ruling is the next entry in this blog.

Find recent content on the main index or look in the archives to find all content.