Chicago Sun-Times

Draft value chart has WR Nicks slipping to middle of 2nd round

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Nolan Nawrocki over at Pro Football Weekly, the guy who puts together one of the finest draft guides there is, has a terrific draft value chart that is worth looking at.

It provides a good glimpse at where some of the players the Bears have been scouting the last few weeks are forecasted to go, as well as some other information. Nawrocki updated it today and it reflects some of the sentiment around the league that North Carolina wide receiver Hakeem Nicks could be falling. One source we spoke to Monday said he didn't expect Nicks to be on the board when the Bears select at No. 49 in the second round, but he wouldn't rule it out after concerns about Nicks multiplied when he showed up out of shape on his pro day.

Nawrocki's chart has three levels for each round--A, B and C. A is for players in the top-third of the round, B is for players in the middle of the round and C is for players in the bottom third of the round. He has Nicks at 2B with the arrow pointing down. The Bears' pick is the 17th of the round, so that indicates Nawrocki believes he will be coming off the board right around where the Bears are at.

The color coding Nawrocki uses also indicates there are concerns about Nicks' character and intelligence. One player who has benefited here is Georgia wide receiver Mohamed Massaquoi, who is above Nicks in 2B and has an arrow pointing up. Massaquoi is the seventh receiver on the board and above him in 2A Kenny Britt has an arrow pointing down with character being a concern.

If the Bears are targeting Ohio State's Brian Robiskie, he could be off the board. Nawrocki has him climbing into the end of the first round with a 1C grade just behind a sliding Percy Harvin of Florida. Some out there believe the concerns held for Harvin, Britt and Nicks are more fiction than fact, that it's a smokescreen at this point with teams in the second round hoping to have a shot at them if they fall. That's certainly possible but Nawrocki's work has been solid every spring and this is updated material right here. He also lists Oklahoma wide receiver Juaquin Iglesias, who the Bears worked out last week in Killeen, Texas, at 3C with the arrow pointing up. That would indicate Iglesias could be off the board when the Bears choose again at No. 99, the second to last pick of the third round.

Virginia's Kevin Ogletree, who the Sun-Times first linked to the Bears, is at 4A. That would seemingly make him another possibility at No. 99 if general manager Jerry Angelo opts to go in a different direction than wide receiver in the second round.

At safety, Rashad Johnson is at 2C with the arrow pointing up and Missouri's William Moore is at 2B with medical and intelligence concerns. Texas Tech's Darcel McBath, who the Bears are known to like, is at 4A with the arrow going up. Nawrocki lists Troy's Sherrod Martin at 3A as a cornerback. The Bears worked him out already and could use him as a safety.

Give his chart a look. There's a lot of interesting information there to digest. We will be back a little later on with today's edition of Four Down Territory.

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The weirdest thing that I see in this whole process is the "eye of the beholder" effect opf the different scouting services, and so-called experts like Kiper. You look at 10 different services, you get 10 different rankings. After basically the top guy at each position, you start to see variability in the rankings.

Hopefully, Nawrocki is close in his projection, because it would be awfully nice to get a shot at Nicks in the second round at 49, but I think we will need to get ahead of Miami and the Giants at 44 and 45 to make sure.

The safeties are going to be another matter entirely. I think if we do not get Delmas or Johnson, who both are a little slighter than I like in a free safety, we should aim for someone in the 4th round, like perhaps Clemons or Bruton.

Did anyone hear this? or is it just a rumor?

One of the Chicago sports-talk radio stations reported that new Bears QB Jay Cutler took it upon himself to reach out to recently released Giants WR Plaxico Burress about his possible interest in playing in the Windy City. There was no mention, however, whether Cutler made the inquiry with the blessings of the Bears’ front office.

I def. do NOT want to place words in Cutlers mouth but wondered if anyone heard it?

This is all part of the fun, but I wish these draft guides would wear badges or something.

On one side of the room I'd put the ones who are trying to guess where a player will actually be drafted. These guys are essentially filling out a bracket based on rumor and perceived team interest. I pretty much ignore these "gurus"

On the other side of the room I'd put the ones who are evaluating the players on where they SHOULD be drafted. In other words, how good are they and what are the chances they can actually play pro football? That side of the room is where I'd be spending my time.

I'm aware of Nick's poor Wunderlic score ... but what are his perceived charactor issues? Also, why no injury flag on Brandon Tate? He's coming of a torn ACL and MCL last season.

I've purchased multiple draft guides over the last 25 years. They cover the entire waterfront - Kiper, Drugstore List, OurLads, Pro Football Weekly, Hughes, and many more... I stopped buying Kiper years ago - no real insight from that source. Over time I became convinced he is a talking head reciting what he hears... I find PRW and Our Lads do the best job of breaking down the players strenghts and weaknesses and slotting them based on how they evaluate their potential in the NFL... My impression is the evaluations from those 2 sources tend to track closest to actually perfromance in the NFL (though not necessarily where a player is drafted since some teams fall in love with a player and ignore the tape and interviews).

Where is BYU's Austin Collie in all the draft preview coverage? The Cougars' WR is a high character, physically and intellectually strong individual coming off a very good career at BYU. Am I missing something, because the highest I've seen him rated is 24th (WR)? I think he can be a very productive pro.

we need a major mauler road grader at guard and move garza out. take the road grader in round 2 and field the most powerful line they have ever had.

we have receivers. we'll get another one or 2 in July. get a road grader. then safety, then d line, then whoever is best.

we need a road grader at guard in round 2 and move garza out.
field a domiant line more so than ever before and everything else will fall into place.

In the end, the draft is just one big crapshoot. Right now most of these prospects are being nitpicked so bad, its hard to know what to believe. If you notice a lot of scouting reports, most draft guru's have a negative section, and a positive section on each player in their scouting reports. This is sat up so by the end of the season, if a player pans out, the guru can say, "I told you the prospect would pan out" and then point out what he said in his positive section on the players scouting report. Same if a player is a bust, the guru can point to the negative section on his scouting report that he wrote. In the end, nobody really knows for sure.

As far as Nicks, the guy produced in college, and for the last two seasons, it isn't like he's a one year wonder. I realize the weight gain is a concern. But a lot of people forget he tweaked his hamstring at the combine and had to rest it, its hard to workout when your resting your hamstring, this is probably why he gained weight. If he does slip, I'd take him. I hope Brian Robiskie slips to #49, I like him the most. I'd take him or Nicks. I also like Georgia's Mohamed Massaquoi, if Nicks and Robiskie are both gone, he'd be my third option at #49 GO BEARS!!

Joe I actually have been saying for a month now that Nicks would drop and I still have Britt in the second round, but I think NY will grab him. It's not just Nicks Wonderlic test, he does not have great speed, he is considered a diva and there are questions about his work ethic, which seemed to be proven true when he gained that weight. I also have been saying for a awhile that not a lot of WR's will go in the first round because you don't get great value with those picks which we saw happen last year. I have no more than 4 recievers going in round 1. Matt McGuire and Walter at Walter football are usually right on with there player assesments and have been saying the same things about Britt, Nicks and Harvin sense the off season began. They also tend to be really good on what trades will happen and what positions teams will draft with there picks. Mike Mayock tends to know talent but he doesn't release a decent Mock until right before the draft, same for Kiper. Ignore the big boards, there is a ton of bias in those. Kiper actually used to be better when he just picked guys he liked, now he tries to pick guys that the teams like instead.

Just remember anyone can drop, Randy Moss is one of the greatest WR to ever play the game and he fell to number 21 in the 98 draft even though a ton of teams liked him and when the Vikings drafted him they were all like "that to high for Moss, he is such a risk." Kevin Dyson was chosen before him as the first WR. What a joke. To many fans put these organizations on high horses, never underestimate how stupid these teams can be. The Bears chose Enis with the 5th overall that year over Moss who was a major need and Fred Taylor. Both of whom where rated higher than Enis. You watch this draft you will be sitting there going "OMG why did they take that guy?" with several teams.

Randy Brad mentioned that when it first happened and i heard Cutler talk about it on the radio. It happened at the same time Pace reached out to Holt. Niether are a big deal, Lovie spoke about it but all he said was they look at every free agent in the pool. Thats it. I myslef think they are waiting like alot of teams to find out if Plaxico will go to Jail and what Goodell will do. Thats why no one is going after him.

Good point MSBears, this time of the year everyone tries to stay relevant, for most draft prognosticators this is money time, for us the fan it gives us information to use in our arguements on who our favorite team should pick. Keeps us involved, most of these guys are like papprazzi! Alawys trying to come up with something the competition does'nt have or making something outragious up to get our attention.....Go BEARS

An association of men who will not quarrel with one another is a thing which has never yet existed, from the greatest confederacy of nations down to a town meeting.

Thomas Jefferson

I have copied one of the NFL draft pundits lists of top draft prospects from who they say would be available at #39 to #50. I realize that the list of rankings from these draft pundits all vary considerably but it would be interesting to see if this were to be the list and any of these players could drop to #49 who would you pick and why? Interesting considerations.

Here is the list.

39. William Moore S Missouri
40. Duke Robinson OG Oklahoma
41. Darius Butler CB Connecticut
42. Connor Barwin OLB Cincinnati
43. Evander Hood DT Missouri
44. William Beatty OT Connecticut
45. D.J. Moore CB Vanderbilt
46. Rashad Johnson S Alabama
47. Michael Johnson DE Georgia Tech
48. Sean Smith S Utah
49. Shawn Nelson TE Southern Miss
50. Brian Robiskie WR Ohio St.

I would think long and hard as to whom to pick but if Duke Robinson fell to #49, he would be hard to pass up given that he would solidify the line and protect The Cutler, replace Garza and get a road grader as was said earlier. I also think that the Bears can still get good WR value in later rounds 3-5 instead of having to go WR at #49.

Michael Johnson, the Bears need D end pick because at least one DE goon could go Free agency next year, could he really fall to #49?

How about Sean Smith prototypical size and speed to play safety and plays corner He might my pick as well, he might last longer than the under sized Free Safety's because of size, speed package.

How about Evander Hood at DT, Robiskie of course etc.

Thanks Creighton

I agree with getting a road grader in R2. you will not in all likelihood get a great reciever in R2. You most certainly won't get a guy who will step in at the #1 wideout. With the additions on the O line and Cutler this is a year you go for it. The Bears D is going to come out much better with Marinelli coaching the D line and the unit being able to play more aggressive with an offense that can score and maintain possession as needed. Forte is going to have amonster year and Cutler is the perfect QB for the Bears's power run game and play action deep strategy. The bEras have depth now on the O line, in the second round they can get a great guard. I like the kid from Wisconsin.

Creighton, the reason Nicks put on weight was because he was hurt and couldn't work out. He has since gotten healthy and is back at his playing weight of 212.

Tony Nicks worked out at the Combine and his Pro Day. What injury did he have that caused him to gain that weight. Was it the gain the weight injury? The only way you gain weight is by eating to much. End of story. There are a lot of skinny guys out there that don't workout at all.

I workout 5 days a week, I have had multiple injuries, and I often loose weight when I don't workout. In fact we often see NFL players get smaller once they leave the NFL. Well unless were talking the fridge.

Nicks gained 14 pounds in less than a month and said it was cause he hurt his leg at the Combine. 14 pounds??? Thats not easy to do you gotta eat like pig to put on 14 pounds in a month. It's also not like he didn't know his pro day was around the corner. Have a salad and lay off the Pizza. Go on a 60/20/20 diet. Gaining weight does not help Hamstring injuries. He just got lazy which is one of the knocks on him. He was able to do both shuttle drills at his pro day so I question this so called injury.

Here are the facts he gained 14 pounds was able to run the shuttle drills at his Pro day but refused to run the 40. He gained the weight by eating to much. He is an athlete he knows that when he can't workout he has to cut back on the caloric intake. He didn't do that even though he knew one of the biggest days of his life was around the corner. He ate to much got fat and refused to run the 40. Sounds like he was being lazy to me. I hope he drops to pick number 99, that will teach him a leason.


Util then I will refer to Nicks as Fatty.

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This page contains a single entry by Brad Biggs published on April 14, 2009 1:38 PM.

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