Chicago Sun-Times

What's in a number? Evaluating what the Bears can select at No. 49 overall

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If the Bears can find DeSean Jackson in the second round with the 49th pick of the draft, they'll be in a very good spot.

Jackson, who started 15 games as a rookie for the Philadelphia Eagles, was the 49th pick of last year's draft. He represents the upside of where the Bears are with their first pick this year.

As you can expect, the results at No. 49 are mixed. That is where the Bears found offensive tackle Troy Auzenne in 1992. He didn't pan out so well although he made 35 starts in a five-year career, the first four seasons with the Bears. No. 49 is where the Bears selected defensive tackle Chris Zorich in 1991. He made 49 career starts.

General manager Jerry Angelo said at the scouting combine that there would not be a perfect player where the Bears were choosing at No. 18 in the first round. That was before the Jay Cutler trade. There is considerable more guesswork that goes into waiting until No. 49. We went back over the last 20 years to look at the draft picks. Besides Auzenne and Zorich, the 49th pick produced former Bears assistant secondary coach Torrian Gray. He was chosen by the Minnesota Vikings in 1997.

Out of the 20 players, linebacker Randall Godfrey (1996, Dallas) made the most career starts with 151. Oakland center Barret Robbins (1995) had 105 career starts but missed his most important in Super Bowl XXXVII. Defensive end Kenny Mixon (1998, Miami) had 96 career starts. Defensive back Pat Terrell (1990, L.A. Rams) and fullback Roosevelt Potts (1993, Indianapolis) were the only others with more than 50 career starts. Terrell made 69 and Potts had 61. That means five of the last 20 players selected No. 49 overall stuck around long enough to start a little more than three full NFL seasons--48 games. Of course, the book is still open for Jackson, who really flourished and should go on to have a nice career. Some of the other recent picks in the slot, like New York Jets quarterback Kellen Clemens and Oakland guard Marcus Johnson, are still around.

But this can put in perspective what kind of player, or the range of player available, the Bears can expect to find awaiting them. Speaking of waiting. The draft does not begin until 3 p.m. this year. With 10 minutes per pick in the first round and seven minutes per pick in the second round, it could be 10 before the Bears are on the clock. That's not expected to happen. The change in time last year expedited the first round, which went in 3 hours, 30 minutes. Provided the pace is similar, the Bears could go on the clock some time between 7:30 and 8.

Here is a look at the No. 49 overall pick over the last 20 years:

Year Player Position Team Career starts
2008 DeSean Jackson WR Philadelphia 15
2007 Kenny Irons RB Cincinnati 0
2006 Kellen Clemens QB N.Y. Jets 8
2005 Marcus Johnson G Minnesota 18
2004 Keiwan Ratliff CB Cincinnati 12
2003 Eddie Moore LB Miami 3
2002 Levar Fisher LB Arizona 15
2001 LaMont Jordan RB N.Y. Jets 29
2000 Dwayne Goodrich DB Dallas 1
1999 Joe Montgomery RB N.Y. Giants 5
1998 Kenny Mixon DE Miami 96
1997 Torrian Gray FS Minnesota 4
1996 Randall Godfrey LB Dallas 151
1995 Barret Robbins C Oakland 105
1994 Toby Wright S L.A. Rams 44
1993 Roosevelt Potts RB Indianapolis 61
1992 Troy Auzenne OT Bears 35
1991 Chris Zorich DT Bears 49
1990 Pat Terrell DB L.A. Rams 69
1989 Jessie Small LB Philadelphia 8

We'll have Four Down Territory a little later this afternoon. Check back.

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6 Comments

I've been thinking about this draft and the #49 pick da Bears have, and I think there is a very good chance it is going to be a defensive lineman, most likely an edge rusher. Hear me out. I think they really believe in Marinelli and they'll want to give him a new toy to play with, and with Anderson and Ogunleye in contract years, it only makes sense to get a rookie in there. Plus, their suspect d-line had a domino effect on the rest of the defense, if they can fix it, they can have a top 10 defense again, but they need to get younger, or Anderson needs to return to his rookie form, and as much as I like him that's a big if.

I wouldn't even be surprised if it was a defensive tackle as Dvoracek can't stay healthy and Harris doesn't practice very often. Angelo has a better track record on the d-line too, and this draft needs to count because the last couple, meh...

I'm not saying they shouldn't draft a wide receiver, they should and will (if I were GM, I would), but all these people saying it's going to happen with that first pick, #49, well let's just say I won't be upset if/when it doesn't happen.

Love these two weeks heading into the draft. Pull out your crystal balls (but don't rub 'em too much, people will stare).

Now here's where it gets tricky. If anyone saw Jackson in the Dallas game, he very stupidly fumbled the ball in his vain attempt to celebrate a TD before he even crossed the goal line. But besides his clumsy ego, he's looked like a pretty decent WR throughout the seson.

So can JA properly balance a player's skills and attitude? Cuz' I wouldn't mind seeing the Bears get a DeSean Jackson with the 49th pick.

Forgive the seemingly unrelated post but I would like to ask a question stemming from an earlier thread and Protect the QB's insistence that Chicago is in a very rare situation where 3 dominant offensive line players are available in the draft and Chicago should get them by any means necessary (I hope I summed that up correctly) ...

Protect the QB:

You have been granted clairvoyance and are in charge of the Chicago Bears 2009 draft. We will use my recent mock (version 1.3 on my blog for anyone interested) and you KNOW where these 3 players will be drafted.

22 Smith
30 Mack
39 Robinson

Unlike draft day where EVERYTHING is fluid and deals have to be pulled off in mere minutes you have as long as you need. You now have to acquire 3 picks with the current Bears roster and all current and future draft picks at your disposal. Also - unlike real life - moving up in the draft will not affect any other teams picks so these 3 guys are LOCKED in at those 3 spots. You need to trade to get the 21st or higher, 29th or higher, and 38th or higher picks. How do you move up to secure these three players?

if guys like nicks and britt get pushed out of the first round, then the bears should definitely consider moving up in round 2 to secure them. if not, i think #49 could be a great spot to snag a top tier FS like delmas, moore, or johnson.

WR / FS should be the bears first two selections, it will be interesting to see if this transpires in a few weeks.

Bears just need to take the Best player available at a need with there first 2 picks. Thats all there is to it, beggers can't be choosers.

Coach thats an easy one you just gotta trade Cutler. Thats all. You can't really trade next years or future picks effectivly for this years picks because they do not hold the same value. For each year, drop a round. a first round pick in 2011 is worth a third round pick this year. Your best players are past ther prime or have injury and work ethic issues or have not been performing well. QB holds the highest Position value in a draft, followed by LT, CB, and DE. The lowest are Punters.

Current value on Bear players such as Harris, Urlacher, Goon and Vasher are all currently low do injuries and so on. Brown probably holds no more that 2nd round value and you really can't afford to loose him. Anderson has no value after the lst two years, Tillman is comming off an injury and has some value but again you can't afford to loose because you can't replace him with Alex Mack. The only guy of solid first round Value is Briggs, who could be traded for a first round pick. But that leaves you with a Huge hole to fill. So if your willing to part with Tillman and Briggs you could get a late first and a second or third for Peanut. But now your defense is pretty much a wreck.

To find the last pick you would have to use the offense, after last year Hester does not hold a lot of value currently, Chris Williams will not land you much with his back, and Olsen is a top 15 recieving TE and there are at least two guys better than him currently on the trade market in Gonzlas and Scheffler who are not even getting second round offers. You really do not want to trade Cutler, so your last option would be Forte.

So this is what you could do with Forte, Briggs and Tillman.

You trade Briggs to the Texans for the 15th overall, they are desperate for help at OLB and Lance fits the system.

You trade Forte to the Jets for the 17 overall.

And you trade Tillman to the Seahawks for the 37th.

All these trades fill major needs for all these teams and all the guys fit the system. But there are a couple of problems.

First you now need two starting CB's instead of one, you have no RB or running game anymore, and your best defensive player is gone on a defense that was getting shredded last year.

But you get 3 possible starters on the Oline. You know Cutler had a great Oline, he had great recievers and no running game and no defense. Now he would be on a Bears team with no defense, no running game and no recievers. Plus there is no guarantee that the line is even decent with what would be 5 guys who have never played together, and have a total of 1 NFL start between them. Doesn't really sound like a good idea to me. In fact if he was 8-8 with Broncos he would probably be 5-11 with Bears. A rookie Oline, no Running back, no defense and no recievers. Plus Angleo would have to hit on like 8 draft picks in the hopes of even fielding an NFL calibur team. There are much bigger needs on the Bears than Oline right now.

By the way Smith screams bust and Alex Mack is the only guy on that list worth anything. Anyone remember Robert Gallery, he was suppose to be the next Orlando Pace, he is now a LG and was a bust at both OT positions. Or how about Tony Mandarich, Kevin Allen, Bernard Williams, Stan Thomas, Andre Johnson, Trezelle Jenkins, Yep no such thing as a first round OT bust. Uggggg the cup of stupidity is running over.

If you can't stop anyone on defense and you have no Weapons for Cutler on offense it will not matter who is on the oline.

The Olines job is to protect the QB right? Well if this Oline does it's job then thats all there is to it. It's really nice to build an Oline, and when you have a GM who knows how to draft Oline talent thats even better. But when your team is full of holes up and down and your GM has proven time and again that he has no clue about finding Oline talent, then you just gotta take what you can get and hope for the best until they find a GM who can draft.

Is the current Oline perfect? No. Will it do the Job? Maybe. But you can say that about every line if football, an injury here or there and bam your line is done.

Will Smith be a bust? You better believe it. The higher he goes the worse he is gonna get. The more money he get the lazier he will be.

Creighton,

You mean to tell me Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball? -er I mean there's a chance Andrea Smith could be a bust? And that trading our best offensive player, our best defensive player, and our only starting CB for 3 rookies is a bad idea? What about "building the dynasty"? You just don't get it DO YOU!?!?

// Sarcasm off.

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This page contains a single entry by Brad Biggs published on April 13, 2009 2:18 PM.

Scouts arriving Wednesday for final draft preparations was the previous entry in this blog.

Number swap: Pace lands No. 76 is the next entry in this blog.

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