Chicago Sun-Times

It adds up to 6-10

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The boss ordered it up—the annual forecast of wins and losses that comes along with the release of the NFL schedule. In the midst of negotiations for an expense-paid trip to the 2009 Pro Bowl, I was in no position to beg off.

I’m not sure if I have ever been within a few games of actually being correct when it comes to this. So much can change between now and training camp, let alone the beginning of the season, and for the Bears’ sake they better hope there is some change.

The NFC North would appear to be at least somewhat up for grabs following the retirement of Brett Favre in Green Bay and his follow-up comments to that in which he asserts he’s done playing. Never say never. The Packers still have some developing young talent and they didn’t win 13 games by mistake in 2007. The Vikings have a fabulous running back in Adrian Peterson, a dominant offensive line, a deep threat in Bernard Berrian and an improving defense led by Leslie Frazier. It’s up to quarterback Tarvaris Jackson and the offensive guru in Brad Childress for them to take the next step. Rod Marinelli is finishing his work with the push broom in Detroit, reshaping the roster from top to bottom. Somewhere, quarterback Jon Kitna certainly is talking about 10 wins, right?

Predictions by colleagues Mike Mulligan, Jay Mariotti and Rick Telander will appear in Wednesday’s edition. Here is my haphazard effort:

Sept. 7 at Indianapolis, Loss. If Rex Grossman reclaims the job in training camp, it will mark the 34th change in starting quarterbacks in a span of 140 regular-season games. That doesn’t mean we’re counting out Kyle Orton in this space, however.

Sept. 14 at Carolina, Loss. Muhsin Muhammad ought to be able to find a quarterback to blame on this day, right? Since the league expanded to a 16-game schedule in 1978, 234 teams have started 0-2. Of those, 27 have gone on to reach the playoffs (11.5 percent). You say the odds are daunting. I say the Super Bowl champion New York Giants lost their first two games last season. Of course, nine others began 0-2 and look where that got Atlanta, Buffalo, Kansas City, Miami, New Orleans, the New York Jets, Oakland Philadelphia and St. Louis. Nowhere.

Sept. 21 TAMPA BAY, Win. Not sure what the Bucs are doing collecting quarterbacks and wide receivers this offseason. The aging defense needs help from a running game.

Sept. 28 PHILADELPHIA, Loss. No Brian Griese. No headset malfunction. No fun.

Oct. 5 at Detroit, Loss
. The Lions could still be finding their way under new offensive coordinator Jim Colletto but there is life after Mike Martz.

Oct. 12 at Atlanta, Win. Mike Vick’s flag football team in Leavenworth, Kan., could be more compelling by Week 6 than the Falcons.

Oct. 19 MINNESOTA, Loss. Adrian Peterson’s romp through Soldier Field last season was an example of what happens when the weaknesses of the Tampa Two are combined with bad tackling, really bad tackling.

Nov. 2 DETROIT, Win. Being swept by the Lions isn’t an option, is it?

Nov. 9 TENNESSEE, Loss. Without a very potent running game, and with Justin Gage as the Titans leading receiver, this bunch made the playoffs in 2007.

Nov. 16 at Green Bay, Win. How many more wins will it take for Lovie Smith to get a street named after him in Title Town?

Nov. 23 at St. Louis, Win. In a normal year, the Rams’ 2007 effort merits the No. 1 pick in the draft.

Nov. 30 at Minnesota, Loss. Don’t laugh. Gus Frerotte could be piloting the Vikings in time for the holidays. Minnesota has won seven of the last 10 at home against the Bears and Peterson might be the new Randy Moss when it comes to playing the Bears.

Dec. 7 JACKSONVILLE, Loss. Yes, the Bears liked David Garrard when he came out of East Carolina in 2002 as a fourth-round pick. Yes, Garrard’s name surfaced in trade talks a few years ago. The Jags were pretty smart to keep him.

Dec. 11 NEW ORLEANS, Win. Bear weather and the Saints just don’t mix.

Dec. 22 GREEN BAY, Loss. A win here and the Bears split their divisional games. A loss at the end of a season of disarray, and change will be afoot.

Dec. 28 at Houston, Loss. The Texans have quietly done a credible job of rebuilding in the post-Dom Capers era. Remember, the Bears couldn’t beat them when they came to Soldier Field in the freezing conditions in 2004. That was a bad Texans team they faced that day.

6-10.

Based on past prognosticating efforts five months before a season begins, it promises to be within six or seven games of being accurate. If it doesn't, I'll surely be hearing from the man in charge and he's liable to rename this little outpost on the World Wide Web "Outside the Bears."

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48 Comments

Hmmm...I'm not sure why we would lose to GB the 2nd time around. If there's one thing Lovie has proven, it's that he can take out the Packs on a consistent basis. As for the Vikes...their QB is really bad. The Bears have proven their D can shut down even the best of running games (San Diego, Chiefs, Minnesota (Mon. Night)) if they focus on doing so. Peterson is not that much of a threat if a team is prepared for it. Even the 49ers shut him out. Also Biggs, are you implying that Gus Frerotte taking over as the Vikes' QB is a scary thing? He's pretty bad himself. Actually, I would take Tarvaris over him. Lastly, Houston and Tennessee shouldn't be a problem. They're O.K. at best.

6-10 could easily be 4-12 or 7-9 either way it all adds up to 16 and that is what is important. Bears need a miracle draft, all there picks need to be good and Detroit, Minn, and the Cheese heads need to have bad drafts.

After defending Angelos offseason moves you pick the bears to go 6-10? come on bradd! offensive line aside,and with tough AFC games I still hope the bears can win 10! on the defensive side we have players like brown,dovorick,okwo, payne, wilson,and bausine coming back and(knock on wood) healthy. these are high draft picks expected to make the team and contribute, and if our "D" stays healthy it may be the best in the NFL. also Tommie Harris was'nt completly healthy but our fate as always lies in the hand of rusty jones. oh, and luck of good health.

I'm wondering if this year for Adrian Peterson will be a similar year the one Reggie Bush had as his second year. And I wonder if the bears will learn from their mistakes in letting the mouse (Peterson) escape the trap too often and if the bears have realized they have to do to Peterson what they did to LT. Our D has been known for its potentcy and revered through the ages, and to let one individual such as Peterson make our whole D look like a car that's out of gas is unacceptable!!!! I fully understand the predictions on the losses of Jacksonville, Indie, and the Titans. But for the love of God, the Texans? The Panthers? Seriously? We can't get a bit more credit than that? I just hope that we can ultimately pull our team together and realize that they have a job to do and a part of that job is to prove all the skeptics wrong, including the fans who are skeptics. Da Bears!

I think 6-10 would be great...but I think Creighton's 4-12 is more likely.New Orleans will be back in the playoff picture next year.

6-10 is a fair estimate. What did the Bears show us in 2007? They were hot and cold (mostly cold, like deep freeze) and they couldn't put together two wins in a row until the end of the season. They had trouble tackling and the offense played like their shoeslaces were tied together. Still, the jury is out on the Bears. If they solidify the line and the defense gets mean again, they could host a playoff game.

The Chicago media is the biggest bunch of negative writers in existance, They are all shock jock writers with little knowledge of what they are writing about. When does the class city of Chicago going to get some newpapers that actually have qualified sports writers?

you have to be kidding me!!! we don't beat any teams that we are close with?? if we can get a back in the draft and fix our o-line we should be fine offensively. D should be back and strong and hungry. we beat carolina, tampa, st. louis, atlanta, houston, and no plus gb, minn, and det once each. 10-6 and wild card. Teams bounce back the year afer the year after the superbowl.
Go Bears!!!

although i disagree with how they get there, i still see the bears finishing 6 - 10...

with that in mind, should the bears draft mendenhall with 14 and take the best available OL in the second?

i thought they would definitely take an OL in the first round, but after seeing the schedule i think the bears will be lucky to get 7 or 8 wins (that's if hester can play more out of his shoes and carry us on his back further than last year).

if they're gonna suck anyway, why not get a sick RB, address the OL/QB/WR positions later and let rex or kyle get cranked all year, who cares, neither one of these guys is the answer when all is said and done anywho.

OL don't come out and make a difference immediately anyway (joe thomas excluded), they're better taken off other people's teams (who can develop them) when they become free agents.

benson is a bust (severe case of the itis), and let's please not give urlacher some insane amount of $$ when he's clearly not a dominant LB in the NFL anymore. same goes for tommie harris, until he can prove that he's the best and most CONSISTENT DL in the game, let's not pay him that way. what are we, the raiders?

i'm not trying to come off anti bear, because i bleed navy and orange. i hope rex grossman, or kyle orton, or BOTH throw for 35 TDs this year and Mike Brown plays in every game thru the playoffs and walks off the field a winner and MVP after SB XLIII, but let's be realistic.

the bears have numerous glaring weaknesses, starting with the coaching staff (see deer caught in headlights/ inability to adjust at halftime) and ownership (the 7th most valuable franchise in professional sports as per forbes magazine 2007 can't spend a dime on upgrading a team with potential), and ending with overpaid special teamers (see adam archuleta).

we need a serious upgrade in talent, especially on the offensive side of the ball!

Go Bears!!!

Six and Ten. How pitiful! This team was in the Super Bowl 14 months ago. If the Bears are going to go 6-10 why aren't they in full rebuild mold? They will have the WORST offense in the NFL and a defense that will play their guts out but won't be able to win games all by themselves. They need to be looking for franchise QBs and RBs but they will draft OTs (which they also need),Guards, Defensive tackels and safeties.

It appears that Brad would rather not make a prediction this early, there is much activity left in the off-season. The sun-times and others should at least wait to make predictions until after the draft.
If you thought Brad's article was negative, just wait for Mariotti's article to come out, if he predicts anything good I'll be shocked. Also, with the parity in the league and even more so in the NFC North, I wouldn't put any stock in these predictions, we were predicted to run away with the NFC North last year and look what happened.

I'm sorry, but everyone seems to be forgetting that the Bears were in every game they lost last year except the Dallas game. Their D fell apart at the end of the game (see first game against Lions) because they had no running game to suck up the clock. If we have a good draft, (which is likely because its deep in what we need), we should be better than 6-10

I'm more of a 9-7 man, myself...I have a hard time seeing Detroit romp over Chicago like they did last year. The Vikings don't scare me. Yes, we all remember A.P. embarassing the Bears' Defense but the oft forgotten stalwart defense in Week 14 at Minnesota did not give Peterson much to work with. I also believe victory over the Panthers and Eagles is within easy reach, assuming the defense remains healthy. This team won't win a Super Bowl, but there's always next year.

Unbelievable how delusional some of the posts above are. Angelo will reliably draft one to two rookies and the offensive line will be effective? If you don't agree you're a negative hater and not really a Bears fan? It has really been an eye-opening offseason. After all these years I now see that the ownership is not the root problem. It's too many of the fans who will pay the higher ticket prices and show up to watch whatever team this stupid, cheap organization puts on the field. 6-10 is plausible, but don't be surprised if they're as bad as the Fish were last year. At least Ron Turner might finally get his butt kicked out of town, but of course don't bet on it.

The Bears finished 7-9 last year with mostly their 2nd string defense, Urlacher and Harris playing to half their former selves due to injury, a pitiful running game, and receivers who dropped every other pass that hit them in the hands (a fact that is not talked enough about on these boards. if the receivers caught half the passes they dropped there would be no qb controversy and the Bears would have made the playoffs). If the Bears stay healthy and get good production from two or three of their rookies then they should be at least 10-6, but staying healthy is the key.

did jay m right this....i'm am so tired of "bear fans" raggin on our team....yeah i'll admit we did nothing this off season but if you will remember we finished first a few years ago with 120 yards a game orten...and lets look at our division

detroit it terrible...
minnesota is one injury on the o-line from from losing a "dominant" run game
green bay's q-back has played like 5 combined quarters in the last 4 years....

it's not like we can't take 4 of those games.....after that what... we have 3 games which are gonna real tough....jag's colts and titans....relax

and i'll prob regret sayin this...but if we get any protcetion, rexy can be plenty sexy and with a one year contract he's got money to earn...i know we lost berrian but can you honestly say hester can't run those same straight deep routes...

any way stop the hating and enjoy your team...please i'm from jersey, a real die hard, and i'm still stickin with them.....despite the talk i talk caus eof the f-ing giants

I'm sorry but other than @ Indy, what game is not winable. Did we forget 05 when we had absolutely no offense with rookie neckbeard and we won 11 games after starting 1-3. I really think that if we can stay healthy we can win 12 games. We have the same defense, with more experience with all key players just comming into prime. (Harris , Briggs, Vasher, Tillman..) If Mike Brown can somehow play a full year we will win 12 games. I Don't think people realize how important he is. I know we can't count on him but the last 14 games he started and completed we won!!! This is coming from a pesimistic bear fan ...ususally. I Don't think the Vikings will win 8 games...the Lions are Doing a overhaul , and I don't think the Packers can stay completely injury free again. Heck, 8 wins could win this division. GO BEARS.. also, why is it that we get a report on every lineman and running back the bears meet with for the draft, but when they met with Mendenhall last Thursday nothing was mentioned about the workout?. Is jerry creating a smokescreen do the right thing and select Mendenhall. I hope So. The Lineman we draft won't be able to help vs. Indy and how is Benson rehab coming anyhow? Do we even have a starting Running back?

Here are a few questions and points.

Why wouldn't Detroit and Minn sweep the Bears again this year. They did it last year, and while the ViQueens and the Lions both improved in the off season the Bears have gotten worse. So how do the Bears beat them this year?

There is a chance the bears loose to the Pac at least once.

Who says the Bears will all stay healthy?

The Vikes and the Lions have had some decent draft picks of late that are making a difference, who made a difference for the Bears last year when they where 7-9?

I wouldn't consider last years San Diego game a good bench mark. LT and the Chargers played like garbage early on in the season.

We lost by 11 to the Chargers

The Bears beat the chiefs at home by 10, there one of the worst teams in football top 5 in suck. So not real impresive.

We beat the Raiders by 11, again a real bad team.

We barley got by the Broncos and nobody on this planet knows why they kicked to Hester.

With the Saints game they where not really healthy either and we got lucky with Hester again.

If teams don't kick to Hester how many games do we win. I think Hester could be a great Wide Out but not this year, he needs a lot more experience.

Considering the Bears beat the Pac twice last year, you would have thought they won the division. But the came in last.

This draft will not save the Bears offense. It will take a few years just like it does with most teams.

Who says the Bears are not rebuilding?? Last time I checked when you are in the Market for 2 starting WR, 3 offesive Linemen, a starting RB and a Franchise QB you are without a doubt rebuilding. You just don't call it that so hopefully you will sell more tickets.

Does anyone remember what Lovie used to say in 06? "We got to strike while the iron is hot a team usually only peaks for a couple of years". Well it was a couple years. Thats how long they built the team for, they new the oline wouldn't last long and probably thought they could get by one more year last year. But it didn't work.

In 2005 the Bears where 1st in points allowed and 26th in points scored

In 2006 they where 3rd in points allowed but where 2nd in points scored.

In 2007 they where 16th in points allowed and 20th in points scored.

Differences between 05 and 06, Devin Hester, Bears also ranked 11th in takeaways in 05 and 4th in 06. In 06 turnovers helped the Bears D stay off the field, Hester scored 36 points, and the defense scored 21 points and Jones had 1200 plus yars rushing and 6td's, Benson also had 6td's and 650 yards. Those two helped keep the D fresh and diversified the rushing game forcing Defenses to respect the run which helped open up the pass.

Between 06 and 07. The Bears had 14 rushing TD's in 06, and only 8 in 07, Benson proved he couldn't handle the load and got injured yet again. Teams no longer respected the run and the passing game suffered. Hester had an even better year, but the QB's threw only 18 tds to 21 int's. When the Bears couldn't establish the run they couldn't control the clock, the defense got over exposed and injuries began to happen.

The difference this year, the Bears lost BB and Moose, that is a loss of 1500 plus yars recieving and 8td's. They added Lloyd 14 yards and 0 td's and Booker 556 and 1td. So that is a -7 td's. Benson the starting RB is coming off major surgery and the coach is bringing in compitition to motivate him. Lovie said Benson has lost a step and wants him to get in shapethis year. The Bears also lost 2 starting offensive linmen, there backups last year where not good enough to replace aged starters who where playing bad. They have yet to be replaced but will be addressed in the draft. Olin and Tait are another year older and they need replacments to be drafted as well to prepare for there eventual loss. Griese there most effective QB last year is gone. Olsen is still probably a year away from being the number 1 TE and must learn to block.

If the Bears can't run the ball this year again they will have the same results as last year, there is no telling what the RB or Oline situation will be at this point, but the Bears need two starters on the line and could really use three and a starting RB. Will anyone kick to Hester this year?? I doubt it. He will be used part time as a WR which may wind up taking away from his return game. Mark Bradley did not play last year and there is no telling how he will do or hold up.

6-10 is a smart pick, if they have a great draft they could be as good as 10-6, however if they have a bad draft they could be a 4-12 team. I am going with 5 wins, I think even if we get some good rookies they will still need to be developed this year and that will take time. It will also lead to a top 3 pick and Tim Tebow, Crabtree, Oher, Wells, will be possible picks.

Thats about all there is to it, if they can control the clock it will better utalize the D, if they can't there up the creek. Either way by next year the whole oline will need to be rebuilt outside of a possible rookie or two. New QB, WR, DT, S, ILB, and maybe a RB if we don't find one this year.

I love to be as pessimistic as the next Bear's fan. Bear's fans are fantastic when it comes to throwing their team under the bus (often before the bus gets going)...so, hey we could go 3-13 this season and wind up with the #1 pick in the draft. Then again, as a pessimistic Bear's fan this would probably only get us the #4 pick in the draft. However, this time I've got to agree a bit with Joe. We went 7-9 without many of our starters on defense most of the season. Hell, our secondary missed most of the year AND our D-line was in and out all season WITH Tommie Harris banged up. IF (BIG, BIG IF) the D can stay healthy we SHOULD improve our record. 6-10 may be realistic, but so is 9-7. Heck, if you can be a pessimist, I'll attempt to be an optomist. We COULD go 10-6 and make the play-offs...And with a great draft and a healthy season....Who knows?... We could do even better.

What if the Bears stay healthy and REX bounces back? I for one prefer to think positive ...11-5 yeah baby!

THE BEARS WILL NOT WIN MORE THAN 8 GAMES AND WILL NOT MAKE THE PLAYOFFS!THEY HAVE NO OFFENSE,NO SAFTIES AND A HORRIBLE COACHING STAFF.LOVIE BETTER GET A NEW OFFENSIVE CO-ORDINATOR NEXT YEAR OR FORGET A SUPERBOWL RUN!START REBUILDING THE O-LINE,WR'S,QB AND RB NOW OR FORGET IT.LETS SEE IF THEY GET O-LINE THIS YR,QB NEXT YEAR AND RB YEAR AFTER THAT MAYBE THE DEFENSE WILL NOT BE TOO OLD AND THEY CAN GET BACK TO THE BOWL!!!

Hi eeverybody! I am Dave Parks, known as Mr. Originality all around my livingroom! I bleed the media and am the reason you voted in a congress that will kick your arse with taxes and gas prices!

The Bears will move to Green Bay after next season!

The Bears will finish 13-3 and will go to the super bowl again. All they have to do is stay healthy. If the Bears have a good draft, they will have a good year. All you crybabies who are so negative should be ashamed. Have faith in your team.

WOW I truly believe a lot of Bears fans didn't even watch Da Bears last year.
6-10 is realistic - I said 8-8 but 6-10 is probably closer.
`We showed we can stop the run' ?? What team were you watching last year?? The Vikes KILLED us. They still have an OL, something the Bears don't have. bad coaching or not they still killed us.
It was an act of courage to watch this team last year. :)

Creighton - Perfect!!! I like Lovie but it's true.
`the bears have numerous glaring weaknesses, starting with the coaching staff (see deer caught in headlights/ inability to adjust at halftime) and ownership (the 7th most valuable franchise in professional sports as per forbes magazine 2007 can't spend a dime on upgrading a team with potential), and ending with overpaid special teamers (see adam archuleta).'

I'VE BEEN ON THIS BLOG A FEW TIMES JUST AND I CAN HONSTLY SAY THAT 95% OF THE PEOPLE WHO POST ON THIS BLOG ARE NOT TRUE BEAR FANS.
OH YEA REX FOR PRESIDENT

Creighton you must be a lawyer or a salesman cause you be pouring it on kinda thick. All these predictions are to get you going they are irrelevant. But in the oof season after you have exausted all the pre-draft hype and that is settling down as it draws closer now the media has to stir something up to keep it going until draft day, and all you fell for it. Common sense would tell you most prognosticators are pulling guesses out of their you know where. The camps have to happen the games have to be played and the human condition cannot be accurately predicted. No draft changes a team immediately there's no lightning in a bottle at this point everyone is 0-0 and any other clique I can think of. Creighton you are way analytical to many stats, you don't always need a proponderance of evidence to make or believe in you point.

The Bears will be lucky 2 win 5 games next season.
Same coaches, same Qb, same result.

What make some of you guys think we will be good???!!! Do you think we are hiding four or five all pro players in the equipment room. Do you think that Mike Brown is faking it? Do you think Ron Turner knows what he is doing? Do you think we draft well.......Dan Bazuin in the second round????!!!! Do you think our defense ended on a high note? Do you think Hester can be a #1 reciever? Why was a cornerback who rode the bench in college? Besides ...do you think he wont get hurt? 13-3???!!! Are you on crack? Or are you looking at John St Clair's crack...our new right tackle....or maybe Terrence Metcalf's crack our new left guard. Do you think Cedric is gonna turn himself around, and be better after his broken ankle...or do you think he is faking it too. Marty Booker #1 reciever? Why do we like cast offs from other teams....Archuleta and Lloyd??? Are they gonna make us better? Tommie Harris cant stay healthy. I think 6-10 is very realistic!!!! Oh I forgot....Do you think Turnoversaurus Rex is good? Do you think he is gonna walk into Hallas Hall and say " Hey fellas, I was joking the whole time, Im gonna start doing things right."

Dear "mike in fort wayne",

The CAPS LOCK key is 1/4 of an inch away from the "A" key. Try it some time instead of giving everyone eye cancer.

As for the rest of you, I see some valid points. I think the main thing to realize is it's still April and way too early to start counting our chickens\wins\losses. From now until July there will be plenty of goings on in the NFL and we can watch the Bears' stock rise and fall.

For those believing in conspiracy theories, I watched the two hour special on ESPN last night as the 2008 schedule was released (stayed up til 2am and still dragging behind today) and - lo and behold - the farking Patriots get the easiest schedule in the NFL. I'm not quite sure how that works but I gotta believe Bill Belichik probably has some compromising video tape on the NFL schedule makers.

Finally if Biggs has the Bears going 6-10 this season my gut feeling is "Eddie Munster" may actually predict a negative win total.

// "Big Doug" frowns upon Biggsy's shenanigans.

The Bears will draft well this year . . . 10-6 and the playoffs.

Sorry BB, the packers DID win 13 games by accident last year. You may want to go back and actually WATCH some of their games. They will be middle of the pack this year; i.e. 8-8

The DEE-troit kitties will be back to the bottom where they belong, leaving the beloved MONSTERS to contend only with the vi-Queens for the division. Yes, AP (theirs, not ours) is a stud, WHEN HEALTHY. This poor (not financially) kid has had the injuries begin to add up on him. I say he will either be gone from the league or not a factor by the end of the 2009 season. The run defense in Minny is formidable, but their pass defense looks like there is four Mannings (Danieal or Ricky Jr. - take your pick) running around in the secondary.

GO BEARS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

True the injuries did hurt, but the Draft won't help much this year, rookies usually don't have an immediate impact, Vikes, Peterson had a great O Line to help don't forget. While we at best will have rookies at OLine. I do feel our D will be better especially with Dvoracek (monster man) in the trench with Harris. Being a Bears Fan has nothing to do with a non-realistic view of the team and it's won/lost record. I am very optimistic at 8-8. Anything can happen and 10-6 is possible but not realistic with what happened last year.

There's way too much pessimism in bearland. Yes, we haven't upgraded personnel at this point. But we will get a couple of good guys in the draft. But if there's any truth in the NFL it's that every season starts over and what you did last year doesn't matter. Everyone wants to say "we were 7-9 last year, have the same personnel but they're a year older so we have to play worse."

That's just not how it works. There's 8 teams every year that make a great turnaround up or down from prior year. Why? Because the margin between a W and an L is narrow as heck. It's about:

Staying Healthy
Playing well in the 4th quarter
Having a good turnover ratio
Not giving up big plays
Making some big plays - D, O, or special teams
Having balanced time of possession

Other than point 6 above, they can easily turn the rest around and equal success more like they're super bowl season. Point 5 only happens with improved QB and RB play which clearly is a big uphill battle.

Consistent health from Tommie, Nathan, Tillman, Brian, Briggs, Dvoracek, Alex, Anderson, and Bradley will cure alot, alot of ills. And McGowan, Kevin Payne, Greg Olsen and McBride will improve alot this year. Admittedly forget Daniel and Ricky Manning as anything other than journeymen.

Way, way to early to give on this team guys. I see 10-6 with good upside if the D is reasonably healthy and the young guys in secondary step up. And another layer of upside if we get 2 draft picks that contribute in year one.

Randell,
I pose the very same question to you: What team were you watching last year?

You didn't see the Bears hold LT to the 2nd lowest rushing yards/game of his career? Or how they shut down Larry Johnson? Or Clinton Portis? And yeah, the first time around AP humiliated the Bears. So? He did even worse to the (healthy and able D) Chargers who went on to the AFC divisional game. We had AP contained on Monday night. When the Bears focus on stopping a good RB, they can do it.

Creighton, this is the Bears Blog not the Bears' Online Book.
Let's keep it short and sweet and cut out all the reduntant stuff everybody knows, k?

AP was coming off an injury the second time the Bears played him. It's pretty simple at this point have the Bears improved. Answer no. They lost key players and did not replace them. Can they run the Ball. No there Oline and RB suck. Can they win without a solid running game. No the team spins off the run. Will the be healthy. It's football no team stays healthy. If you can't win because 3 or 4 starters go down then you are not that good of a team. Dusty was not a huge loss heck he has only ever played 1/2 a game and some people think he in the next Mongo, Brown is always hurt, relying on him is stupid. Rex has played about 8-9 good games in 5 years when he is not hurt, he is not a rookie you have seen what he is and it is not good. The Defense is not the end all be all, it is not as deep as it used to be and has injury issues, some key players are past there primes. The D will be solid but not great and will colapse in the 4th do to exaustion. The Offense will do nothing special.

Teams that rely on the draft to try and make there season a winning season are introuble from the begining.

5-11, they will win a meaningless game at the end of the season to take them out of the top 5 picks in next years draft. The first round Olinemen they draft his year will not see the field much.

Otah, Henne, 1 and 2. Unless Stewart drops that far. If The top 5 oline prospects are gone it will be Mendenhall and maybe Brown or Coliins in round 2. I like Brown better. If Mendenhall is gone, they will Take Brohm or the best WR on the Board, they may grab Stewart. If Ellis somehow falls they will grab him before anyone else they like. I would not blame them either, the guy is the Best DT in this class a pure monster.

The Bears can beat Tennessee. They always seem to play that "scrambling" type of QB pretty well.

The Bears can beat Minnesota once in either location....

I pegged them for 8-8 before seeing Biggs' breakdown.

Rookies don't usually have an immediate impact? Huh? I could see at QB, but not at other positions.

Wasn't AP a rookie last year?

WAY TO GO PHIL !! and I second that Mike. Even with all the problems last year they stayed with the SB champs and with the exception of the Dallas game were in all of those games. Even when AP went crazy that game with a little "O" was also winnable there will be some cap casualties and a free agent and they will continue on. This draft stuff has people in a fix-it frenzy, when it's healthy it will play better. I still insist they have a Pro_Bowl safety on the roster but they insist on playing him at cornerback, mark my words CHARLES TILLMAN CAN BE A PRO-BOWL SAFETY.!!!

DJ AND MIKE who me run on and on and on and on. Ok yeah I type way to much. How is this, No line=no run, Benson plus line=no run no catch, no line+no run=no time of posetion. No time of posetion on offense equals=no rest for defense. No rest for Defense=injuries, injuries+defense=no winning. Add it all together and you have 5-11. Factor in Rex and Benson and you have a possible 3 win season. Factor in Mendenhall and the bears go
16-0. For real.

You can't really factor in any draft for about three years. Development, injuries, busts and instant impact guys. Last years class doesn't look all that great at this point but who knows 2 years from now. Olsen had what 400 yards.

This is a 10-6 or 9-7 season with any kind of draft. The Vikes won't run over the Bears again (and no QB or pass rush), the Pack won't get big plays from Rodgers and their corners are members of AARP, the Lions still have Matt Millen and Kitna is older than my dad (and I'm 62).

What is the point to making predictions now with draft moves still looming? There is none. The next Adrian Peterson could fall in the Bears lap.

All we can really say is that the defense should be improved & Hester will continue to provide the Bears with decent field position. The biggest wild card is Hester playing 20-30 downs either at WR or as a HB. No one's ever seen that so it's wide open for impact.

I am a little surprised at all the negativity on this blog, when it seemed like everyone was pumped up about the draft and all the new players coming in. I am not going to sit here and say we will win the Super Bowl, but I sure as hell am going to say that we will take back this division. If you look at the North, it is Detroit who we will beat twice, and Minnesota, who we will beat twice, and Green Bay who we will hopefully beat twice, but may split with. I have faith in Ron Turner, in that he will figure out that using double tight end sets last season was our strength, so that needs to continue, and at the end of last season our defense was top 5 in the league those last 3 games, due to the fact that whatever Babich changed was working, and he needs to build on that this season. So, with that being said, I am going to say that when factoring in injuries that other teams may have problems with and the fact that we have all seen the Adrian Peterson Vikings 2 times, we will not give up 234 yards in a game this next season, period. I say that we will go 10-6, and get a playoff game. Da Bears!!!

What i do not understand is that even if we had a decent offensive line, the play calls would still be horrible. Every teams defense can read our offense and shut us down after we run the same plays that dont work week in and week out. As far as the defense, with guys coming back from injuries, should be interesting to see, but i think the Bears need to mix up the D a little more and mix it up a bit, we get killed on the short passes and sometimes at stuffing the run. I say move urlacher out to OLB and briing Briggs to middle.

Creighton I like to talk about the past season, but how can you compare what the Bears did last year to this year.
This is going to be a new look Bears with the Defence only looking to improve on a injury riddle season.
Im going to say the Bears on paper even to this point in the offseason still looks to be the best team in the NFC North.
Look at what has happen in the past since Lovie has been the coach.4-6 in 04 11-5 in 05 13-3 in 06 and 9-7 in 07.
Who knows it could be a bounce back year or a down hill slide.
Im not much on predicting an outcome but I will post that the Bears will go 12-4 with homefield advantage. Having the defense being the elite of the NFL.
Tommy Harris Defensive payer of the year.

This blog sucks, I agree with Kevin this blog is way too negative and the sports writers in this town are some of the harshest no hope having guys ever. If you support the team and give them praise when they deserve it and not kick them but encourage them when they don't deserve it then maybe we could make some progress. The bears should be able to bounce back and i really believe this will be the year for grossman and benson (the most criticized) as long as our line (the least criticized) makes some huge improvements. Don't say i didn't tell you so.

I will say it again,
Adrian Peterson had a great/awsome offensive line! Yes he's a great RB but the Bears have no freakin hope of getting an Adrian Peterson in the draft as the Bears have no offensive line! And as others have stated elsewhere it takes draft picks a few years to develop. Cmon they can not be counted on to elevate this team in the first year if they even play that much. I would hope our 1st pick starts out like a gang buster but what the f did Benson do his first year? And he was the 4th pick chosen.
It is not negativity, it is realism. I do hope we go 10-6 but I know we will go at best 8-8. As we have to depend on the draft for our offense and these players will take time to step up.
Actually we are worried about getting let down like last year....
GO DUSTY!! Dusty will be the next Pro Bowl DL for the Bears!!!

After the last 14 months how can ANYONE actually think the Bears have a chance of competing for the NFC North title? Since the victory in the NFC Championship (for the 2006 season) this team could be called the "Murphies." [My apologies to anyone who has a first or last name coinciding with the "Law of whatever can go wrong will go wrong!..."] Yes, the NFC North is among the weakest divisions overall along w/the NFC West (AFC West & East have more REALLY bad teams but better top teams) and yes, they could have 6-8 victories and compete for the division title. That being said, there SERIOUS NEEDS at QB, RB, WR, OT, OG, DT, SS, FS, & possibly CB!! This doesn't even include the issues with our best players at D-line (Tommy Harris), LB (Urlacher) and Special Teams (WR?) (Devin Hester)!!

With the need for the draft to bring in a tremendous amount of talent - basically to hit on EVERY pick (a ridiculous amount of pressure for the scouting staff, not to mention the odds of that to happen...) while simultaneously considering (with a couple of exceptions) how horrible the drafts of '05, '06 & '07 went...Sorry, it's hard to be optimistic under those conditions.

The combination of a dearth of talent and unsatisfied players --- not to mention what I believe to be a lower half to lower third ranking (within the NFL) of the front office and coaching staff --- leads me to conclude that there will not only be a low win total this year but for years to come. All which will lead to an overhaul of this coaching staff within 2-3 years, and possibly the whole front office and the next coaching staff a few years after that. That DOES sound terribly pessimistic, fellow Bears fans, but it seems the "window has closed" on this "Core."

Anonymous: "Look at what has happen in the past since Lovie has been the coach.4-6 in 04 11-5 in 05 13-3 in 06 and 9-7 in 07.
Who knows it could be a bounce back year or a down hill slide".

The Bears where 7-9 last year not 9-7. Now that we fixed that lets take a look at the team we have lost a lot of players on offense the last 2 years. Jones, Brown, Miller, BB, and Moose, all major cotributers to the Bears winning seasons and there superbowl year. All are gone. Benson had a major injury and will not be as good as he was last year and last year he was bad. Hester is unproven as a WR. The last time the Bears had a good offensive draft class Rockin Ronnie was the President. The last stud OT we drafted was Covert. The defense is injury prone and has been the last 4 years, so I won't count on them being healthy. In fact I wont count on any defense staying healthy in the NFL, it's football guys get hurt. If the offense can't control the clock this year the defense will break done like it always does when they don't control the clock. My last point no matter who we draft 90% of the time rookies need time to develop. Oline, even RB, so I will not count on some stud OT giving the Bears a pro bowl performance at LT next year and holding together an aging line that will still feature Tait(past his prime with gimmpy ankles) Olin(past his prime but still good), Garza(sucks), Metcalf(really sucks) That is not a stud oline I don't care if Ogden in his prime was at LT, that is a bad line. Also last I checked Turner is still in charge of the offense, didn't he get fired as a college coach for all his sucking and Lovie has not made a Halftime adjustment in 4 years and he has 2 winning seasons and two loosing seasons in 4 years. This is the guy who refused to swap his corners in the Caroline game even though Smith was killing Tillman and Vash is better at covering the small quick guys. He said it was because you normally don't do that in a cover two. Except that you actually can do it, but he wasn't sure if his guys could figure out what side of the field they where on.

The thing about predictions is that you never know how the other team will fare. Teams are picked to have great seasons and they might stink up the joint. Trying to predict what our record will be should also include the expected record of the opposing team. Will we have a 6-10 record because we can only beat whoever is in our division? But lose to everyone else? Why did GB lose twice to us last year but beat everyone else in our division soundly and we got beat by everyone and had a worse recod than all the rest. Sometimes you can't look at a schedule and say win, win, win, because it might be lose ,win,lose. I hate predicting because there are too many variable that go with it and you just never know. Other teams have injuries to key players right off the bat or later than they can rebound from. Losing Mike Brown against the Panthers in 2005 might have been the main culprit of us getting knocked out of the playoffs that year. Predictions are never easy. Remember; San Diego was going to win it all against Dallas and how did that turn out? And then it was a 18-0 season for the Pats who were supposed to cake-walk thru the season and stomp whoever they faced from the weak NFC. How did that turn out? And who picked the Giants but those New Yawkers? I won't say bad or good for us. Maybe in between and if it goes either way I won't be that surprised. I just want to be somewhat optimistic.

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This page contains a single entry by Brad Biggs published on April 15, 2008 5:36 PM.

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