Chicago's homicide rate dropped 11 percent in the first seven months of this year, when compared to the same seven months of last year. This has Police Supt. Jody Weis feeling "very encouraged" that his department's efforts are working.
But who really knows.
Crime rates dart up and down from year to to year for countless reasons -- the economy, the size of the population, the average age of the population, the weather, gangs, the supply line of drugs, the demand for drugs, the throw of the dice, whatever. The only numbers that really matter are those over time, such as ten-year and 20-year crime trends.
Veteran police officers, by the way, are always reluctant to take credit when crime rates drop.
Because they'll have to accept blame when crime rates jump.
Even the experts, says social scientist James Q. Wilson in the Los Angeles Times, admit to frustration in trying to nail down all the variables that explain why crime rates go up and down. He's looking for suggestions.
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During the record rash of Cook County killings in the early 1970s, skuttlebut in Branch 66 (homicide and sex preliminary hearing court at 26th and California) was that the bad buys were thinking that by killing their armed robbery victims, the best witness was unavialable for trial. Frustrating for prosecutors. Hard to quantify or verify.
But what is certain, today, is that prohibition is the single greatest contributor to the many shootings and mass killings in Chicago. The drug war is the all-time greatest mass murderer.
Al Capone and Pablo Escobar both favored the prohibition of their wares -- booz and drugs. If they're for prohibition, shouldn't we, the good guys, oppose it? Certainly.