Chicago Sun-Times

With the ?? pick in the 2009 draft, the Chicago Bears select ...

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If you thought the 2008 quarterback class was lacking ... do like the Cubs and wait ’til next year.

The 2009 crop of passers could be even less inspiring, hardly the kind of news a franchise in search of a franchise quarterback for decades needs to hear. Suffice to say no one is going to be drawing comparisons to 1983. Or 1999 for that matter. Remember five passers were taken in the first round that year and the 2009 draft will mark the 10-year anniversary of the Bears’ selection of Cade McNown. Only Donovan McNabb and Daunte Culpepper had success from that group.

General manager Jerry Angelo cited, among other reasons, the poor talent available this year as one of the reasons the Bears elected not to draft one this year.

It’s awful early to be breaking down quarterbacks for next year ... we’ve got about 51 1/2 weeks until the excitement begins all over again, but let’s take a look ahead. Just keep in mind projections at this point mean nothing. Kentucky’s Andre Woodson and Hawaii’s Colt Brennan were not being discussed as sixth-round draft picks last April.

Georgia’s Matt Stafford is getting pretty good reviews, drawing comparisons in some corners to Carson Palmer. Stafford is entering his third season as a starter but will only be a junior. So there’s no guarantee he’ll leave school early.

Florida’s Tim Tebow is another underclassman who’s intriguing, and in fact ESPN’s Todd McShay has Tebow going No. 7 overall to the Bears in the 2009 draft. You know what that says about this coming season, right?

Arizona State’s Rudy Carpenter, Purdue’s Curtis Painter and Clemson’s Cullen Harper are a trio of seniors who will be available. None have much wow factor. Not now anyway. Remember Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco was hoping to be a mid-round pick at this point a year ago. Louisville’s Hunter Cantwell will have one season to prove he is worthy of a high pick after waiting behind Brian Brohm. Oklahoma’s Sam Bradford will be draft eligible also if he wants to leave school early.

The Bears won 24 games between 2005 and 2006 with Kyle Orton and Rex Grossman starting. Maybe one of them will step forward and drafting a passer will be a moot point. Until that happens, the wait for one to develop continues.

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What do our prospects look like on the free-agent front for QB's in 2009? Seems like that might be the best option for immediate success...you know, since we're not "rebuilding".

The draft order was set based on their initial power rankings for the 2008 season. based on how poorly the Bears played last season, they were ranked 26th in the league by McShay's assessment. I can't imagine us being that high in the draft, but a few key injuries, like Urlacher, Tommie Harris, and Olin could set our team back so far that we could be in the hunt for the #1 overall pick.

I really hope we do not go after Tebow. He will be a jack of all trades in the NFL, when what we need is a QB. If we take for granted that Angelo is not sold on Orton, Grossman, Hanie, and Hill, we will be in the market for one early in next year's draft. I like what I have seen out of Stafford, and Bradford could be an intriguing prospect based on his early performance. If we do not make strides on offense this year, Lovie and Ron Turner will be in trouble, and I would not be surprised to see a new offense being installed in 2009. That could totally change what we are looking for in a QB.

I still think if they are truly objective in their evaluation of the QBs we have, Orton will win the job. He has a strong arm, he is durable, and can actually read the field. He may not have the highest ceiling, but he also doesn't have the lowest floor. We would all love to have Peyton Manning-like production at the position, but what we need is more like Eli Manning production. We need a guy to lead in the huddle other than Olin, and a guy who can make a play when the game is on the line. We don't necessarily need a 4,000 yard passer, but a 3,500-4,000 yard guy would make a world of difference.

I hadn't done the math until today, but 4,000 yards is only 250 yards per game. If we get 11 yards a completion (what Griese and Grossman averaged in 2007), that is 23 completions a game. If we get a 60% completion percentage, that means we would have to throw 38 times per game. That means we need first downs, and we need to keep the offense on the field for longer than 3 plays on each drive. That means better offensive line play, better running game, and better utilization of our weapons.

For comparison, David Garrard, Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady, and Peyton Manning averaged 12 yards per completion. Derek Anderson averaged 12.7.

We are not too far off from this. 1 yard per completion is all we need to make a difference. And in the run game, three quarters of a yard per carry puts us in the top 10 in the league. Improved QB play, better run game performance, but most importantly, improved offensive line play is what gets us that extra yard per play. Can Orton or Grossman get us that yard with better blocking? I think so. Can Benson/Forte/Wolfe get 2.5 feet more on each run with better blocking? I think so. Can our WRs and TEs get open with a second longer of pass protection? That's the question I would like answered, because I don't see a lot of potential in that group. The TEs are going to be solid, if not spectacular, but Marty Booker, Brandon Lloyd, Mark Bradley, Rashied Davis, Devin Hester, and Earl Bennett doesn't inspire much confidence. Marcus Monk has the bloodlines, but that would be to replace Lloyd if he makes it.

One yard on every play will make us contenders on offense. Scary, isn't it?

Joe F.: Like your breakdown of QB stats. Very inciteful and I agree with you, if the offense is as inept in 2008 as 2007, Turner and Lovie may both be gone. One area that you did not account for is turnovers and sacks. Even if you complete at a 60% clip (pretty high compared to league avg), fumbles, intercepts and sacks can be killers. Every time Grossman gets sacked, he retreats like a Frenchman for a minimum 12-15 yd loss. Anyhow... great job trying to break things down. Keep up the good work!!!

I don't think drafting one guy is going to give us the QB we're looking for. I believe a solution starts by simply bringing in a number of free agents & draft choices every off-season like some other teams and increase your likelihood of finding a gamer. The Bears don't even bother looking, that's what pisses me off.

Man, you must be bored. It's way too early to say this yr's NCAA QB class will be subpar. There were several heady QB's that performed well in bowl/conf cham gms that will be back. Most of them are in the SEC. Let's wait until the gms are played before writing them off.

I'm glad the Bears passed on a QB in the draft. Why waste a pick if there's no booger? (Hey, I just thought of that!)

If Sexy Rexy can play the way he did against the Raiders, Seahawks and Giants before he got injured I think we'll be fine. Again, we have to remember Sexy will have more time to pass and our running backs will actually have holes to run through this year. Our defense will be better, don't forget, adding Okwo and Bazuin and payne is almost like having three more rookies coming in, but with more exerience.

I feel we can do it with Orton with better line play as well.
I really believe that Hester/Bradley can do it - Bradley has to stay injury free but at the end of last year he was showing his old self and if he plays like that he will be our #1 by far does any one remember what he was doing before the injury? Great WR! Hester WILL stretch the field no doubt and his cross routes are awsome. I like the way you broke it doen Joe, injuries and line play will be key. I want to see more Orton damnit! and I am a Rex fan (but it's Orton's time now)
How about a list of FA QB'S next year just for fun (You know JA won't use it)

Joe: Rex and Griese never had 11 yards a completion nobody has, not Brady not Manning no one. 11 yards would be a first down every completion. Rex averaged 6.3 yards per attempt. Thats all going on completion is not going to help your math. You only get so many attempts per game. The Bears passed more than they ran last year they averaged about 28 passing attempts per game. They had to do that because they couldn't run. If you throw 38 times a game, you are almost not running the ball at all. Which makes the offense very very one demensional. 60 percent accuracy?? Rex will not get you that. Plus the more you throw the lower the completion percentage is and the higher the interception rate becomes. This is not a passing team, they don't have the WR talent. There not even close. Joe 38 attempts, is that all??? Hahahaha cmmon man thats insane. Not to mention we don't have a three and out defense, we have the bend don't break defense which actually needs the offense to run more then pass in order to control the clock. You leave them on the field to long and they start to break. The players start to break, they get beaten sensless in the 4th quarter, they give up points late. The Colts don't pass the ball that much, the Pats don't either, your asking for Rex to suddenly jump into the Relm of Manning and Brady. Two future hall of fame players. Hahahahaha. Sorry man I don't mean to laugh, buit 38 attempts per game. Thats, boy thats a lot. Maybe he will go from being a bad QB to one of the best ever. Cause we got Booker, Lloyd, hester, Davis, Bennett and Bradley, oh and Forte and a rookie LT. Hahahahah, sure ok. Dude hold on to your dreams they will keep you warm on those cold chicago nights when Rex is limping off the field after another bad outing. Dude and history is so on my side on this one, it's Rex, just llok at his numbers. He can't even throw an out pass. If it's not deep it's not Rex. Oh man all he has to do is Pass 38 times a game with a 60% average for 4000 yards, anything else you want like 50 TD's and only 8 int's and then where set.

One yard on every play will make us contenders on offense. Scary, isn't it?

Sigh...yes, the big problem of small change. Good post, Joe.

i don't think grossman could start for the chicago rush. i have no idea who qbs for that team but i'm sure he's better. I can only hope that the bears cut him in training camp. i can wish in one hand and crap in the other and I know which one will get full first.

I think the bears situation with the recievers might pan out. berrian was afriad to block and dropped a lot of ball. moose just plain sucked. i remember when he came to chicago that some people were concerned that he only produced during contract years, that seems to be the case.
i'm thinking that the the wideouts might look something like this
1. marty booker
2. mark bradley
3. earl bennett
4. rashied davis
5. curtis hamilton or marcus monk

i doubt lloyd will make the team. i have a feeling that they may ir monk for the season, if not later to curtis hamilton. as for hass and redieu (however its spelled) i think they'll be gone. hass doesn't play special teams and that other guy might not be as talented as monk or hamilton.
ohh and hester... I heard that hester doesn't want to be a full time reciever and he expects to only to used 4 or 5 times a game. i know what he's saying doesn't mean much but when you're the best returner ever you might get what you want
really its anyone's guess

the defense and special teams have an identity. when they are healthy their is almost no speculation about either but the offence meh....... i'd love to see the bears offense become a smash mouth power running machine, like the steelers were when they won the super bowl. maybe i'll have to be like a cubs fan and wait for next years draft to get a qb to fit that bill. realistically our best bet on offense is that our o-line can actually block and forte can average more than 3 years a carry.


This is what the WR look like now and when the season opens.
Bradley#1 Unproven, untested, did not know the offense enough to get on the field, major injury issues.
Booker#2 a posetion guy with worse handsthan Moose and who has not been as productive as Moose in his career, has injury issues and is slow. Those are facts plain and simple. Runs very crisp routs.
Davis#3 Slot reciever now and when the season starts.
Hester#4 Has no clue what he is doing out there
Bennett#5 Back up to Davis, does not know the offense at all and Davis is solid so he will not get by him.

Lloyd is gone and Monk will be on the practice squad. If Lioyd is not gone his first fit would be in the slot and being a vet you know Lovie would place him above Bennett.

Creighton,
Griese's stats:

161 completions, 1803 yards=11.2 per completion

Grossman:
122 completions, 1411 yards=11.57 per completion

The yards per attempt is probably a better stat to measure, but we are looking at a crappy offense, so we need to improve in all facets. Griese was 17th in the league in Yards per attempt at roughly 6.9, and 21st in completion percentage at 61.5% (Grossman was 29th and 32nd in the same categories). We surrendered 42 sacks on the year, threw 21 INTs, and averaged a measly 3.1 yards per carry. The league leaders in YPA are Brady at 8.32 and Romo at 8.1. Brady leads the way in completion percentage at 68.9%, followed by Pennington at 68.8%. No way are we going to get into that category, but let's set some reasonable targets:

YPA: 7.03--would qualify as 15th in the league this year
Completion % 62.3%--15th in the league

Figure 33 attempts per game, rather than my original thought of 38. That would get us roughly 232 yards passing per game, and around 21 completions. (over the season, 336 completions, 528 attempts, 3712 yards) Those numbers would compare favorably to anything we have put up in years. If we can protect the QB, the defense has to stay honest. Maybe our WRs are nothing to be scared of, but if we utilize Clark and Olson (Davis if we have to as a 3rd tight end) like Indy used Clark and Utecht, we can be respectable in the passing game. All Booker, Bradley, Hester, Davis, Bennett, and Monk/Lloyd/Hass/Rideau have to do is keep the corners honest, and we can abuse the safeties and linebackers all day long.

The running game needs to be more effective, but having 5 healthy linemen will make a difference. They will need some time to gel, but hopefully they will get a lot of time together early in the preseason and camp to get comfortable working together. I am concerned that we don't have anyone that can play next to Williams to help him. Ruben Brown would have been a nice insurance policy to help him get used to the speed of the game. But we don't have any proven players to work on the left side, and I do not think Garza should be allowed on the left side after the way he played last season.

Make no mistake about it, we have a long way to go. But consistency at QB, a healthy line, and utilization of the twin TE set will make it a much more interesting season on offense.

By next April the Bears will not need a franchise QB, because in my opinion they already got one by the #18. Yeah thats right, I think ol neck beard will be our QB and I'll explain why. A lot of fans have held Orton unfairly to his play in 2005 when Orton was clearly not ready to play. Orton needed to sit and watch for a season or two which I think is actually better for most young QB's anyways, not every QB is ready to play straight out of college you see. Orton needed work on some of the basic fundamentals of quaterbacking, namely the center snap exchange then sitting his feet to throw. Orton also had to learn the offense. Orton had the entire 2006 season and most of the 07 season to do so. When Orton finally got his chance at the tail end of the 07 season, I was impressed. Inside of just three games Orton could have eaisly thrown 6tds to one int had it not been for the bad wide receiver play, some of the blame also is due to the fact that Orton was not in sync with the receivers either although. Had he been in sync with the wide outs more I really think Ortons numbers would have been more impressive. Also Orton was extreamly cool in the pocket especially in the Green Bay game in the frigid weather. Even in his first action vs the Vikes Orton was very cool under pressure, heck the Bears could have easily won that game had Orton and Berrian connected on the hail mary at the end there. This leads back to what I was saying earlier about being more in sync with his wide receivers. Orton I feel has all the tools to be a franchise QB. Orton has the big league arm, the pocket presence, and I like his ability with the short to intermediate passes. I think with a little more game time, improved play from the o-line, run game,and Orton will be the Bears QB so GO BEARS!!

I believe the fact that the Bears are making it Rex/Orton Job to win shows they are ready for Orton to arrive, I think they saw alot in Orton and are thinking if Rex does not put up fast they will shut him up for Orton from the first game.
I also feel the Bears are going to make Hester a deep threat - that's why they let Berrian go. They didn't need 2 deep threats.
But remind me again why we drafted a TE? Blocker? goal line?

Creighton cant you come up with an original blog. Seems some one will put up something and it sparks you to blog the same blog.

I am going to break down Mooses and Bookers stats over the years.

Marty Booker:509 REC 6,311 yards 12.4 avg 34 TDs 128 games played out of a possible 144 games. In 1999 he only played in 9 games. In 2003 Booker missed 3 games because of injury the most games he missed in his career.2007 Booker missed 1 game in 2006 missed 2 games 2005 and 04 missed 1 game 03 missed 3 games 2002 and 2001 played all 16 games and in 2000 missed 1 game.Those number arnt going to land him in the Hall of Fame, but he has been the most productive Bears WR since Ditka and Ditka was a TE.

Muhsin Muhammad:742 REC 9,934 YDS 13.4 AVG 56 TDs 172 games played out of 192.

Well Mooses numbers are alot better but there is a good reason why. Muhammad in his years with the Panthers, Had play makers around him. Carolina was blessed with a great running game, very acurate QB play, a strong O-Line and a hughe play maker in Steve Smith.Dont forget when Moose was with the Panthers his best seasons came in a contract years. Lets break that down.

1999: last year of his rookie contract 1,253 yds and 8 TDs
2000: Signed a one year deal. 1,183 yds and 6 TDs
2001: Signed a 4 year deal. From 2001-2003 he had 2,245 yards and 7 TDs. Thats only 748 yards a season and a little over 2 TDs on AVG.
2004: Last year of his contract. 1,405 yards and 16 TDs.
Moose played when he wanted to. Hes a spoiled brat that loves to whine alot.

Numbers dont lie but they sure can be deceiving.
With all those numbers up, Creighton you had posted that Booker has not been as productive as Moose, Well lets look outside the Box. Put Booker on the Panthers for his career and Booker could have been one of the elite WR in the NFL. Now lets look inside the Box. Booker as I can remember had QBs in Cade McNown, Shane Mathews, Henry Buris, Jim Miller and a handful of others. Thats only the Bears QBs how many QBs did he see in Miami? If someone can find out Im curious. Numbers wise yes Moose is a more productive WR, but Booker always makes the best with what he has, and for the past 5 years Booker has had dung for QBs.
Creighton as far as injury again the nubers dont lie. He has missed a total of 16 games in his career and 6 of those games came in his rookie year.He didnt miss 6 game due to injurys it was a coaches dissition.
Those are the Official facts. Plain and simple.

For all of you who are complaining about not taking the oh-so talented Brohm or Henne, in the second round, let me give you a list of the second AND third-round QB's selected since Brett Farve was taken in 1991.

1992
2 40 Matt Blundin Virginia Kansas City Chiefs
2 46 Tony Sacca Penn State Phoenix Cardinals


1993
3 58 Billy Joe Hobert Washington Los Angeles Raiders

1995
2 45 Todd Collins Michigan Buffalo Bills
2 60 Kordell Stewart Colorado Pittsburgh Steelers
3 80 Stoney Case New Mexico Arizona Cardinals
3 84 Eric Zeier Georgia Cleveland Browns

1996
2 42 Tony Banks Michigan State St. Louis Rams
3 85 Bobby Hoying Ohio State Philadelphia Eagles

1997
2 42 Jake Plummer Arizona State Arizona Cardinals

1998
2 60 Charlie Batch Eastern Michigan Detroit Lions
3 86 Jonathan Quinn Middle Tennessee State Jacksonville Jaguars

1999
2 50 Shaun King Tulane Tampa Bay Buccaneers
3 77 Brock Huard Washington Seattle Seahawks


2000
3 65 Giovanni Carmazzi Hofstra San Francisco 49ers
3 75 Chris Redman Louisville Baltimore Ravens

2001
2 32 Drew Brees Purdue San Diego Chargers
2 53 Quincy Carter Georgia Dallas Cowboys
2 59 Marques Tuiasosopo Washington Oakland Raiders

2002
3 81 Josh McCown Sam Houston State Arizona Cardinals

2003
3 88 Dave Ragone Louisville Houston Texans
3 97 Chris Simms Texas Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2004
3 90 Matt Schaub Virginia Atlanta Falcons

2005
3 67 Charlie Frye Akron Cleveland Browns
3 69 Andrew Walter Arizona State Oakland Raiders
3 85 David Greene Georgia Seattle Seahawks


2006
2 49 Kellen Clemens Oregon New York Jets
2 64 Tarvaris Jackson Alabama State Minnesota Vikings
3 81 Charlie Whitehurst Clemson San Diego Chargers
3 85 Brodie Croyle Alabama Kansas City Chiefs

2007

2 36 Kevin Kolb Houston Philadelphia Eagles
2 40 John Beck Brigham Young Miami Dolphins
2 43 Drew Stanton Michigan State Detroit Lions
3 92 Trent Edwards Stanford Buffalo Bills

35 QBs
0 Super Bowl appearances
3 Pro Bowl QBs
4 Regular staters for three or more seasons
12 Regular starters for at least one season

And of those who did anything -- Stewart, Plummer, Brees -- only one was consistent.

The skinny?

You are better off picking a QB in later rounds or getting one off the scrap heap than thinking you will get anything out of the "steals" in the second or third round.

Why? Less than 10 percent of such QB actually do anything.

The Bears did the right thing by passing on those guys.

But should they need someone next season, they should be able to address it next season with a first-round pick, or free-agent.

They are better off doing either.

Brees the Boilermaker
Orton the Boilermaker
I rest my case

This is what the WR look like now and when the season opens.
Bradley#1 Unproven, untested, did not know the offense enough to get on the field, major injury issues.
Booker#2 a posetion guy with worse handsthan Moose and who has not been as productive as Moose in his career, has injury issues and is slow. Those are facts plain and simple. Runs very crisp routs.
Marcus Monk#3 Slot reciever now and when the season starts.
Hester#4 Has no clue what he is doing out there
Bennett#5 Back up to Davis, does not know the offense at all and Davis is solid so he will not get by him.

Lloyd is gone. If Lioyd is not gone his first fit would be in the slot and being a vet you know Lovie would place him above Bennett.

It is becoming apparent to me and I'm sure to NFL GM's that drafting a QB in the early rounds is a huge mistake. They either get injured, get prounded into self-doubting head cases, stuggle for two or three losing seasons, or sit and do nothing. Then they become free agents after three seasons and move on to another team when they finally have a chance to help the home team. Angelo did good not to waste a draft pick on a questionable QB in a weak draft. It's best to go looking for that young free agent QB, who has been in the NFL a few years and is no longer a fit on one team but can blossom here.

Why would you put a 6'4" WR in the slot? Monk is an outside receiver without question. With his speed, size, and hands, he would be our next version of Marcus Robinson, only faster. You put him as a backup or red zone option for the passing game, and leave him out of the slot. Bennett, Hester, and Davis are your slot receiver guys. You want good route runners in the slot, but guys that are not capable of getting off the jam at the line tend to migrate to the slot. You also put them in motion a lot more, which creates even tougher matchups for the defense. Hester on the move before the snap is a scary proposition for the defense to handle. Imagine him at full speed at the snap. He should be able to get open all day long, regardless of what route he runs.

I was looking at your draft picks and ithink you should look at John Parker Wilson, KnowShon Moreno, Alex Boone, Jeff Owens, Malcolm Jenkins,Patrick White, Brian Robiskie, and James Laurinaitis.

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This page contains a single entry by Brad Biggs published on April 30, 2008 8:40 AM.

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