Chicago Sun-Times

A mystery man works to solve the mystery of compensatory draft picks

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We did not come across this information on our own, so we need to send a thanks out to Mike Sando and Kevin Seifert of ESPN.com, but we need to pass it along.

We're less than two weeks away from compensatory draft picks being awarded at the annual NFL owners meeting, and there's a blogger out there who has a strong track record of predicting this stuff. The formula the NFL Management Council uses to dispense these draft picks is secret. No one knows what goes into it, but it's believed to be a combination of the value of a players' contract and playing time, chiefly. The league weights net gains and losses of unrestricted free agents and a total of 32 picks are distributed.

Mysterious Adam has a knack for coming very close to nailing it--he's averaged 23.9 correct out of 32 picks over nine drafts. We don't know how much time goes into such a project--we don't want to to know--but it's impressive work. Check it out because it's full of good information.

Let's get right to it, what does Mysterious Adam project for the Bears? They lost wide receiver Bernard Berrian, tight end John Gilmore and special teamer Brendon Ayanbadejo and had no gains that would count against them.

As Adam breaks it down, the Bears will receive a fourth-round pick for Berrian and two seventh rounders for Gilmore and Ayanbadejo. Now, he points out that the Berrian pick could be a third rounder, that he's on the fence more or less. The league awarded four third-round picks last season and Adam forecasts only three third rounders will be handed out this year. If he's accurate and it's a fourth-round pick, you're looking at a pick somewhere around No. 130 in the draft. Essentially, it's a high fifth-round pick. But this beats what the Bears received last year--three seventh-round picks.

Mysterious Adam is a heavy-duty poster on the message boards over at www.kffl.com. That's where he's also shared his information, so we reached out to our friends there to see if they could share some insight into the man, you know, does he actually work for an NFL club?

"He is a very elusive man,'' said KFFL big hitter Cory Bonini. "He's one of the forum guys that has been around for years and he posts a lot on other message boards. I couldn't tell you his real name, and I couldn't give you an e-mail address. I've tried to contact him numerous times to see if we could make his information a featured article, give him credit, everything, on the site. He won't even respond to me. As far as I understand it, he's an everyday guy who spends a lot of time doing this. If you want, I can add you to the long list of people that would like to contact him.''

That's OK. But we appreciate being able to pass the information along. Thanks, Adam, wherever you are. We'll see how you do this year.

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22 Comments

The mysterious Adam I think is on the wrong side of the fence for Berrian. I agree on the Ayanbadejo and Gilmore picks, but the deal Berrian got was a blockbuster, and if it doesn't get a third out of the league, I would cry foul if I were the Bears....

Hey this is serious!!! Ol' Adam may be on the fence, but it matters a lot which side it comes down on.

The difference between a 3 and a 4 is not a fence, it's more like a canyon. How many theoretical spots would a 3 move the Bears up in the first round versus a 4?

I know that the Pro Bowl and playoff qualification have an impact on the process; since Brendan A. made the probowl and the Ravens made the playoffs I think that a 6th rounder for him is more likely.

Joe, Joe, Joe
Cmon man!
lol
and you Brad! I would expect better. We ALL know it's ALL about the Bears!
lol

cmon dudes! The man said a 4, he is the best at this, so figure a 4.....
Dang, Bears fans would argue the grass is blue! (AND NAVY BLUE AT THAT!)
lolol

24 out of 32 over 9 drafts is pretty fkin good, So I gotta figure a 4, (and a low 4?) sounds like we gettin robbed but hey as Brad said it's better than a 7 huh? Look at our 7 from last year and where those drafts are. So I'll take a 4.
But we had a proven fast WR, and we gave him up for a 4? and our 3 WR still has not even played yet?

He's probably got OCD and is a recluse, which is probably why he really knows his stuff. Blogging is a way for him to communicate to the outside world. Either that or the Commish is having fun with the fans. But I doubt that.

I bet Adam is wrong on this though, well not wrong cause he basically said there is a good shot it is a third rd pick. if he says he is on the fence then this will probably be one of the 4 picks he usually misses by one round. That has been his average the last 3 years, he will miss 4 picks by one round either way up or down. Those are usually the picks he says he is not sure of.

I'll tell you why I think it will be a third and not a 4th it's close enough to go either way, and by the way Adam is not the only one who said that, I said that over a month ago myself. Just don't ask me to make the other picks, I only do work the Bears. Anyway the fact the NFL loves the Bears, they are the second biggest market, not 3rd by the way as some people think, you can't count NY twice, it's one market. The Bears tend to get easy schedualing and alot of Prime Time games, even when there not very good. The Bears need a lot of help and I am sure the NFL knows this, which is why I suspect it will be a third.

By the way there is a rumor that Mysterious Adam is actually Batman. Brad if you leave him a message and ask him if he is Bruce Wayne he may respond. Just a hunch.

This is pretty funny when you think about it. Berrian was a mid-third round pick. He had a lot of "upside" for that spot in the draft. He has turned out to be a pretty good (not great, but certainly good) speed receiver who can stretch the field at times (e.g. when he had that "longest play from scrimmage" catch against the 2008 Bears). Of course, the Bears' ownership didn't see fit to pay him at the actual NFL rate for such a player, so they let him go. If he had been re-signed it's likely he wouldn't have had such a great season with Orton at QB anyway, as Kyle's deep game was not well-developed in 2008 (there are those of us who believe Orton will eventually come around, and of course those like NBS who think he's the second coming of Steve Stenstrom or Fuller). As a result of the team's legendary "thriftiness," the Bears will likely end up with either a very low third or fourth round compensatory pick. So the net effect is that the Bears ended up...ready for it?...trading down for a cheaper pick! It's amusing how Jerry Angelo is capable of doing that even when he doesn't intend it.

Any bets that it is Adam Schefter? All kidding aside, I think a 3rd rounder is reasonable to expect on the basis of the contract value, games started and playing time that Berrian received last season. He even had good numbers for a stretch there despite the poor quarterbacking the Vikings had for most of the season.

If it ends up being a 3rd rounder as compensation, I would love to see Jerry Angelo make a move that is so opposite of his nature: To use his actual 2nd or 3rd pick to move back up into the last third of 1st round to pick up an OL or WR. Similar to the move that the Panthers made to select Jeff Otah last season.

That was a smart move on the Panthers part.

BTW...I'm not the mysterious Adam being written about.

Randy: "Dang, Bears fans would argue the grass is blue! (AND NAVY BLUE AT THAT!)"

It's not?

Great digging Brad as always, but yes I am disappointed in your rebuke of Joe ... gives me nothing to make fun of him about :-)

I hope he's off and we get the 3rd-rounder but we'll take a 4th-rounder as well.

MSBearFan: "The difference between a 3 and a 4 is not a fence, it's more like a canyon. How many theoretical spots would a 3 move the Bears up in the first round versus a 4?"

None. Compensatory picks cannot be traded. But if it could be traded the pick would be worth (roughly) about a 60 point difference which is (roughly again) the equivalent of one spot in the first round for Chicago #18.

Thoroughly Disgusted: "Of course, the Bears' ownership didn't see fit to pay him at the actual NFL rate for such a player, so they let him go."

I would be COMPLETELY DISGUSTED if I didn't understand NFL compensation ... like you. Berrian, a non-pro-bowl receiver whose never had a 1000-yard season got paid like a top-dollar, blue chip prospect. If Chicago had paid out that much money for an above-average WR then EVERYONE would have been calling for JA's head and rightly so.

If the formula is chiefly based on the value of the players' contract and playing time, Chicago should get a third rounder I would think. Berrian got a fat contract, and appeared in all 16 games. But I think there's more to it than contract value and playing time. You would think the players production is a big part of the equation when figuring compensatory picks out also. Berrian only caught 48 balls this season, which is good for a runningback. His 20.1 yard avg is awesome, and he did come close to a 1000yds, 964 to be exact. But there are #2 receivers that put up the same kind of numbers that Berrian did, and the money Berrian is making, he's a number one, or at least the Vikes thought he was. Also, Berrian's 7 touchdown receptions is pretty pedestrian for a guy making the kind of money he got. You expect a lot more from a guy making top 5 pay at his position. I think when it's all said and done, we'll probably be looking at a 4th rounder. I think in the end, the money Berrian got, on top of the weak production, 48 catches [there were games Berrian didn't even have a single catch] with only 7tds, we're probably looking at a 4th rounder, so I agree with Mysterious Adam. Now, if Berrian would have come out and hit over a 1000yds, and had more than 60 receptions with double digit td's, we'd probably be looking at a third rounder, we'll see at the end of the month. Im hoping for a third rounder, but I doubt it, oh well a 4th is better than a 7th GO BEARS!!

Brad,
Just to clarify, I did use the words "I think" when questioning Adam's accuracy. The cry foul was more of an over-dramatized version of disappointment, so I'll take the ribbing for that.

But if the deal Berrian got out of the Vikes and the contributions he made do not equal a third, and Justin Smith's play does?? I would certainly call that a flawed system that is in need of review...

I agree with Samuel and Faneca, but Smith, Turner, and Berrian are in the wrong spots. I would call Smith a 4th, and Turner and Berrian both thirds..

I guess we'll see the actual picks in a couple of weeks.

Yes, Berrian was not worth that much, but this is the NFL and if you don't pay em, someone else will. The problem is the Bears paid the wrong players last year, geez those duds better do it this year or that will be really bad, the contracts for some of our FA last year and then the year they had? I would rather of signed Berrian and let a couple of em go, (maybe)

Think about it, Berrian got T.O. $$$ w/o the T.O. numbers
No matter what anyone thinks of T.O. The man can produce the numbers, I mean look at his rank in all time NFL WR, and Berrian ranks where on that list?

But does anyone doubt we would have had alot better Offense with Berrian stretching the field for Forte, so in that respect he might just have been worth the money as we are still searching for a replacement. Sometimes worth can be counted in many different ways. Who among us wasn't yelling for a WR all last year and this Free Agency period? Berrian is young and an investment, and we are still looking for his replacement.

I don't really think it will matter what kind of compensatory pick we get, JA will just waste it on some no name from Nowhere U. And Creighton, I think there is a poser posting as you on the Trib web sight under an article called "Chicago Bears counting on coaching up Josh Bullocks". I hope they're a poser cause these comments are way below you.

Da Coach what do you mean the grass isn't blue? Have you not heard of the Blue Grass state? Shame on you.

Really now, the Bears never seem to do well in these situations. Berrian signed a mammoth contract last year, and I think started all his games for the Vikings, and the Bears seem likely to get a number 4, Ayanbadejo was a pro bowler who left for a bigger contract, and he is worth a 7th? ... still, if anything, I am afraid the mysterious gentleman might be optimistic. I have never had the feeling the league office really treated the Bears as well as some of the other clubs, like Dallas, for instance. Can you imagine the earful the Bears would get from the league if they had that many questionable citizens on the team? My guess is a 4 and only one 7th - at best, but who knows?

Randy, I thought the Bears did a good job of replacing Bernard Berrian with Devin Hester last season, I'll give you a couple reasons why I think this. First, If you compare the two, they both had about the same amount of receptions, Berrian 48, Hester 51, so there wasn't really a drop-off there. Now, Berrian did have a better yard per avg, but than again, he should have, Berrian has played receiver his entire time at Fresno.st, and for 5 seasons in the NFL, Hester has only played receiver for one full season. The fact Hester came in this season and almost matched Berrians productions while only playing receiver for 1 full season compared to how long Berrian has played, Hester probably has more upside than Berrian. Secondly, both Hester and Berrian are deep threats, Chicago has Hester now, there's no need for another deep threat. What Chicago needs is a big possession type to compliment their deep threat Hester. A dream would be to land a big play receiver that can stretch the field, and has great hands, maybe on draft day? GO BEARS!!

I like Hester alot at WR unlike some of the fans, I really feel he can be our No. 1 WR, I do feel that Berrian would have helped us alot last year though and in the years to come, I feel Devin can do that across the middle catch better than Berrian and they would compliment each other in that respect and there are quite a few times you want a couple WR going post/TD stretch.
But I have to agree the Bears want Hester at that position and I can not argue that as I like Hester's potential. But with Hester and Orton practicing this off season I am excited to see what they do as well this year.
and you have to admit that we had a better QB last year (yes thats a stick to nbs)

oh and Creighton, they just think its blue cause they are cryin all the time all over their pretty grass when Indiana beats Kentucky.
(Hope my KY relatives are not logged in)

Randy your missing a copuple of things. First the Vikings are not a passing team, the Bears are. There recivers have fewer passing plays to work with than the Bears. The Bears had 528 attempts passing the Ball, to the Vikings 452. You also have to consider Orton vs. Jackson and Frerotte, even I would rather have Orton than those two. You also need to throw Bobby Wade in there he had 53 receptions last year and 645 yards, his numbers are almost identical to Hester. Berrian averaged 20.1 yards a catch dude, thats really really good, Hester averaged 13. Berrian had 7 TD'S, while Hester had 3, thats says it all right there. He had more than double his TD's. Berrian also had a Punt Return for a TD, Hester had 0. As for this being the first time Hester played reciever. Think again. They tried him at Reciever and Corner in college and he couldn't handel it, in 2007 he actually had a lot of time at reciever in fact he had as much time there as a lot of Rookies do. 2008 was his second year in the NFL playing the position, not his first. Giver Berrian a better QB and a better system and he easily gets you a thousand yards.

Haha, (unusually) the comments are entertaining... Let's not forget the Kentucky bluegrass in Soldier Field, as memorialized in one of my all-time favorite radio calls by Jeff Joniak:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jKQ1F1Qx4vo   [22-38 seconds in]

Brad, thanks for the link. AdamJT13's analysis is well done (and should improve even more with feedback after this year's awards -- alas that may not matter if the whole system changes in 2010).

I agree Creighton that give Berrian a better QB, actually I would think Berrian is perfect for McNabb, What could have been? If....
I feel what he was saying was that the Bears did not need 2 WR doing the same thing, which I feel we would have been stronger with regardless.
I do feel Hester will be alright, watch Hester this year, he is the type of man that wants to be the best at what he does, so watch him this year at WR cause that is what he does now. And with a year of practice with Orton they will be a better combo. (of course I said the same thing about
I am greedy and of course I wanted them both.

lololol
I stand corrected Michael;
The frkn grass is blue

(of course I said the same thing about Dusty)fin

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This page contains a single entry by Brad Biggs published on March 13, 2009 2:35 PM.

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