We're less than two weeks away from compensatory draft picks being awarded at the annual NFL owners meeting, and there's a blogger out there who has a strong track record of predicting this stuff. The formula the NFL Management Council uses to dispense these draft picks is secret. No one knows what goes into it, but it's believed to be a combination of the value of a players' contract and playing time, chiefly. The league weights net gains and losses of unrestricted free agents and a total of 32 picks are distributed.
Mysterious Adam has a knack for coming very close to nailing it--he's averaged 23.9 correct out of 32 picks over nine drafts. We don't know how much time goes into such a project--we don't want to to know--but it's impressive work. Check it out because it's full of good information.
Let's get right to it, what does Mysterious Adam project for the Bears? They lost wide receiver Bernard Berrian, tight end John Gilmore and special teamer Brendon Ayanbadejo and had no gains that would count against them.
As Adam breaks it down, the Bears will receive a fourth-round pick for Berrian and two seventh rounders for Gilmore and Ayanbadejo. Now, he points out that the Berrian pick could be a third rounder, that he's on the fence more or less. The league awarded four third-round picks last season and Adam forecasts only three third rounders will be handed out this year. If he's accurate and it's a fourth-round pick, you're looking at a pick somewhere around No. 130 in the draft. Essentially, it's a high fifth-round pick. But this beats what the Bears received last year--three seventh-round picks.
Mysterious Adam is a heavy-duty poster on the message boards over at www.kffl.com. That's where he's also shared his information, so we reached out to our friends there to see if they could share some insight into the man, you know, does he actually work for an NFL club?
"He is a very elusive man,'' said KFFL big hitter Cory Bonini. "He's one of the forum guys that has been around for years and he posts a lot on other message boards. I couldn't tell you his real name, and I couldn't give you an e-mail address. I've tried to contact him numerous times to see if we could make his information a featured article, give him credit, everything, on the site. He won't even respond to me. As far as I understand it, he's an everyday guy who spends a lot of time doing this. If you want, I can add you to the long list of people that would like to contact him.''
That's OK. But we appreciate being able to pass the information along. Thanks, Adam, wherever you are. We'll see how you do this year.