The post made here on Friday before the contract signing party commenced at Halas Hall generated quite a bit of buzz.
Football Scientist author KC Joyner made a case that Jay Cutler was too mistake prone and that ultimately that would limit his success with the Bears. The majority of responses were negative and the general consensus was figures lie and liars figure. We feel compelled to study all sides of an issue and another study by Joyner has been brought to our attention that perhaps will better explain his opinion that is shaped by statistics.
Back in mid-March when the Cutler trade winds were blowing, Joyner analyzed his performance vs. that of Brett Favre in New York. The Jets were rumored to be one of the teams pursuing Cutler and Joyner took their 2008 numbers and put them side-by-side in a blog post for the New York Times. Everyone knows Favre fizzled down the stretch, ultimately leading to his departure and the exits of others, including coach Eric Mangini. The results here might surprise you.
Joyner points out that both quarterbacks worked with solid receivers and also had quality pass-catching tight ends. He calls both quarterbacks "vertically inclined." His study measured the yards per attempt for each quarterback at different depth levels (how far the ball was thrown downfield). Here is how they matched up:
Short passes (0-9 yards) - Cutler 6.2, Favre 5.8
Medium passes (10-19 yards) - Cutler 8.8, Favre 9.5
Deep passes (20-29 yards) - Cutler 11.2, Favre 9.6
Bomb passes (30+ yards) - Cutler 11.9, Favre 9.1
Overall YPA - Cutler 7.3, Favre 6.5
Vertical passes (medium, deep and bomb combined totals) - Cutler 9.8, Favre 9.5